River Flood Warning 39, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

864 
WGUS83 KFSD 191413
FLSFSD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...Iowa...

  Big Sioux River below Dell Rapids
  Big Sioux River at Brandon

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...Iowa...

  Big Sioux River Near Brookings
  Big Sioux River At Sioux Falls I-90
  Big Sioux River above Hawarden
  Big Sioux River At Akron
  Little Sioux River near Milford
  Little Sioux River at Spencer
  James River At Huron
  James River Near Forestburg
  James River At Mitchell
  James River Near Scotland
  James River Above Yankton
 
.The following river forecasts include forecast precipitation through
tonight. Any additional future rains could affect the crest 
forecasts. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Do not drive cars through flooded areas. the water 
depth and road condition may be unsafe.

Additional information is available at 
 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fsd

Stay tuned for further updates by listening to NOAA weather radio...
or your local radio and TV stations.

The next scheduled statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&

SDC005-201812-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HURS2.3.ER.200305T0930Z.200313T0016Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River At Huron.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 15.50 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 15.4 feet 
  by 7 AM Friday.
* At stages near 16.0 feet...3rd Street, Highway 14 Business Loop 
Bypass, in Huron will begin flooding. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4463 9833 4463 9821 4449 9810 4420 9810
          4420 9822 4447 9824

$$

SDC111-201812-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FORS2.2.ER.200302T0425Z.200312T0916Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Near Forestburg.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 15.43 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 15.4 feet.
* At stages near 15.0 feet...Many of the county roads in the area are
impassable, and some roads are under water for as much as 1/2 mile. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4420 9822 4420 9810 4402 9802 4393 9798
          4393 9812 4409 9816

$$

SDC035-061-201812-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JRMS2.2.ER.200226T1615Z.200313T1345Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River At Mitchell.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 21.17 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 21.2 feet.
* At stages near 21.5 feet...Shannard Road is flooded. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4393 9812 4393 9798 4370 9789 4340 9763
          4338 9777 4351 9797

$$

SDC067-135-201812-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCOS2.3.ER.200303T1345Z.200315T2300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Near Scotland.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 15.95 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 16.1 feet by Saturday March 21
  then begin falling.
* At stages near 16.0 feet...Approximately 22850 acres of farm land 
are flooded between Mitchell and Yankton. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4338 9777 4340 9763 4321 9755 4308 9736
          4308 9750 4317 9769

$$

SDC135-201812-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/YNNS2.3.ER.200308T0907Z.200324T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Above Yankton.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 15.81 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 16.2 feet by Monday March 23 
  then begin falling.
* At stages near 16.0 feet...SW Jim River Road near 301st Street 
floods. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4308 9750 4308 9736 4298 9731 4287 9722
          4287 9737 4298 9741

$$

SDC011-101-201812-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200322T0600Z/
/BRKS2.2.ER.200308T0836Z.200313T0215Z.200321T0600Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River Near Brookings.
* until late Saturday night.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 9.30 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday March 21.
* At stages near 9.0 feet...Significant amounts of pasture and farm 
lands begin flooding on the left bank of the river. The road south of
the Brookings water treatment plant is flooded, as is 217th Street 
between 468th and 469th Avenues. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4417 9678 4420 9675 4414 9659 4410 9658
          4410 9666 4411 9666

$$

SDC099-101-191443-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200322T0000Z/
/DERS2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200315T0445Z.200319T0215Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Sioux River below Dell Rapids.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 11.87 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Recent activity...The river fell below flood stage on Wednesday 
  March 18.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 11.7 feet by 7 AM 
  Friday.
* At stages near 12.0 feet...Agricultural lands along the lower banks
of the river begin to flood. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9674 4381 9672 4369 9671 4369 9676
          4373 9678 4379 9676

$$

SDC099-201812-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200324T0600Z/
/SFLS2.1.ER.200305T1149Z.200315T1030Z.200323T0600Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River At Sioux Falls I-90.
* until late Monday night.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 12.47 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Monday March 23.
* At stages near 12.0 feet...Some agricultural land between 60th 
Street North and Interstate 90 begins to flood. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4369 9676 4369 9671 4362 9672 4358 9672
          4356 9672 4357 9674 4359 9673 4360 9675
          4363 9676

$$

IAC119-SDC099-191443-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-200319T1413Z/
/BBSS2.1.ER.200309T0622Z.200315T1045Z.200319T1107Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Sioux River at Brandon.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 1303.97 feet.
* Flood stage is 1304.00 feet.
* Recent activity...The river fell below flood stage on Thursday 
  March 19.
* At stages near 1304 feet...Significant flooding of crop and pasture
land begins. Access to the north end of the Big Sioux Recreation Area
on the west side of Brandon is limited. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4359 9665 4362 9664 4360 9657 4345 9656
          4338 9646 4339 9658 4343 9662 4358 9662

$$

IAC149-167-SDC127-201812-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0036.200320T2136Z-200323T0800Z/
/HWDI4.1.ER.200320T2136Z.200321T1200Z.200322T0800Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River above Hawarden.
* from Friday afternoon to late Sunday night.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 18.93 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.50 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday March 20 and crest near
  21.2 feet by Saturday March 21. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by Sunday March 22.
* At stages near 20.5 feet...Agricultural flooding begins on the 
South Dakota side of the river. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4308 9654 4308 9641 4302 9646 4291 9649
          4291 9658

$$

IAC149-SDC127-201812-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0037.200321T1400Z-200324T0900Z/
/AKRI4.1.ER.200321T1400Z.200322T0600Z.200323T0900Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River At Akron.
* from Saturday morning to late Monday night.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 14.91 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday March 21 and crest 
  near 16.5 feet by Sunday March 22. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by Monday March 23.
* At stages near 17.0 feet...About 6500 acres of farm land are 
flooded. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4291 9658 4291 9649 4281 9654 4277 9659
          4278 9665

$$

IAC041-059-201812-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0038.200320T0224Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIFI4.1.ER.200320T0224Z.200321T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Sioux River near Milford.
* from this evening until further notice.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 10.67 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday March 19 and crest 
  near 13.8 feet by Saturday March 21.
* At stages near 14.0 feet...Significant amounts of pasture and other
farm lands begin to flood. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9521 4334 9520 4331 9515
          4324 9517 4329 9524

$$

IAC041-201812-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0039.200320T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/SPWI4.1.ER.200320T1500Z.200321T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Sioux River at Spencer.
* from Friday morning until further notice.
* At 08AM Thursday the stage was 8.37 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.00 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday March 20 and crest near
  10.9 feet by Saturday March 21.
* At stages near 10.0 feet...The right bank overflows, and minor 
flooding of the Spencer city park and some rural agricultural areas 
begins. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9517 4314 9503 4299 9503 4302 9510
          4310 9511 4314 9523

$$

&& 
Location Flood    Latest Observed     Maximum Forecast  Recent Observed
         Stage    Stage  Time         Stage  Time       Crest Time

JAMES RIVER
HURS2      11.0     15.50 Thu 8 AM                        15.6  Thu Mar 12
FORS2      12.0     15.43 Thu 9 AM                        15.6  Thu Mar 12
JRMS2      17.0     21.17 Thu 9 AM                        21.5  Fri Mar 13
SCOS2      13.0     15.95 Thu 8 AM    16.1  Sat 7 PM    
YNNS2      12.0     15.81 Thu 9 AM    16.2  Mon 7 PM    

BIG SIOUX RIVER
BRKS2       9.0      9.30 Thu 9 AM                        11.0  Thu Mar 12
DERS2      12.0     11.87 Thu 8 AM                        13.3  Sat Mar 14
SFLS2      12.0     12.47 Thu 8 AM                        13.8  Sun Mar 15
BBSS2    1304.0   1303.97 Thu 8 AM                      1305.2  Sun Mar 15
HWDI4      20.5     18.93 Thu 8 AM    21.2  Sat 7 AM   
AKRI4      16.0     14.91 Thu 8 AM    16.5  Sun 1 AM   

LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
MIFI4      12.0     10.67 Thu 8 AM    13.8  Sat 1 PM   
SPWI4      10.0      8.37 Thu 8 AM    10.9  Sat 7 AM   

MG

814 
WGUS83 KFSD 201434
FLSFSD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...Iowa...

  Big Sioux River Near Brookings
  Big Sioux River above Hawarden
  Big Sioux River At Akron
  Little Sioux River near Milford
  Little Sioux River at Spencer

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in South 
Dakota...
  James River At Huron
  James River Near Forestburg
  James River At Mitchell
  James River Near Scotland
  James River Above Yankton
  Big Sioux River At Sioux Falls I-90
 
.The following river forecasts include forecast precipitation through
tonight. Any additional future rains could affect the crest 
forecasts. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Do not drive cars through flooded areas. the water 
depth and road condition may be unsafe.

Additional information is available at 
 
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fsd

Stay tuned for further updates by listening to NOAA weather radio...
or your local radio and TV stations.

The next scheduled statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&

SDC005-211833-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HURS2.3.ER.200305T0930Z.200320T1415Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River At Huron.
* until further notice.
* At 09AM Friday the stage was 15.78 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 15.6 feet 
  by 7 AM Saturday.
* At stages near 16.0 feet...3rd Street, Highway 14 Business Loop 
Bypass, in Huron will begin flooding. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4463 9833 4463 9821 4449 9810 4420 9810
          4420 9822 4447 9824

$$

SDC111-211833-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FORS2.2.ER.200302T0425Z.200312T0916Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Near Forestburg.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Friday the stage was 15.32 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 15.4 feet by Sunday March 22 
  then begin falling.
* At stages near 15.0 feet...Many of the county roads in the area are
impassable, and some roads are under water for as much as 1/2 mile. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4420 9822 4420 9810 4402 9802 4393 9798
          4393 9812 4409 9816

$$

SDC035-061-211833-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JRMS2.2.ER.200226T1615Z.200313T1345Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River At Mitchell.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Friday the stage was 21.22 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 21.1 feet 
  by 7 AM Saturday.
* At stages near 21.5 feet...Shannard Road is flooded. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4393 9812 4393 9798 4370 9789 4340 9763
          4338 9777 4351 9797

$$

SDC067-135-211833-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SCOS2.3.ER.200303T1345Z.200315T2300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Near Scotland.
* until further notice.
* At 08AM Friday the stage was 15.99 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 16.0 feet by Friday March 20 
  then begin falling.
* At stages near 16.0 feet...Approximately 22850 acres of farm land 
are flooded between Mitchell and Yankton. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4338 9777 4340 9763 4321 9755 4308 9736
          4308 9750 4317 9769

$$

SDC135-211833-
/O.CON.KFSD.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/YNNS2.3.ER.200308T0907Z.200322T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The James River Above Yankton.
* until further notice.
* At 09AM Friday the stage was 15.99 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest near 16.1 feet by Sunday March 22 
  then begin falling.
* At stages near 16.0 feet...SW Jim River Road near 301st Street 
floods. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4308 9750 4308 9736 4298 9731 4287 9722
          4287 9737 4298 9741

$$

SDC011-101-201503-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200322T0600Z/
/BRKS2.2.ER.200308T0836Z.200313T0215Z.200320T0915Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Sioux River Near Brookings.
* At 08AM Friday the stage was 8.64 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.00 feet.
* Recent activity...The river fell below flood stage at Friday March 
  20.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 8.2 feet by 7 AM 
  Saturday.
* At stages near 9.0 feet...Significant amounts of pasture and farm 
lands begin flooding on the left bank of the river. The road south of
the Brookings water treatment plant is flooded, as is 217th Street 
between 468th and 469th Avenues. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4417 9678 4420 9675 4414 9659 4410 9658
          4410 9666 4411 9666

$$

SDC099-211833-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200323T1200Z/
/SFLS2.1.ER.200305T1149Z.200315T1030Z.200322T1200Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Sioux River At Sioux Falls I-90.
* until Monday morning.
* At 07AM Friday the stage was 12.32 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Sunday March 22.
* At stages near 12.0 feet...Some agricultural land between 60th 
Street North and Interstate 90 begins to flood. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4369 9676 4369 9671 4362 9672 4358 9672
          4356 9672 4357 9674 4359 9673 4360 9675
          4363 9676

$$

IAC149-167-SDC127-201503-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200323T0800Z/
/HWDI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Sioux River above Hawarden.
* At 09AM Friday the stage was 18.92 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.50 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 19.2 feet 
  Saturday March 21.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4308 9654 4308 9641 4302 9646 4291 9649
          4291 9658

$$

IAC149-SDC127-201503-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200324T0900Z/
/AKRI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Sioux River At Akron.
* At 09AM Friday the stage was 14.79 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 15.0 feet 
  Saturday March 21.
* At stages near 15.0 feet...Some rural roads on the South Dakota 
side of the river begin to flood. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4291 9658 4291 9649 4281 9654 4277 9659
          4278 9665

$$

IAC041-059-201503-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200320T1433Z/
/MIFI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Little Sioux River near Milford.
* At 08AM Friday the stage was 11.21 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 11.8 feet 
  Saturday March 21.
* At stages near 12.0 feet...Minor flooding of low lying agricultural
lands begins. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4341 9527 4341 9521 4334 9520 4331 9515
          4324 9517 4329 9524

$$

IAC041-201503-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-200320T1433Z/
/SPWI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Little Sioux River at Spencer.
* At 08AM Friday the stage was 9.52 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.00 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 9.8 feet 
  Saturday March 21.
* At stages near 10.0 feet...The right bank overflows, and minor 
flooding of the Spencer city park and some rural agricultural areas 
begins. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9517 4314 9503 4299 9503 4302 9510
          4310 9511 4314 9523

$$

&& 
Location Flood    Latest Observed     Maximum Forecast  Recent Observed
         Stage    Stage  Time         Stage  Time       Crest Time

JAMES RIVER
HURS2    11.0     15.78 Fri 9 AM                        15.8  Fri Mar 20
FORS2    12.0     15.32 Fri 8 AM      15.4  Sun 7 PM    
JRMS2    17.0     21.22 Fri 9 AM                        21.5  Fri Mar 13
SCOS2    13.0     15.99 Fri 8 AM      16.0  Fri 1 PM    16.2  Sun Mar 15
YNNS2    12.0     15.99 Fri 9 AM      16.1  Sun 7 AM    

BIG SIOUX RIVER
BRKS2     9.0      8.64 Fri 9 AM                        11.0  Thu Mar 12
SFLS2    12.0     12.32 Fri 7 AM                        13.8  Sun Mar 15
HWDI4    20.5     18.92 Fri 9 AM      19.2  Sat 1 AM    20.9  Tue Mar 10
AKRI4    16.0     14.79 Fri 9 AM      15.0  Sat 7 AM    16.3  Wed Mar 11

LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
MIFI4    12.0     11.21 Fri 8 AM      11.8  Sat 7 PM    15.1  Tue Mar 10
SPWI4    10.0      9.52 Fri 8 AM       9.8  Sat 7 AM    11.7  Tue Mar 10

MG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
609 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Initial wave and mid level warm advection tied to the well
advertised west coast trough is currently passing through the
region. This has brought showers to portions of NW IA and drizzle
elsewhere. As this forcing fades through the morning, should see
precipitation also fade, although stratus and perhaps patchy fog
will likely linger. This stratus will keep temperatures somewhat in
check although still above average given the mild start to the day.
Generally expect mid 40s to mid 50s.

By this evening, the next lead mid level wave and warm advection and
should spark another round of drizzle or light rain across the
region. The stronger forcing arrives by the second half of the
overnight period and should result in blossoming radar returns and
more bonafide precipitation. Could even see some elevated
instability sneak into areas south of I-90 toward the daybreak hours
and result in a few thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Widespread precipitation should be well underway by the daytime
hours Thursday with favorable jet dynamics and strong DivQ providing
broad lift across the region. Some enhancement is possible closer to
the 700 mb front from south central SD to east central SD through
the morning before this collapse southeastward through the day.
Precipitation should will come to and end by daybreak Friday.

Precipitation Type: Thermal profiles continue to support the bulk of
the precipitation starting off as rain Thursday morning, save except
for areas toward Huron where a wintry mix may be underway by
daybreak. A non-diurnal temperature trend will commence through the
day with colder air crashing in from the northwest and switching
rain to a brief period of wintry mix and then all snow through
the late morning and afternoon. The transition looks to make it to
NW IA by the early to mid evening hours.

Have also included mention of thunder across portions of NW IA with
MUCAPE values ranging from 400 to 800 J/kg. SPC has also included a
few of our far southeast counties in a Marginal risk for severe
weather.

Winds: A tight SPG for the second half of Thursday into Friday will
serve to provide sustained north to northwesterly winds in the 20 to
30 mph range with momentum transfer values off of various soundings
suggesting gusts near/above 35-45 mph at times. In fact, 850 mb
winds are between the 90-97th percentile of climatology. These winds
will no doubt lead to some blowing snow and reduced visibility,
although given the wet nature of the expected snowfall, the peak of
this will likely be confined to when snow is falling.

Amounts: The million dollar question... Majority of guidance is in
agreement of liquid amounts of around an inch or more for far
southeast SD, NW IA and portions of SW MN with lower amounts to the
northwest. These liquid values will likely have influence on area
streams and rivers with the ratio of rain to snow impacting the
timetable for this. In terms of snow, would expect a general 2 to 5
inches for the majority of locations with perhaps lower amounts
across our far northwest and southeast corners. With that said,
guidance depicts a bit of EPV* above the previously mentioned
frontogenesis at times which could drive a band of higher totals.
Latest 00z guidance hints that one potential candidate for an
area this may happen to be across NE Nebraska into NW IA. HREF
guidance even flags this area for 1"+ per hour snow rates
Thursday evening. Looking through various model and ensemble plume
diagrams through severely degrades any confidence in determining
any potential location for mesoscale enhancement and thus will
have to continue to monitor for now.

Headlines: Minor consideration was given to a Winter Storm Watch for
a corridor from NE Neb into NW IA given some modest indication in
the models for higher amounts. As mentioned above though, confidence
was ultimately far too low to do this. Also gave consideration to a
broad Winter Weather Advisory for a good portion of the forecast
area given the combination of snow and wind but given the onset of
wintry weather is still more than 24 hours out, will allow day shift
to further evaluate things. The potential for a flash freeze of any
wet roads as colder air arrives will also need to be considered.

Surface high pressure works into the region by Friday morning and
will be accompanied by well below normal temperatures. High
temperatures Friday will be stuck in the 20s. To add one extra
reminder that winter isn't done yet, wind chills below zero are also
expected. Saturday morning lows are likely to be in the single
digits or lower teens in most areas.

Fairly benign weather is expected through the weekend and into early
next week with the next precipitation chance arriving Tuesday.
Temperatures will also moderate back to near or above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings in place across the region (except
near KHON) with areas of drizzle and fog as well. Expect the
drizzle to end and ceilings to come up a bit by late morning or afternoon
before crashing back toward the IFR and lower range by this
evening and overnight. Drizzle and eventually rain will also work
back into the region tonight with the potential for a couple
embedded flashes of lightning south of I-90 by very late in the
TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...Kalin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
428 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ038>040-050-052>066-068-069-
190930-
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-
Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-
Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
428 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota, central
South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota
and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Areas of drizzle and fog this morning and again tonight may lead to
locally reduced visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A large weather system will bring rain transitioning to snow to the
area Thursday into Thursday night. Accumulating snow, along with
strong winds, will likely lead to areas of blowing snow and winter
travel conditions. Additionally, falling temperatures through the day
Thursday may lead to a refreeze of any wet pavement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ067-070-071-190930-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Lincoln-Union-
428 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Areas of drizzle and fog this morning and again tonight may lead to
locally reduced visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A large weather system will bring rain and potentially a few
thunderstorms to the area Thursday before transitioning to snow
Thursday afternoon and evening. Accumulating snow, along with strong
winds, will likely lead to areas of blowing snow and winter travel
conditions. Additionally, falling temperatures Thursday evening may
lead to a refreeze of any wet pavement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.