Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

461 
WGUS75 KFGZ 271759
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1059 AM MST Mon Jul 27 2020

AZC005-272000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200727T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
1059 AM MST Mon Jul 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MANGUM FIRE SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

At 1055 AM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain over eastern portions of the Mangum burn scar.

HAZARD...Thunderstorms producing flash flooding remain in and
         around the Mangum Fire scar.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Mangum Fire scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Coconino County

LAT...LON 3669 11235 3671 11229 3669 11229 3662 11230
      3660 11232 3659 11235 3662 11236

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

McCollum

486 
WGUS75 KFGZ 271911
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1211 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2020

AZC005-272000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200727T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
1211 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MANGUM FIRE SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

At 1209 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms had moved to 
the east of the Mangum burn scar.

HAZARD...Flash flooding

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Mangum Fire scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Coconino County

LAT...LON 3669 11235 3671 11229 3669 11229 3662 11230
      3660 11232 3659 11235 3662 11236

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

McCollum

123 
WGUS75 KFGZ 271951
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1251 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2020

AZC005-272001-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200727T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coconino AZ-
1251 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MANGUM FIRE SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM 
MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed any road closures. Visit 
weather.gov/flagstaff for more information on northern Arizona 
weather conditions.

LAT...LON 3669 11235 3671 11229 3669 11229 3662 11230
      3660 11232 3659 11235 3662 11236

$$

McCollum

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
953 AM MST Mon Jul 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
forecast today and Tuesday, with the best chances east of I-17 and
Highway 89. High pressure will build over the desert southwest by
Wednesday and will bring much warmer temperatures and a downturn
in monsoon activity through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...A little deeper moisture (1+ inch PWAT) is nosing
northward along the AZ/NM border this morning. Short range model
solutions indicate the highest MUCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg
range will develop primarily over the White Mountains this
afternoon (where the highest PoPs and moisture are forecast).

To the west, a negatively tilted trough axis is currently
pivoting northward over southern California. The approaching
trough axis will produce 0-6km bulk shear values in the 30-35 knot
range over northwestern Coconino County later this afternoon.

Even though the highest CAPE and shear values are not lining up
over the same areas of northern Arizona, still think there is a
non-zero chance for some rotating updrafts to develop over the
Kaibab Plateau this afternoon. Would not be surprised to get
funnel cloud or land spout reports from that area this afternoon.

Otherwise, only made minor updates to the forecast. The updated
gridded and text products have been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /329 AM MST/...Thunderstorm coverage for Monday
will include isolated to scattered coverage for Coconino and
Yavapai counties with more widespread activity for Apache, Navajo,
and eastern Gila county. By Tuesday, expect coverage to be in the
White Mountain Region and along the AZ/NM border with mainly
isolated chances elsewhere. All in all, our monsoonal moisture is
coming to and end for the moment.

A high amplitude ridge will begin building in across the southwest
on Tuesday. By Friday, EPS height anomalies show a 597 ridge in
place across southwest. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued
for areas below 5000 ft from Thursday morning through Saturday
evening in Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon. If you have plans
to be outdoors, be prepared for the heat with proper clothing,
plenty of water, and save strenuous activity for the morning
before the hottest part of the day. Temperatures will be 5-10
degrees above normal with few daily high temperature records
threatened. This ridging pattern stays in place for the duration
of the the forecast period with only slight movements due to
Pacific Northwest trough development. 8-14 day climate outlooks
favor this with below normal precipitation and above normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Monsoon moisture will deliver
scattered showers and thunders mainly from KFLG eastward with
isolated activity to the west. Storms decreasing during the evening.
VFR conditions away from storms. Light winds, except wind gusts to
near 40 mph near any stronger storms. Aviation discussion not
updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms again
today, especially from Flagstaff eastward and over higher terrain.
Tuesday will see a significant decrease in activity as a warming and
drying trend begins. Storm activity Tuesday will be mainly limited
to southern Apache and Navajo counties. Expect light winds and
increasing Haines Indices.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect abnormally hot and dry conditions
through this period. Shower and thunderstorm activity is unlikely.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday
evening FOR AZZ006-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...TM/ET
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff