Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
231 PM MST Sat May 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
across northern Arizona into Monday evening. Drier conditions are
expected again by Tuesday through the work week.

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.DISCUSSION...A few light rain or virga showers have developed
over northern Arizona this afternoon and are moving to the
southeast. This activity will end this evening.

Moisture will continue to move northward from Mexico on Sunday
leading to more shower and thunderstorm activity. With deeper
moisture in place, any storms that do for could produce light to
moderate rainfall amounts. Some storms could also produce strong
gusty winds as well. High temperatures will be close to average
on Sunday.

A large area of low pressure off the West Coast will bring a much
drier southwest flow over Arizona on Monday. Enough moisture will
still remain over Apache County on Monday for a few storms there.

From Tuesday onward...A dry southwest flow will continue. Look
for near normal temperatures with gusty southwest winds each
afternoon, strongest on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions to dominate
throughout the TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop, mainly over higher terrain through sunset this
evening. Some of the stronger storms may produce MVFR conditions and
erratic wind gusts to 45kts. Outside of storms, expect southwest
winds from 10-15 kts. After sunset winds will decrease to light and
variable overnight. Gusty winds and convection will return around
18z Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

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.FIRE WEATHER....For Sunday, expect warm temperatures with afternoon
humidity in 20 to 30 percent. This will allow for gusty winds and
scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening
hours, mainly over the higher terrain. These storms are likely to
be high based with little rainfall making it to the surface. The
primary hazards from this weekend's storms will be strong outflow
winds and new fire starts from dry lightning. A downturn in storm
activity is expected on Monday, primarily east of Flagstaff.

Monday through Wednesday... Tuesday onward is expected to be dry
with near average temperatures.

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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

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PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...Suk
FIRE WEATHER...Suk

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff