Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Grand Forks, ND

422 
WWUS53 KFGF 250609
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
109 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

MNC027-NDC017-073-077-250618-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-200725T0630Z/
Clay MN-Ransom ND-Cass ND-Richland ND-
109 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...
NORTHEASTERN RANSOM...EASTERN CASS AND NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4667 9754 4718 9694 4677 9639 4663 9673
      4663 9678 4661 9677 4643 9721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 224DEG 26KT 4690 9686 

$$

Lynch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Storms continue to evolve and move across the area this evening.
A cluster of storms that produced severe winds along and north
northeast of Grand Forks moving off into Canada. With increasing
low level jet convection continues to increase in coverage across
the southern valley. Expecting this area of storms to be heavy
rainfall producers and sporadic wind makers as storms merge and
precip load overcomes the weak shear within the updraft and
collapses. Will see the activity slowly move east overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Line of storms has moved into the central and northern valley with
highly efficient rainfall producers and some severe wind
potential. Threat will increase over the next couple hours if the
cold pool develops and shear from the low level jet helps
intensify convection. CAMs continue to move this round convection
into NW MN in the next couple hours with another round moving
across the southern valley overnight. The unidirectional shear
values and weak mid level lapse rates suggest storms will be
unorganized and with the severe risks highly dependent on the
aforementioned low level jet and its ability to increase the
shear.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Convective thunderstorm evolution the main concern in the evening
and overnight time frame. Will see thunderstorms expand in
coverage as forcing from short wave moves closer to the FA. Upper
forcing already responsible for convection upstream and the main
question is if there is enough shear to allow storms to organize
into a cluster or complex and if it will be producing severe
winds. SFC based CAPE peaking out around 6500j/kg per mesoanalysis
with 4500j/kg of MLCAPE shows plenty of instability and with PWATS
above 1.5 inches heavy rainfall a big concern with any storms even
sub severe ones. After the initial storm development expected
in the next one to 2 hours along a New Rockford to Grafton line
where and when there is a hail threat, the primary concern will
be wind gusts to 70mph and heavy rainfall as storms cluster and merge
moving eastward into the valley after 10pm per CAM guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Convective strength and timing will be the main challenges for the
period.

Southwesterly flow aloft and south winds continue to bring hot and
humid conditions to the region this afternoon. Dew points were
already in the 70s this morning, with a few localized spots
hitting the low 80s. Will expand the excessive heat warning into
the northern Red River Valley as several of the higher dew point
pools have been up there and their heat index values are above the
portions of the southern RRV currently.

With all the heat and humidity, CAPE values have been huge, over
4000 J/kg, although there has been some capping that is starting
to erode over the RRV. Cap is still pretty stout further west,
but the shortwave is starting to set off some convection off in
western SD. There have been towers over central ND that have been
struggling to get going and move into our western counties. The
good deep layer bulk shear is still well to the west with the
forcing, so think these initial updrafts will struggle for a while
longer. CAMs continue to show storms developing along the surface
trough just to our west close to 00Z, then moving it into our
western counties later this evening. Plenty of instability to work
with in the 00Z to 03Z time frame before sun sets, and although
the shear is still around 30 kts, it should be enough to maintain
some sort of thunderstorm complex with hail over an inch early on
as well as damaging winds up to 70 mph throughout the night. With
the low level jet ramping up, some winds continuing as the system
moves into western MN remains possible.

Much of tomorrow will depend on how tonight plays out and if there
is lingering convective debris. It does look like there should be
at least some clearing, and heat and humidity will continue to
hang around before the front comes through Saturday. After a bit
of a break at least in the western counties think there is the
potential for another round of thunderstorms, and with shear even
better than today (35 to 40 kts), some severe hail and winds are
not out of the question. A shortwave moving through southern
Canada will help push a cold front down Saturday night, with the
complex moving east with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

The weather pattern is expected to quiet down a bit heading into
next week. H5 flow becomes northwesterly on Sunday with ridging
taking shape across the northern US Rockies and into British
Columbia and Alberta. Heading into mid-week, the ridge axis
progresses into Saskatchewan, with H5 flow responding and becoming
more northerly over the CWA late Wednesday. Overall, a much drier
and slightly cooler pattern is expected Sunday through Friday.

Remnant showers and thunderstorms work eastward Sunday morning, with
quiet weather expected through the remainder of the day. Highs are
expected to be in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Monday brings very
similar conditions with dry weather expected across much of the CWA.
Heading into Tuesday, most of the area remains dry, with slight
precipitation chances working back into the Lake of the Woods
region, in association with a shortwave passage.

Look for warmer temperatures Wednesday through Friday slight chances
for afternoon thunderstorms each day. Ensemble members diverge
significantly starting Wednesday, with a divide regarding moisture
values and timing. This will determine our risk for severe weather
heading into the end of next week. At this time, there is low
confidence in specifics, but a weak signal for a return to hotter
and more humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Thunderstorm concerns in the overnight period at FAR and BJI with
mvfr CIGs possible in the wake of the convective activity. Light
winds will turn to the nw late.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

MNZ001>004-007-029-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052-053-252100-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Wilkin-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
355 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Dangerous heat index values around 105 are expected this
afternoon and early evening.

Scattered severe thunderstorms may develop into eastern North
Dakota late this afternoon and spread into parts of west central
and northwest Minnesota this evening. Large hail, damaging winds,
and localized flooding will be the main threats. The severe threat
ends during the evening, however clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the overnight period.
Localized flooding will continue to be a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
parts of the region Saturday and Saturday night. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out during the afternoon and
evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding would
be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-252100-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-
Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
355 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

High heat index values around 100 are expected this afternoon and
early evening.

Scattered severe thunderstorms may develop into eastern North
Dakota late this afternoon and spread into parts of west central
and northwest Minnesota this evening. Large hail, damaging winds,
and localized flooding will be the main threats. The severe threat
ends during the evening, however clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the overnight period.
Localized flooding will continue to be a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
parts of the region Saturday and Saturday night. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out during the afternoon and
evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding would
be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-054-252100-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Western Walsh-
355 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms may develop into eastern North
Dakota late this afternoon and spread into parts of west central
and northwest Minnesota this evening. Large hail, damaging winds,
and localized flooding will be the main threats. The severe threat
ends during the evening, however clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the overnight period.
Localized flooding will continue to be a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
parts of the region Saturday and Saturday night. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out during the afternoon and
evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding would
be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

NDZ049-052-053-250515-
Sargent ND-Richland ND-Ransom ND-
1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RANSOM...SOUTHWESTERN
RICHLAND AND SARGENT COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1109 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stirum, or 53 miles south of Valley City, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gwinner, Milnor, Lidgerwood, Forman, Wyndmere, Rutland and Cogswell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9801 4628 9801 4628 9803 4631 9803
      4645 9703 4593 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 261DEG 35KT 4616 9785

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

MNZ005-006-008-009-013-250530-
East Marshall MN-North Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-Roseau MN-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
1127 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARSHALL...CENTRAL
ROSEAU...NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...SOUTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
NORTH CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1127 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holt, or 16 miles north of Thief River Falls, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roseau, Middle River, Grygla, Goodridge, Wannaska, Salol and
Strathcona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4812 9588 4838 9605 4847 9630 4900 9571
      4900 9565 4888 9537 4839 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 222DEG 39KT 4835 9610

Lynch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARREN                  48.20N 96.77W
07/24/2020                   MARSHALL           MN   PUBLIC

            A LARGE TREE BRANCH BROKEN DOWN.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E NEWFOLDEN           48.36N 96.24W
07/24/2020                   Marshall           MN   PUBLIC

            TREE BLOWN DOWN AT A RURAL HOMESTEAD.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1159 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PROSPER                 46.96N 97.02W
07/24/2020  M52 MPH          CASS               ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GGUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

NDZ049-052-053-250615-
Sargent ND-Richland ND-Ransom ND-
1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RANSOM...WEST
CENTRAL RICHLAND AND SARGENT COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1227 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gwinner, or 44 miles west of Wahpeton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Wyndmere, Rutland, Cogswell and Havana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9801 4595 9801 4636 9769 4636 9697
      4594 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 215DEG 31KT 4620 9754

Lynch