Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Thunderstorm chances and strength continue to be the main
challenges for the period.

Upper trough continues to spin over the Northern Rockies, with
one vort max lifting through western ND and another rounding the
base of the trough and moving through WY. The southern shortwave
will lift northeastward into the Plains tonight as the upper
trough gets a negative tilt. This should finally push the
convective activity that has only been clipping our northwestern
counties further eastward into the CWA as the weak cold front
moves east. The big question will be how strong storms will be as
they move into our area. With dew points in the low and even mid
70s, there is plenty of moisture to work with and ML CAPE values
are near or over 3000 J/kg across most of the western and central
CWA. Deep layer bulk shear so far has not been as impressive over
our area, fairly minimal with the 35 to 40 kts staying to our
west. The best shear is expected to move eastward tonight as the
frontal boundary kicks out, although the overlap between good
instability and good shear will remain fairly narrow. Think that
this will be enough for a complex of thunderstorms to move across
eastern ND later this evening, eventually arriving in western MN
and weakening towards morning.

Most everything tomorrow, from highs to additional convection,
will depend on how tonight plays out. The main synoptic forcing
will be the shortwave moving across the region to the northeast,
along with the frontal boundary that will be stalling then washing
out throughout the day on Wednesday. Continued to keep fairly high
POPs as showers will linger into the morning, and some
redevelopment will be possible over our far eastern counties by
afternoon. At this point it seems like the best instability will
be to our east, but will continue to keep an eye on how things
evolve. Frontal boundary will be washing out and temps and dew
points will be only slightly lower than they are today. Kept highs
in the low to mid 80s with cloud cover however. We should be
between systems Wednesday night and conditions should pretty quiet
with lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Little change in the extended from previous runs. The upper ridge
remains in place and will continue a pattern of warmer temperatures
across the region. High temperatures throughout stay mainly in the
upper 80s and low 90s...with dew point readings in the 60s to around
70. This will keep heat indices in the mid 90s in portions of the
area every afternoon. Otherwise...a few embedded disturbances are
expected to propagate through the flow...which will help trigger
isolated showers and storms through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Quite a bit of MVFR ceilings continue to hang around the forecast
area, going out of VFR as the morning stratus scatters out but
then we get more cu development. Think there should be at least
some period of VFR this afternoon before storms begin to move in
later this afternoon at KDVL and tonight for the further east
airports. After storms fizzle out later tonight, there could be
another period of MVFR ceilings at most sites. Some improvement to
VFR by the end of the period. Winds will stay out of the
southeast for this afternoon and evening, shifting to the west and
southwest as the storms/frontal boundary come through.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
152 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ014-301930-
Benson ND-
152 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BENSON COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Heimdal, or 38 miles southwest of Devils Lake, moving north at 45
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leeds, Maddock, Esmond, Harlow, Brinsmade, Flora and Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4831 9979 4831 9924 4785 9930 4785 9980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 190DEG 40KT 4782 9959

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ014-302100-
Benson ND-
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BENSON COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

At 306 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Selz, or 50 miles west of Devils Lake, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leeds, Maddock, Esmond, Harlow, Knox, York and Fillmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9984 4837 9942 4785 9950 4785 9981
      4802 9981 4802 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 192DEG 26KT 4783 9988

Lynch