Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1025 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Updated grids to increase POPs across southern third of CWA
through the late forenoon and early afternoon. A convective
cluster is moving from northcentral SD into that area... mainly
along and south of a stalled frontal boundary, roughly along a
Bemidji-Detroit Lakes-Lisbon line. The SPC SWODY1 update from
1251z this morning has bumped much of that area into a Marginal
to Slight Risk for severe weather. Expectations are that the
cluster will move largely along and either side of that
boundary... based on steep mid-level lapse rates, mixed layer
cape ranging from 1000-2500 j/kg, and moderate MCS maintenance
capability. Thus some large hail and strong to severe wind gusts
are are possible. Mainly across southeast NFD through the noon
hour, and into portions of northwest and west-central MN through
mid afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Thunderstorm activity has nearly cleared eastern zones with
exception of a few cells near Waskish, which should move east of
area by 730 AM CDT. Had added some patchy fog to Bemidji area as
it had been down to one-quarter mile for about an hour. Fog not
too widespread but definitely some most across northwest MN and
now into the Red River Valley, where GFK has also gone down to
one-quarter mile. Think any areas of dense fog will quickly
rebound the next couple of hour but did expand coverage for much
of eastern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Early morning convection continues associated with frontal
boundary along intl border despite no shear in the near storm
environment. Storm should continue to slowly move west to east
along border area as sfc boundary translates east. Once front is
across the area by mid-morning, will continue to see a day in the
80s today but with much drier dew points this afternoon and it
should feel a tad bit cooler than a humid Friday as aftn dewpoints
lingering in the 50s for much of the area. Expect some modest
CAPE however across the southern tier of counties into Otter Tail
and Wadena counties as the drier air won't be able to punch into
those southern counties, keeping west central MN and the southern
valley warm and humid. Chances for more scattered convection
return to the area on Sunday with stronger storms capable of
producing quarter sized hail once again.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Sunday night through Tuesday...The cold front will still be pushing
through the CWA at the start of the period, with high pressure
building in behind it. There will be some lingering precip over our
eastern counties Sunday night, but conditions should become quiet
for the beginning of the work week. Temps will be slightly cooler
than seasonal averages on Monday behind the front but warming back
up for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...The pattern turns active again with upper
ridging building just to our west and southwesterly flow aloft
setting up for the middle and end of the week. South to
southeasterly surface winds return, bringing moisture back into the
area. Some of the R and M climate percentiles are very high for
Thursday night and Friday with specific humidity and QPF, which
seems to indicate a wet pattern. Have fairly high POPs on and off
although timing of various shortwaves is impossible to tell at this
point. Temps will be on the warmer side of average with highs in the
80s and the moisture keeping lows up in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Updated at 1025 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm are possible along and
south of a BJI-DTL-Q75 line through the late morning and early
afternoon. This could affect KBJI and KFAR through 18z. North and
west of that line expect generally VFR conditions in variable
cloudiness and light northerly winds. Tonight, expect a light
southerly return flow and scattered showers and thunderstorm
moving into the devils lake basin after 10z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Gust

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
855 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
054-091400-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Towner-
Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Western Walsh-
855 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon
and evening, mainly in the Red River Valley and west central and
northwest Minnesota. Hail up to 1.5 inches, wind gusts to 75 mph,
and even a brief tornado is possible. Activity will be more
isolated across the Devils Lake basin. Additional periods of
thunderstorm activity are possible later next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ003-024-027>032-040-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-091400-
Clay-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
855 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cluster of storms will move through the southern Red River
Valley this morning into west-central Minnesota through early to
mid afternoon. This cluster may bring gusty winds up to 60 mph
and hail to the size of quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon
and evening, mainly in the Red River Valley and west central and
northwest Minnesota. Hail up to 1.5 inches, wind gusts to 75 mph,
and even a brief tornado is possible. Activity will be more
isolated across the Devils Lake basin. Additional periods of
thunderstorm activity are possible later next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1126 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     HAIL             WNW NARY                47.37N 94.82W
08/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       Hubbard            MN   911 CALL CENTER

            HAIL NEAR LAKE PLANTAGENET. NEAR THE BELTRAMI COUNTY
            LINE.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1128 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     HAIL             5 WNW NARY              47.39N 94.92W
08/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       Hubbard            MN   911 CALL CENTER

            HAIL NEAR LAKE PLANTAGENET. NEAR THE BELTRAMI COUNTY
            LINE.

&&

GGUST