Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1246 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...An Excessive Heat Warning continues for the lower
elevations of the Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon through this
evening. High temperatures start a decreasing trend this weekend
and should be close to seasonal normal by Tuesday. Scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected along and south
of the Mogollon Rim through the weekend with isolated storms
elsewhere. A more typical monsoon pattern is forecast next week
with daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hot temperatures continue today as upper level high
pressure remains centered over Arizona. The hottest temperatures
in our forecast area will be across the mostly sunny far north
nearest the UT border. Excessive Heat Warnings continue for the
lower Grand Canyon and Page areas through this evening.
Temperatures look to gradually lower over the weekend, though will
still remain much above normal.

We are anticipating a similar day as compared to yesterday with
scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing over the Mogollon Rim
and Coconino Plateau and drifting southwest into Yavapai county
this evening. Isolated storms are possible elsewhere. The caveat
is northward moving cloud cover from a remnant circulation over
southern Arizona. This may impede on afternoon instability. If the
clouds give way, moderate instability is forecast to develop with
daytime heating south of the rim over Yavapai county and a few
strong to severe storms may develop.

A similar pattern is forecast through the weekend. As moisture
spreads northward across Arizona, storm chances will
correspondingly spread north covering all of Arizona. We
anticipate a more typical monsoon pattern to be in place next
week featuring scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day and
more typical August temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will diminish after 03Z. Storms will be most numerous
along and south of a KCMR-KFLG-KSOW line. Wind gusts to around 40 kt
and localized MVFR conditions near stronger storms. Otherwise, winds
generally light less than 15 kts. Another similar round of storms on
Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Look for scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday with most activity extending
from the Coconino plateau along the Mogollon Rim to the White
Mountains, moving west to southwest into the evening. A bit cooler
temperatures are in store from Saturday into Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms will persist with the potential for a decent coverage
of wetting rain by Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime temperatures will
return to near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until
8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005-006.

&&

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
246 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

AZZ017-018-212215-
Northern Gila County-White Mountains-
246 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEAR WHITERIVER IN GILA...APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MST...

At 243 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whiteriver, or 31 miles south of Show Low, moving southwest at 10
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Turkey Creek, Seven Mile, Fort Apache, Whiteriver and East Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 10989 3384 10972 3367 10982 3377 11003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 027DEG 8KT 3382 10986

MCT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

AZZ008-015-037-038-212315-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Yavapai County
Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
340 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEDONA AND OAK CREEK YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MST...

At 339 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sedona, moving southwest at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sedona, Bridgeport, Village At Oak Creek, Garland's Oak Creek Lodge,
Page Springs, Cornville, Slide Rock State Park, Cottonwood, Red Rock
State Park, Dead Horse Ranch State Park, Manzanita Campground and
Tuzigoot National Monument.

LAT...LON 3503 11184 3481 11156 3462 11190 3482 11210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 048DEG 21KT 3485 11181

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
353 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

AZZ008-037-212345-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
353 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SELIGMAN IN YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MST...

At 352 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Seligman, or 50 miles northeast of Wikieup. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Yavapai County.

LAT...LON 3539 11306 3521 11292 3509 11317 3532 11333
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 061DEG 4KT 3528 11309

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
406 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

AZZ016-018-212330-
Northern Gila County-Eastern Mogollon Rim-
406 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY NEAR PINE AND
COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MST...

At 405 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pine, or 11 miles northwest of Payson, moving west at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Geronimo Estates, Freedom Acres, Flowing Springs, Pine, Strawberry,
Geronimo Boy Scout Camp, Water Wheel Burn At Houston Mesa Rd-
S, Tonto Natural Bridge State Park and Beaver Valley.

LAT...LON 3423 11155 3439 11158 3441 11156 3442 11153
      3443 11148 3446 11140 3433 11127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 080DEG 10KT 3439 11142

ET

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>