Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 AM MST Sat Jun 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...This weekend will feature gusty southwest winds and
critical fire weather conditions across portions of northern
Arizona. Gusty winds will continue on Monday, before a warming
trend and weaker winds develop by the middle of next week.
Freezing morning temperatures are probable in the high country
from Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The trough responsible for the gusty winds and
showers overnight is pushing through the Four Corners region this
morning. Storm activity has quickly pushed into Utah and Colorado,
with mostly sunny skies across much of the area. Strong southwest
winds are being observed across Navajo and Apache counties where a
Wind Advisory is in effect through 5 PM MST this afternoon. The
fastest speeds have been observed in Springerville where gusts up
to 70 mph have been reported. Expect a gradual weakening of wind
speeds through the afternoon behind the trough. The gusty winds
combined with lowering relative humidity values this afternoon
will result in critical fire weather conditions across this area.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8 PM MST tonight.

Another round of gusty winds is on tap for Sunday as a low sweeps
inland through the Intermountain West. We will see a drier airmass
in place compared to today, with more widespread critical fire
weather conditions likely.

Minor updates were made this morning to remove all precipitation
chances for the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /505 AM MST/...Expect lingering showers and a
stray thunderstorm this morning over Apache county. The area of
low pressure that is responsible for this activity will eject
through the Four Corners. Drier, cooler and more stable air
trails the low, which will end all activity by this afternoon.
The higher winds and fire danger will shift east with the low,
with cooler air and lighter winds to the west. Wind and FWX
products are in effect for eastern and northeastern Arizona.

Low pressure remains over the Great Basin through at least Monday.
Although the area will stay dry, expect windy conditions with
below normal temperatures into early next week. A warming trend
develops by the middle and end of next week, although it looks
like yet another wind event by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR for the next 24 hours. Til
00z Sun S-SW surface winds 15-30 kts gusts 30-45 kts. Fastest
speeds across Navajo and Apache counties. After 00z winds
decreasing to 10-20kts through 15z Sun then SW 15-30kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Shower and thunderstorm activity will persist
through this morning, with the highest chances over northeast
Arizona. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast this
afternoon and again Sunday across much of northern Arizona.

Monday through Wednesday...A cooler and much drier air mass will
affect the region. Expect breezy west to northwest winds on Monday,
with weaker winds on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM
MST this evening FOR AZZ109>114-116- 117-139-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR AZZ104>107-109>115-139-140.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ010-011-013-
014-017-039-040.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS/Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
910 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

AZZ010-061545-
Chinle Valley-
910 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL
945 AM MDT...

At 910 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Monument Valley Visitors Center, or 18 miles south
of Mexican Hat, moving north at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mexican Water, Monument Valley Visitors Center and Dennehotso.

LAT...LON 3674 10966 3644 10986 3700 11033 3699 10953
TIME...MOT...LOC 1510Z 187DEG 50KT 3686 10994

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