Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

849 
WWUS55 KFGZ 082027
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
127 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

AZC005-082100-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-200908T2100Z/
Coconino-
127 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM MST
FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

At 127 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Starlight
Pines, or 23 miles northeast of Payson, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Clints Well, Starlight Pines, Knoll Lake Campground, Clints Well
Campground, Chevelon Canyon Dam, Blue Ridge Campground, Rock Crossing
Campground, Chevelon Crossing Campground and Chevelon Canyon Lake
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 11124 3445 11125 3444 11126 3444 11128
      3446 11149 3454 11149 3458 11129 3464 11124
      3464 11075 3439 11075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 268DEG 41KT 3455 11114 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

231 
WWUS55 KFGZ 082044
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
144 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

AZC005-082053-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-200908T2100Z/
Coconino-
144 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COCONINO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, wind gusts from 
45 to 55 mph will continue to be possible through 2 pm.

LAT...LON 3444 11124 3445 11125 3444 11126 3444 11128
      3446 11149 3454 11149 3458 11129 3464 11124
      3464 11075 3439 11075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 272DEG 50KT 3454 11086 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1032 AM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...An unseasonably strong weather system will deliver
windy, cooler and unsettled weather to northern Arizona from
Tuesday into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to warm Friday
and throughout the coming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Minor changes to the forecast today as a strong cold
front continues to move across the area and bring the potential
for convection along the front through this evening. Cold
temperatures behind the front will persist for a few days, with
some higher elevation locations possibly experiencing their first
front Wednesday or Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /306 AM MST/...The storm that will be impacting
northern Arizona weather over the next few days can be seen on
infrared satellite imagery diving southward across Utah this
morning. The same progression will continue through the day
driving a cold front from north to south across Arizona. Ahead of
the front expect winds of generally 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35
mph. However, right at cold front passage wind gusts into the 40
mph range will be possible for an hour or two. Winds will start
out from the west to southwest, shifting to northwest to north
across far northern Arizona by mid morning then spread across the
area finally making it to the White Mountains region late in the
day. Moisture, currently pooled over central Arizona, will be
drawn northward ahead of the front. Much of the area will see a
slight chance of a sprinkle or shower with frontal passage. But
further east, essentially along and south of a line extending
from Four Corners to Payson showers and thunders will be likely.
A few of the thunderstorms could become severe with wind gust in
excess of 60 mph and quarter size hail possible. Much cooler with
high temperatures ranging from 15 to 25 degrees cooler today
compared to Monday.

On Wednesday and Thursday...The storm system and parent low will
wobble over the southwest United States. There will be a continued
threat of showers from the Four Corners southward the the White
Mountains region. A stray afternoon thunderstorm will also be
possible. In addition, with the unseasonably cold air mass moving
in, freezing temperatures will be a possibility each morning at
elevations above 6500 feet especially in locations sheltered from
any nighttime winds. If you have plants you would like to protect
it would probably be best to cover them or bring them inside if
possible.

From Friday onward...The storm exits the area. High pressure will
take it's place with temperatures warming to near normal levels by
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION....For the 18Z package... Smoke aloft will continue to
clear out through early afternoon behind a cold front. The gusty
winds will first shift to the northwest behind a passing cold front
and finally to the northeast later this afternoon/early this
evening. The north to northeasterly breezy winds then will persist
through Tuesday evening. In addition, there are chances for showers
and thunderstorms throughout Tuesday. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop mainly southeast of a KSEZ to KRQE line after 19Z. MVFR
conditions are possible in the stronger thunderstorms. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong cold front will bring much cooler
temperatures and gusty winds Tuesday with near critical fire weather
conditions at times. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along
the front with the best chances in eastern Arizona. Below normal
temperatures are anticipated Wednesday, with more shower and
thunderstorm chances in eastern Arizona and north along the Utah
state line.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions return with daytime
temperatures gradually climbing back to near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Suk/McCollum
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...ET

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1250 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

AZZ012-016-082030-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
1250 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY BETWEEN HAPPY JACK AND CLINTS WELL
IN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 1249 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Clints Well, or 25 miles east of Camp Verde,
moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clints Well, Starlight Pines, Clints Well Campground, Chevelon Canyon
Dam, Blue Ridge Campground, Rock Crossing Campground, Chevelon Butte
and Chevelon Canyon Lake Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 11150 3469 11152 3481 11085 3441 11080
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 262DEG 32KT 3462 11141