Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dangerously hot temperatures will continue across
portions of Arizona, and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect
for much of the state below 4500 feet through Monday. Otherwise,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon into early next week, with activity primarily occurring
over higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Abnormally hot conditions, along with a round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms, have occurred across
portions of northern Arizona today. The majority of the
thunderstorm activity has formed over higher terrain from the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains southward. We may see activity
develop along outflow boundaries within some of our valley
locations as the afternoon continues. Model forecasts generally
show storm activity decreasing after sunset. In addition to the
storms, hot temperatures have been observed across the area. Prior
to convective initiation, Flagstaff hit 90 degrees for the first
time since July of 2018.

Strong high pressure will continue to bring abnormally hot
temperatures to the area through at least Monday, and extreme
heat warnings remain in effect for all elevations below 4500 feet.
This includes the Grand Canyon, Marble Canyon and Glen Canyon.
Additional extreme heat warnings are in effect for elevations
below 4500 feet in Yavapai and Gila Counties. All extreme heat
warnings are scheduled to last through Monday afternoon. In
addition to the heat, enough moisture will remain in place for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
into early next week. The best chances for storms will be over
higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
southward.

A trough is forecast to brush the area on Monday and Tuesday
bringing a round of breezy southwest winds. In addition, this
trough may scour out some of the moisture, which could suppress
and shift storm activity eastward from Tuesday through the
remainder of the work week. Otherwise, expect near normal high
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR conditions over the higher terrain will diminish after
02Z. Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds overnight
through Sunday morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing again after 18Z on Sunday. Expect gusty winds around
storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Strong high pressure will continue to bring
abnormally hot conditions to the area. In addition, enough
moisture remains for isolated to scattered storms each afternoon,
primarily over high terrain. Lightning and outflow winds are the
main hazards. Breezy southwest winds are possible Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...A return to near normal temperatures,
along with breezy southwest winds is forecast for Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over higher terrain each
afternoon, but this activity may shift to eastern zones.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8
PM MST Monday FOR AZZ005-006-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
106 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2020

AZZ018-112030-
Northern Gila County-
106 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 104 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hunter Creek, or 14 miles west of Forest Lakes. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tonto Village, Kohls Ranch, Hunter Creek, Bear Flat, Upper Tonto
Creek Campground, Christopher Creek Campground and Ponderosa
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 11095 3422 11108 3429 11117 3436 11108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 128DEG 1KT 3426 11105

TPS