Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

695 
WWUS55 KFGZ 022346
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
446 PM MST Sun Aug 2 2020

AZC001-030015-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-200803T0015Z/
Apache-
446 PM MST Sun Aug 2 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST
FOR APACHE COUNTY...

At 445 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles west of
Greer, or 25 miles southwest of Springerville, moving southeast at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
Apache County near Hawley Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 10984 3408 10980 3404 10956 3379 10962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 298DEG 6KT 3398 10970 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

KD

116 
WWUS55 KFGZ 030015
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
515 PM MST Sun Aug 2 2020

AZC001-030025-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-200803T0015Z/
Apache-
515 PM MST Sun Aug 2 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR APACHE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire. However, heavy 
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3391 10984 3408 10980 3404 10956 3379 10962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 298DEG 6KT 3396 10965 

$$

KD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
212 PM MST Sun Aug 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will gradually cool over the next
couple days. After this evening, shower and thunderstorm chances
will mainly be limited to the White Mountains through Tuesday.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As expected, we have seen less storm activity than
yesterday across the area. There has been persistent showers and
storms in southeast Apache County where we have had reports of
heavy rainfall and small hail. We still do expect isolated
development as far west as Flagstaff and Prescott, but at this
point it looks like storms will be few and far between. Otherwise,
it has been another day of hot temperatures with most locations
running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The loss of daytime heating
should bring a relatively quick end to convection later this
evening. Some haze and smoke from area wildfires is likely to
linger across the region into the overnight hours. Little
reduction to visibility to anticipated.

Drier westerly flow will develop on Monday and Tuesday, limiting
the thunderstorm threat further. With high pressure weakening and
shifting south, we will also see gradual relief from the hot
temperatures. An uptick in monsoon activity is still on the table
for Wednesday and Thursday, but this doesn't look be a sustained
influx of monsoon moisture. Latest model guidance indicates
another push of drier westerly flow may be on the way next
weekend. The 2020 Monsoon season has once again been plagued by
several troughs and associated westerly flow limiting moisture
across northern Arizona. At this time, there is little indication
this general pattern will change through mid-August.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Mainly VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly east of a KPRC-KFLG line will diminish after
sunset. Periods of MVFR-IFR conditions possible in stronger storms.
Southwest winds 10-20 kts on Monday, with the thunderstorm threat
limited to areas from KSOW southeast. Aviation discussion not
updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot weather will continue early this week. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly across the White
Mountains. Winds will generally be light except near storms.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures will drop back to near
normal. An uptick in monsoon activity is expected on Wednesday and
Thursday as moisture spreads north and west. Thunderstorm chances
may decrease again on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8
PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005- 018-037-038.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ006.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
202 PM MST Sun Aug 2 2020

AZZ017-022130-
White Mountains-
202 PM MST Sun Aug 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR APACHE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MST...

At 201 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Three Forks, or 15 miles south of Springerville, moving south at 15
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Three Forks, Cutthroat Campground, Crescent Lake, Rainbow Campground,
Grayling Campground, Big Lake, Diamond Rock Campground, Buffalo
Crossing Campground, Deer Creek Campground, Apache Trout Campground,
Brookchar Campground, Raccoon Campground, Horse Springs Campground
and Aspen Campground - East Fork Black River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 10935 3374 10937 3373 10936 3371 10940
      3372 10940 3371 10941 3371 10944 3370 10945
      3370 10951 3408 10943 3407 10928 3378 10920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 001DEG 13KT 3391 10935

DB