Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
239 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

The main impact in this portion of the forecast is severe weather
and the potential for hail or strong winds late this afternoon
into the early evening. This is actually pretty low, see
discussion to follow.

Quite a few high resolution guidance members earlier this morning
had started showing a more chaotic storm evolution this afternoon
and early evening. It looked strange at the time, but with the
lack of a well defined frontal boundary or surface pattern, it
started to make sense. These solutions showed some development in
the early afternoon across southeast North Dakota, then additional
development slightly further west in the hours to follow. These
solutions were not too far off the mark. Storms did fire up around
130 pm around Barnes County, but were fairly pulsy. With the lack
of strong shear, they have not lasted for more than a few volume
scans before weakening again. Think this trend will continue
through the early evening, meaning some storms may briefly get
strong, but then die down again. The further east these storms
move, the less instability exists from the clouds/rain earlier in
the day. Think any stronger storms should be done by 6 to 7 pm, or
even earlier. More shower and storm development is possible
Sunday, mainly with the heating of the day again. Best chances for
Sunday will be along the North Dakota and South Dakota border and
southward.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

A cool start with a warming trend and multiple chances for rain and
possibly thunderstorms. NBM, ensemble, and deterministic guidance
all suggest that after a cooler than average start to the week we
will warm each day through the end of the month. After highs in the
upper 60s and low 70s on Monday expect low 80s by the end of the
week.

On the precipitation front, expect chances for rain each day during
the week as multiple short waves move through the Northern Plains.
With MU CAPE values generally under 500 J/kg throughout the week
severe seem unlikely at this point due to a lack of instability tied
to the cooler temperatures and lower dew points. There could be
enough instability for some general thunderstorms, but strong to
severe storms look less likely. The best chances for rain and
thunderstorms at this point looks to be on Monday and Friday as
those days have the best synoptic support. There still remains quite
a spread in ensemble systems for Friday though so rain amounts and
thunderstorm chances remain uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Having a little more doubt on this shift about the potential
for storms this afternoon. KDVL should be west of this hazard,
and KTVF and KBJI may stay too far east. However, KGFK and KFAR
may still see some storms between 4 and 7 pm. Winds die down after
sunset, and some guidance is hinting at MVFR clouds by early
Sunday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
256 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

MNZ001>004-007-029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054-212000-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Wilkin-Towner-
Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh-
256 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms may produce 1.5 inch diameter hail or wind
gusts to 60 mph through 6 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday into Monday,
and again late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-212000-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-
Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
256 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday into Monday,
and again late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     HAIL             5 NW ROGERS             47.12N 98.28W
06/20/2020  M1.25 INCH       BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM FACEBOOK, MOSTLY NICKELS W/ A
            FEW LARGER THAN QUARTERS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
327 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             6 ENE COOPERSTOWN       47.48N 98.01W
06/20/2020  M1.25 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

            ALSO HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN. GROUND WHITE WITH
            HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             GRAFTON                 48.42N 97.40W
06/20/2020  M0.88 INCH       WALSH              ND   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL LASTED UNTIL 330 PM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             6 S BINFORD             47.47N 98.35W
06/20/2020  M1.25 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

MNZ001-NDZ027-030-202130-
West Polk MN-Traill ND-Grand Forks ND-
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN
GRAND FORKS AND NORTHERN TRAILL COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 343 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Buxton, or 23 miles southwest of Grand Forks, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Holmes around 350 PM CDT.
  Buxton around 355 PM CDT.
  Reynolds around 400 PM CDT.
  Thompson around 405 PM CDT.
  Bygland around 425 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4748 9730 4766 9746 4785 9695 4762 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 242DEG 27KT 4760 9727

NC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NDZ038-049-202200-
Ransom ND-Barnes ND-
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RANSOM AND
SOUTHEASTERN BARNES COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 356 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Ransom State Park, or 25 miles south of Valley City, moving east
at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Fort Ransom around 410 PM CDT.
  Little Yellowstone, Fort Ransom State Park and Kathryn around 415
  PM CDT.
  Nome around 440 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 9803 4663 9820 4682 9781 4653 9762
      4646 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 248DEG 17KT 4656 9806

NC