Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Grand Forks, ND

757 
WWUS53 KFGF 180020
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
720 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

MNC069-089-NDC067-099-180045-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-200618T0045Z/
Marshall MN-Kittson MN-Walsh ND-Pembina ND-
720 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...KITTSON...NORTHEASTERN WALSH AND EASTERN
PEMBINA COUNTIES...

At 719 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Northcote, or
34 miles northeast of Grafton, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hallock, Drayton, Pembina, Lancaster, Kennedy, Oakwood and St.
Vincent.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 168 and 214, and
between mile markers 216 and 217.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4892 9656 4826 9710 4836 9740 4900 9725
      4900 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 199DEG 30KT 4885 9702 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Convection has developed across eastern ND and the northern valley
over the passed 60 to 90min. Severe thunderstorm watch exists
through midnight for much of the area. From a mesoanalysis stand
point the strongest storms due to stronger shear and better mid
level lapse rates should be across the NE ND in the near term.
Supercell currently exists in Walsh County with more multicellular
activity to the south. This activity will lift to the north
northeast with the area of activity gradually shifting to the east
this evening. Additional development is expected in the southern
valley and eventually in MN later this evening into the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Convective trends and strength will continue to be the main
headache for the period.

Festering elevated convection continues to linger over
northeastern ND along an axis of warm air advection. The big
question is if we will get some surface based development later on
this afternoon or evening along the stalled front extending from
our northwestern edge of the CWA into south central ND. Heating
has been a bit better than expected, with areas that saw rain from
the elevated activity quickly recovering into the 90s. Capping
therefore is not as strong as expected, but there continues to not
be that great of upper forcing with the shortwave still to the
southwest. There is some question on if we will get some surface
based convection going in the next hour or so, or if initiation
will hold off until closer to 00Z with the upper support. CAMs
would support the second scenario but have been doing poorly with
our elevated convection so will be taking them with a grain of
salt. Starting to see some better glaciation of the clouds
extending into south central ND, so think there may be some
development in the next few hours in that area. Have some pretty
high POPs and will continue to keep a severe mention, probably
more for one and a half inch hail and 60-70 mph winds as the
supercell chances diminish as storms head into our area. The
severe threat will continue into portions of the overnight as
another weak shortwave lifts northeastward from SD along the
boundary that is slowly moving eastward.

The pretty active pattern will continue into tomorrow with the
overnight shortwave lifting into MN and Ontario, and the surface
trough axis and cold front pushing slowly east. With showers and
thunderstorms ongoing in the morning, do not think we will
destabilize as much as today, but can't completely rule out
something pulsing up in west central MN on Thursday. Decent cold
air advection behind the surface trough should knock temps down
into the 70s, and even some 40s and 50s will be possible Thursday
night as we get some decreasing clouds and cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Main chance for impactful weather will come over the weekend, with
good chances for at least some strong, if not severe, tstms.

Fri looks to be drier and seasonally mild, as a Canadian airmass
descends upon the Northern Plains behind the departing cold front.
Afternoon highs look to be in the seasonal 70s with cooler overnight
lows from the upper 40s into the 50s. The weekend for our region
still looks to feature an upper low north of the border likely to
spin a couple of spokes/lobes through the forecast area. Sfc based
CAPE and bulk shear during the aftn/early eve each day look to be
sufficient for at least strong tstms, especially if short waves are
coincident with time of peak heating.

Another boundary passage slated for later Sun will be succeeded by a
dry and seasonal beginning to the new week. The next convective
chance should present on Tue, with increasing CAPE/shear values in
advance of a sfc boundary/shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Thunderstorms expected over the next 6 to 8 hours for the all but
BJI. DVL will just be VCTS. FAR , GFK and TVF will all see some
TS activity in the 4 to 8Z time frame. LLWS expected at BJI as
winds decouple this evening. In the wake of the convection some
MVFR CIGs will be possible towards morning with VFR and westerly
winds expected tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
514 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
514 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
into the early evening. Fires that develop may be hard to control.

Thunderstorm chances increase by this evening, and periods of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight across the
region. Severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon
through this evening, with hail up to 2 inches, damaging winds to
75 mph, and tornadoes will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall
and slow moving thunderstorms may lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday morning, ending
in ND first but lingering in Minnesota into the afternoon. A few
severe thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon along
and east of a line from Lake of the Woods to Otter Tail County.
Hail to 1 inch and 60 mph winds would be the main threats.
Locally heavy rainfall will also remain possible in Minnesota.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue through early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
536 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054-172330-
Nelson ND-Eddy ND-Benson ND-Towner ND-Western Walsh County ND-
Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
536 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENSON...
SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER...SOUTHWESTERN CAVALIER...WESTERN NELSON...
RAMSEY...SOUTHWESTERN WALSH AND EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warwick, or 16 miles southeast of Devils Lake, moving north at 40
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Devils Lake, New Rockford, Camp Grafton, Lakota, Lakewood Park, Fort
Totten and Sheyenne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4872 9913 4840 9786 4838 9786 4767 9844
      4767 9850 4759 9851 4759 9874 4768 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 193DEG 35KT 4790 9868

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
538 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 S GREENBUSH           48.67N 96.18W
06/17/2020                   Roseau             MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTED LOOKING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM 2 SOUTH OF
            GREENBUSH

&&

JKAISER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
600 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDZ026>029-038-180000-
Griggs ND-Nelson ND-Steele ND-Barnes ND-Grand Forks ND-
600 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS...
SOUTHEASTERN NELSON...GRIGGS...WESTERN BARNES AND WESTERN STEELE
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wimbledon, or 25 miles northwest of Valley City, moving north at 40
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cooperstown, Finley, McVille, Aneta, Wimbledon, Sanborn and Binford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4663 9843 4698 9844 4698 9847 4725 9847
      4786 9829 4767 9768 4663 9824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 200DEG 36KT 4720 9837

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
616 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

MNZ004-007-NDZ008-016-027-180015-
Kittson MN-West Marshall MN-Pembina ND-Eastern Walsh County ND-
Grand Forks ND-
616 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARSHALL...CENTRAL
KITTSON...NORTH CENTRAL GRAND FORKS...EASTERN WALSH AND EASTERN
PEMBINA COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 616 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Voss, or 9 miles south of Grafton, moving north at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grafton, Hallock, Drayton, Stephen, Minto, St. Thomas and Oslo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4879 9651 4817 9710 4817 9715 4816 9714
      4816 9712 4814 9715 4814 9713 4809 9718
      4814 9763 4900 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 200DEG 37KT 4828 9742

CJ