River Flood Warning 50, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

283 
WGUS83 KFSD 271642
FLSFSD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...

  Big Sioux River near Estelline

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...Iowa...

  James River At Huron
  James River Near Forestburg
  James River At Mitchell
  James River Near Scotland
  James River Above Yankton
  Vermillion River Near Davis
  Vermillion River Near Wakonda
  Big Sioux River Near Bruce
  Big Sioux River Near Brookings
  Big Sioux River below Dell Rapids
  Big Sioux River At Sioux Falls I-90
  Big Sioux River At Sioux Falls North Cliff
  Big Sioux River above Hawarden
  Big Sioux River At Akron
  Little Sioux River near Milford
  Little Sioux River at Spencer
 
.The following river forecasts include forecast precipitation through
tonight. Any additional future rains could affect the crest 
forecasts. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Do not drive cars through flooded areas. the water 
depth and road condition may be unsafe.

Additional information is available at 
 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fsd

Stay tuned for further updates by listening to NOAA weather radio...
or your local radio and TV stations.

The next scheduled statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&

SDC005-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HURS2.3.ER.200305T0930Z.200321T1515Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River At Huron.
* until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 14.64 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.1 feet by 
  Tuesday March 31. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* At stages near 15.0 feet...Approximately 16000 acres of 
  agricultural land around Huron will be flooded. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4463 9833 4463 9821 4449 9810 4420 9810
          4420 9822 4447 9824

$$

SDC111-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FORS2.2.ER.200302T0425Z.200312T0916Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Near Forestburg.
* until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 14.91 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 15.5 feet by Thursday April 02.
* At stages near 16.0 feet...Most of the flood plain is under water, 
  and the water reaches the bottom of the bridge on Highway 34. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4420 9822 4420 9810 4402 9802 4393 9798
          4393 9812 4409 9816

$$

SDC035-061-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JRMS2.2.ER.200226T1615Z.200403T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River At Mitchell.
* until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 20.58 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.7 feet by 
  Thursday April 02.
* At stages near 21.5 feet...Shannard Road is flooded. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4393 9812 4393 9798 4370 9789 4340 9763
          4338 9777 4351 9797

$$

SDC067-135-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCOS2.3.ER.200303T1345Z.200401T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Near Scotland.
* until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 15.54 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 17.0 feet by Wednesday April 
  01 then begin falling.
* At stages near 18.0 feet...Highway 44 south of Milltown and Keiber 
  Road in Milltown will be flooded. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4338 9777 4340 9763 4321 9755 4308 9736
          4308 9750 4317 9769

$$

SDC135-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/YNNS2.3.ER.200308T0907Z.200402T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Above Yankton.
* until further notice.
* At 11AM Friday the stage was 15.09 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 15.1 feet by Saturday March 28
  then begin falling.
* At stages near 17.0 feet...SW Jim River Road near 303rd Street 
  begins flooding. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4308 9750 4308 9736 4298 9731 4287 9722
          4287 9737 4298 9741

$$

SDC011-057-271712-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0044.000000T0000Z-200327T1642Z/
/BSES2.1.ER.200325T1800Z.200326T0315Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Sioux River near Estelline.
* At 11AM Friday the stage was 1643.81 feet.
* Flood stage is 1644.00 feet.
* At stages near 1644 feet...Significant flooding of crop and pasture
  land begins. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4460 9700 4464 9695 4451 9683 4451 9690

$$

SDC011-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRCS2.1.ER.200325T0000Z.200326T1445Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River Near Bruce.
* until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 8.32 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.00 feet.
* At stages near 8.0 feet...The lower banks on the left side of the 
  river overflow. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4451 9690 4451 9683 4441 9688 4433 9686
          4433 9692 4443 9696 4448 9690

$$

SDC011-101-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRKS2.2.ER.200327T1445Z.200401T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River Near Brookings.
* until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 8.95 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.00 feet.
* Recent activity...The river rose above flood stage on Friday March 
  27.
* Forecast...Continue to rise to near 11.7 feet by Wednesday April 01. 
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At stages near 11.7 feet...473rd Avenue at 221st Street begins to 
  flood. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4417 9678 4420 9675 4414 9659 4410 9658
          4410 9666 4411 9666

$$

SDC099-101-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0046.200329T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/DERS2.1.ER.200329T1500Z.200330T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River below Dell Rapids.
* from Sunday morning until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 11.04 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday March 29 and crest near
  13.6 feet by Monday March 30.
* At stages near 14.0 feet...Significant amounts of agricultural 
  lands are flooded through the basin, and the park in Dell Rapids 
  begins to flood. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9674 4381 9672 4369 9671 4369 9676
          4373 9678 4379 9676

$$

SDC099-282042-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0045.200329T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
/SFLS2.1.ER.200329T0300Z.200331T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice... 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River At Sioux Falls I-90.
* from Saturday evening until further notice.
* At 11AM Friday the stage was 11.72 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday March 28 and crest 
  near 13.9 feet by Tuesday March 31.
* At stages near 15.0 feet...Some farm buildings between Renner and 
  Sioux Falls are threatened by high water. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4369 9676 4369 9671 4362 9672 4358 9672
          4356 9672 4357 9674 4359 9673 4360 9675
          4363 9676

$$

IAC119-SDC083-099-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0047.200330T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SXFS2.2.ER.200330T0000Z.200331T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River At Sioux Falls North Cliff.
* from Sunday evening until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 12.61 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday March 29 and crest near
  18.3 feet by Tuesday March 31.
* At stages near 18.0 feet...Significant amounts of rural land 
  downstream of Sioux Falls, and the salvage yard in extreme eastern 
  Sioux Falls, will begin to flood.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4356 9672 4358 9672 4358 9668 4359 9668
          4362 9664 4359 9665 4356 9667

$$

IAC149-167-SDC127-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0048.200330T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/HWDI4.2.ER.200330T0900Z.200401T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River above Hawarden.
* from late Sunday night until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 18.97 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.50 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday March 30 and continue 
  to rise to near 24.6 feet by Wednesday April 01. Additional rises 
  are possible thereafter.
* At stages near 24.0 feet...Some farm houses on the South Dakota 
  side of the river are isolated by high water. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4308 9654 4308 9641 4302 9646 4291 9649
          4291 9658

$$

IAC149-SDC127-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0049.200331T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/AKRI4.1.ER.200331T0000Z.200401T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River At Akron.
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At 11AM Friday the stage was   14.80 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is   16.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday March 30 and continue 
  to rise to near 17.8 feet by Wednesday April 01. Additional rises 
  are possible thereafter.
* At stages near 17.0 feet...About 6500 acres of farm land are 
  flooded. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4291 9658 4291 9649 4281 9654 4277 9659
          4278 9665

$$

SDC125-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0050.200401T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DVSS2.1.ER.200401T0000Z.200402T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Vermillion River Near Davis.
* from Tuesday evening until further notice.
* At 10AM Thursday the stage was 8.50 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Tuesday March 31 and crest 
  near 12.5 feet by Thursday April 02.
* At stages near 13.0 feet...Moderate flooding of agricultural land 
  begins. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4340 9710 4340 9704 4327 9696 4318 9689
          4310 9694 4310 9703

$$

SDC027-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0051.200331T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WKAS2.1.ER.200331T2000Z.200403T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Vermillion River Near Wakonda.
* from Tuesday afternoon until further notice.
* At 07AM Friday the stage was 11.00 (Estimated) feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Tuesday March 31 and continue 
  to rise to near 15.3 feet by Thursday April 02. additional rises 
  are possible thereafter.
* At stages near 15.5 feet...Water reaches the bottom of the bridge 
  on highway 19 near Lodi, and 306th Street near Hub City will flood 
  along with several other county roads. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4310 9703 4310 9694 4291 9690 4291 9701
          4295 9700 4300 9704

$$

IAC041-059-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0052.200329T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.ER.200329T0300Z.200331T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Sioux River near Milford.
* from Saturday evening until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 11.24 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday March 28 and crest 
  near 13.2 feet by Tuesday March 31.
* At stages near 14.0 feet...Significant amounts of pasture and other
  farm lands begin to flood. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9521 4334 9520 4331 9515
          4324 9517 4329 9524

$$

IAC041-282042-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0053.200329T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/SPWI4.1.ER.200329T0600Z.200330T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1142 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Sioux River at Spencer.
* from late Saturday night until further notice.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 9.64 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday March 29 and crest near
  11.4 feet by Monday March 30.
* At stages near 10.0 feet...The right bank overflows, and minor 
  flooding of the Spencer city park and some rural agricultural areas 
  begins. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9517 4314 9503 4299 9503 4302 9510
          4310 9511 4314 9523

$$

&& 
Location  Flood   Latest  Observed   Maximum  Forecast
          Stage    Stage  Time         Stage  Time   

JAMES RIVER
HURS2      11.0    14.64  Fri 10 AM     15.1  Tue 7 PM
FORS2      12.0    14.91  Fri 11 AM     15.5  Wed 7 PM
JRMS2      17.0    20.58  Fri 11 AM     21.7  Thu 7 PM
SCOS2      13.0    15.54  Fri 10 AM     17.0  Wed 7 AM
YNNS2      12.0    15.09  Fri 11 AM     17.6  Thu 1 PM

BIG SIOUX RIVER
BSES2    1644.0  1643.81  Fri 11 AM
BRCS2       8.0     8.32  Fri 11 AM
BRKS2       9.0     8.95  Fri 11 AM     11.7  Wed 1 AM
DERS2      12.0    11.04  Fri 10 AM     13.6  Mon 7 AM
SFLS2      12.0    11.72  Fri 11 AM     13.9  Tue 1 PM
SXFS2      16.0    12.61  Fri 10 AM     18.3  Tue 1 PM
HWDI4      20.5    18.97  Fri 10 AM     24.6  Wed 7 AM
AKRI4      16.0    14.80  Fri 11 AM     17.8  Wed 7 AM

VERMILLION RIVER
DVSS2      11.0     8.50  Thu 10 AM     12.5  Thu 1 PM
WKAS2      14.0   E11.00  Fri  7 AM     15.3  Thu 7 PM

LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
MIFI4      12.0    11.24  Fri 10 AM     13.2  Tue 1 AM
SPWI4      10.0     9.64  Fri 10 AM     11.4  Mon 1 PM

540 
WGUS83 KFSD 281501
FLSFSD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...

  Vermillion River Near Davis
  Vermillion River Near Wakonda

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...
  
  James River At Huron
  James River Near Forestburg
  James River At Mitchell
  James River Near Scotland
  James River Above Yankton
 
.The following river forecasts include forecast precipitation through
tonight. Any additional future rains could affect the crest 
forecasts. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Do not drive cars through flooded areas. the water 
depth and road condition may be unsafe.

Additional information is available at 
 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fsd

Stay tuned for further updates by listening to NOAA weather radio...
or your local radio and TV stations.

The next scheduled statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&

SDC005-291901-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HURS2.3.ER.200305T0930Z.200321T1515Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River At Huron.
* until further notice.
* At 09AM Saturday the stage was 14.61 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 14.7 feet by Monday March 30 
  then begin falling.
* At stages near 15.0 feet...Approximately 16000 acres of 
agricultural land around Huron will be flooded. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4463 9833 4463 9821 4449 9810 4420 9810
          4420 9822 4447 9824

$$

SDC111-291901-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FORS2.2.ER.200302T0425Z.200312T0916Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Near Forestburg.
* until further notice.
* At 09AM Saturday the stage was 14.87 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 14.9 feet by Wednesday April 
  01 then begin falling.
* At stages near 15.0 feet...Many of the county roads in the area are
impassable, and some roads are under water for as much as 1/2 mile. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4420 9822 4420 9810 4402 9802 4393 9798
          4393 9812 4409 9816

$$

SDC035-061-291901-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JRMS2.2.ER.200226T1615Z.200324T1315Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River At Mitchell.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Saturday the stage was 20.50 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 20.5 feet.
* At stages near 20.0 feet...The higher banks overflow. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4393 9812 4393 9798 4370 9789 4340 9763
          4338 9777 4351 9797

$$

SDC067-135-291901-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCOS2.2.ER.200303T1345Z.200321T0946Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Near Scotland.
* until further notice.
* At 09AM Saturday the stage was 15.37 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 15.4 feet by Wednesday April 
  01 then begin falling.
* At stages near 15.5 feet...431st Avenue is flooded where it crosses
the river in northwestern Yankton County. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4338 9777 4340 9763 4321 9755 4308 9736
          4308 9750 4317 9769

$$

SDC135-291901-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/YNNS2.2.ER.200308T0907Z.200321T0916Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Above Yankton.
* until further notice.
* At 09AM Saturday the stage was 15.08 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to slowly fall.
* At stages near 16.0 feet...SW Jim River Road near 301st Street 
floods. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4308 9750 4308 9736 4298 9731 4287 9722
          4287 9737 4298 9741

$$

SDC125-281531-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-200328T1501Z/
/DVSS2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Vermillion River Near Davis.
* At 09AM Saturday the stage was 8.70 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 8.9 feet 
  Monday March 30.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4340 9710 4340 9704 4327 9696 4318 9689
          4310 9694 4310 9703

$$

SDC027-281531-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-200328T1501Z/
/WKAS2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Vermillion River Near Wakonda.
* At 07AM Saturday the stage was estimated at 10.70 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 13.1 feet 
  Tuesday March 31.
* At stages near 14.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas begins
in non-leveed areas and some agricultural land will flood if the 
levees fail. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4310 9703 4310 9694 4291 9690 4291 9701
          4295 9700 4300 9704

$$

&& 
Location Flood    Latest Observed   Maximum Forecast  Recent Observed
         Stage    Stage  Time       Stage  Time       Crest Time

JAMES RIVER
HURS2    11.0     14.61 Sat 9 AM    14.7  Sun 1 AM    16.9  Sat Mar 21
FORS2    12.0     14.87 Sat 9 AM    14.9  Tue 1 PM    15.5  Wed Mar 18
JRMS2    17.0     20.50 Sat 9 AM                      21.3  Fri Mar 20
SCOS2    13.0     15.37 Sat 9 AM    15.4  Tue 1 PM    16.0  Fri Mar 20
YNNS2    12.0     15.08 Sat 9 AM    15.1  Sat 1 PM    16.1  Fri Mar 20

VERMILLION RIVER
DVSS2    11.0      8.70 Sat 9 AM     8.9  Mon 1 PM   
WKAS2    14.0    E10.70 Sat 7 AM    13.1  Tue 7 PM  

MG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
627 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Certainly a busy forecast for the upcoming 36 hours, thanks to the
arrival of an upper wave into the Central US later tonight and
Saturday. Plenty of concerns in the forecast, including locally
heavy rainfall, strong winds, and even potential for accumulating
snow.

Today: Broad mid-lvl warm advection has already cast a wide area of
mid-lvl cloud cover throughout the region early this morning. For
the majority of today, we'll be dealing with quiet conditions, as
low lvl warm advection slowly begins to develop later this afternoon
and evening. Temperatures under an easterly wind will climb up
near the 50 degree mark.

Tonight: As upper troughing begins to pivot towards the Central
Rockies later this afternoon, we'll begin to see broad warm
advection begin to increase within the 850:700 mb layer. This
forcing should assist in developing a linear band of light rain or
perhaps even moderate drizzle that will begin to pivot northward
into the evening hours.  A brief lull in precipitation may try to
develop towards the midnight hour, but this is expected to be short
lived. As the upper wave enters the Western Plains after 4am, 500 mb
flow will increase sharply and broad upper divergence in the left
exit region of the upper jet will move overhead.  This should spur
the development of another round of showers and even isolated
thunderstorms across Nebraska and Iowa that will pivot northward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Saturday-Saturday Night:  Latest model guidance continues to hint at
even deeper development of the upper wave as it moves into the Mid-
Missouri River valley on Saturday. Also apparent is the deep
moisture connection from both the eastern Pacific and eventually GOM
that will form into Saturday morning. PWAT values advecting
northward ahead of this upper wave will move beyond the 90th
percentile and towards the daily max values at both OAX and MPX.

Rapid intensification of the upper low is expected Saturday morning
across Nebraska with significant deepening of the 850mb low. Classic
TROWAL formation will develop during the day Saturday, with large
deformation band of precipitation wrapping around the backside of
the upper low by the afternoon. Within the deformation band, strong
frontogenesis will drive locally moderate to heavy rainfall at
times. Currently, not seeing any signs of instability within the
band, but regardless am anticipating a steady and persistent
moderate rainfall moving across the region through Saturday.

Throwing another wrench into the system will be the potential for
more significant dynamic cooling than earlier thought.  Latest data
suggests low-lvl temperatures will be cooling through the day,
however surface temperatures hovering in the upper 30s are only
likely to be lowered through stronger precipitation rates. This
scenario could come to fruition in areas of SW Minnesota towards
Sioux Falls Saturday afternoon and evening as the upper low reaches
peak intensification. Very uncertain on this however, and the area
of changeover could be very narrow. Will modify temperatures to make
snow mention more prevailing, but it's something to keep an eye
on.

If there wasn't enough to be concerned about, intensifying SPG
Saturday, along with deepening upper low will lead to strong
potential for advisory level winds.  Winds at the top of the mixed
layer may push 40-45 knots in the afternoon into the evening.

A deeper and slower system will linger longer into Saturday night
with precipitation finally moving out by daybreak Sunday. Given
this scenario, I have increased PoPs through Saturday night. The
end result of this system could be widespread 1-2 inch rainfall
totals, with some spots receiving 2-3". In the ridge areas, I
wouldn't rule out a few inches of snow even. The long duration
moderate rainfall on top of saturated ground will increase the
concerns for ponding of water and increasing river and stream
flood potential. With rivers such as the James already running at
major flood levels, water flowing into tributaries could rise
further than normal. Thus, will issue a flood watch for areal
flooding and river/stream flood potential. Will make the initial
watch a bit more narrow, and allow for expansion based on evolving
forecast data.

Sunday-Monday: Latest guidance brings mid-lvl ridging into the area
for Sunday and Monday. This should result in better potential for
drier conditions than currently indicated in the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm well above normal towards the 60s.

Tuesday-Thursday: Uncertainty in the extended portions of the
forecast leads to few changes to the ongoing forecast.  Deeper
troughing is anticipated to move into the Northern Rockies and
Pacific Northwest, and could bring the next chance for rainfall to
the region by late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will remain
above normal into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Short term model guidance continues to struggle with low clouds
this morning. That said, areas of MVFR ceiling will gradually lift
northward through the morning, likely reaching Sioux Falls in the
late morning to early afternoon and then continuing to spread
northeast.

Light rain may begin along the Missouri River this afternoon and
slowly lift north. In some cases, rain may just turn to drizzle
during the evening and early overnight hours as IFR ceilings begin
to develop in the region. Visibilities may range between 2 and 5
miles with light fog in lower ceilings and drizzle.

Showers and even a few thunderstorms will develop over Nebraska
and Iowa after midnight and begin to lift northward by Saturday
morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     SDZ040-055-056-062-067.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through late Saturday night for
     SDZ050-054-059>061-063>066-068-069.

MN...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     MNZ071-072-080-097-098.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Dux

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
444 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-039-050-
052>054-057>061-063>071-280945-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
444 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota, and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers will begin to move northward after dark tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along and south of the
Missouri River and eastwards into portions of western Iowa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Storm total rainfall on Saturday into Saturday night could reach
1 to 2 inches in locations from southwest Minnesota and far
northwest Iowa, through southeast South Dakota and extreme
northeast Nebraska. Portions of east central South Dakota could
see rain totals approach 3 inches.  Rainfall could result in
ponding of water in poor drainage areas and certainly rises in
area rivers and streams.

A few thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across areas east of a
Sioux City to Spencer line, but severe storms are not expected.

North to northwest winds will increase Saturday into Saturday
night, gusting up to 35 to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ040-055-056-062-280945-
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Brookings-Lake-Moody-Minnehaha-
444 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Minnesota, east central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers will begin to move northward Friday evening.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along and south of the
Missouri River and eastwards into portions of western Iowa
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Storm total rainfall on Saturday into Saturday night could reach 1
to 3 inches by Sunday morning. Rainfall could result in ponding
of water in poor drainage areas and certainly rises in area rivers
and streams.

Snow may mix with the rain at times Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. Snow accumulations may be possible, especially in
portions of southwest Minnesota along the Buffalo Ridge.

North to northwest winds will increase Saturday into Saturday
night, gusting up to 35 to 50 mph at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.