Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Watch will be issued shortly...all other parameters on track.

UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for areas just to
the west of this FA. Expect if current trends continue, this FA
will be included in one by late evening. At this point, think that
strong wind gusts will still be the main impact. Using a raw
timing tool on the line of current storms, they should reach our
western FA by midnight to 2 am. So forecast remains on track at
this point.

UPDATE Issued at 706 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

The complex of storms we are watching for our area overnight has
already gotten going over eastern Montana, where a severe
thunderstorm watch was issued earlier. There have already been
several strong wind gusts associated with those storms. They still
have some area to go yet in eastern Montana before they get into
western North Dakota, so it is still looking like midnight or
later for a start time in our western FA. Components all still
appear to be on track for a line of storms to move through the FA
overnight, with severe straight line winds likely the main impact.
These storms should be fast movers, so do not think flooding will
be a big issue, but there are susceptible areas. Now is the time
to prepare, secure any loose outdoor property, and have a safety
plan in place in case a warning is issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Clear skies prevail this afternoon with quiet weather expected
through early this evening. Our primary concern revolves around
severe thunderstorms that are expected to move through the region
tonight into Wednesday morning. An upper trough, and associated cold
front, is currently working across the Pacific Northwest and into
western Montana. Extending southward, is a negatively tilted
extension of this trough and an associated LLJ forming in the 850 to
700 mb layer. This is set to strengthen as we head into the
overnight hours as this system pushes eastward.

In central and eastern ND, there will be modest instability waiting
as CAPE will be in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. The 850 to 700 jet
is expected to increase, reaching into the 50 to 75 knot range. Low
level shear will be upwards of 30 to 50 knots in the 0 to 1km and 0
to 3 km layer respectively. This will give us a rather high risk for
significant wind gusts and brief QLCS tornadoes. Initially, we could
see hail up to 2 inches as well, mainly for the Devils Lake Basin,
Sheyenne Valley, and James Valley as supercells are possible. The
axis will shift across the Devils Lake Basin, moving eastward into
the Red River Valley and into west-central and northwest Minnesota
during the early morning hours.

Overall, the potential for widespread weather related impacts is
high due to the possibility of significant wind gusts of 75 mph or
greater along with isolated tornadoes and large hail.

Heading into Wednesday, ongoing showers and storms continue eastward
along the cold front. There remains some uncertainty regarding the
forward progression of the front; however, the risk of severe
thunderstorms remains in portions of west-central Minnesota during
the afternoon and early evening period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Little change in the extended from previous runs. Mainly zonal flow
is in place over the Northern Plains...with a series of short waves
propagating through the flow triggering isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Otherwise...expect temperatures to be near seasonal
norms.

By late Sunday...ensemble guidance hints at increased southwest flow
aloft as an upper trof digs into the intermountain West...and the
upper ridge begins a shift and amplification over the area. Expect a
slight warming trend as thickness values increase and return flow
draws warmer air over the region. Chances for isolated storm will
continue through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Pretty much kept with the timing from the 00z set of TAFs. Main
impacts will be gusty winds with overnight storms. Best chance for
any redevelopment Wednesday afternoon will be at KBJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-082045-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
338 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop or move into the area this evening and
continue through the overnight hours. All hazards are expected, with
risks for hail to 2 inches, wind gusts of 75 mph or greater,
localized flash flooding and possibly a tornado. Main risk area is
all of eastern North Dakota, the Red River valley and
northwestern Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A chance for severe thunderstorms exists Wednesday east of a
Baudette to Detroit Lakes to Wahpeton line. Threats are large hail
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

NDZ028-038-039-049-052-053-080615-
Griggs ND-Sargent ND-Richland ND-Ransom ND-Barnes ND-Cass ND-
1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANSOM...SOUTHWESTERN CASS...
SOUTHERN GRIGGS...BARNES...NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND AND SARGENT COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1217 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
near Fort Ransom to near Valley City moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Valley City, Casselton, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor and Forman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4605 9801 4663 9803 4663 9844 4752 9849
      4728 9796 4724 9796 4724 9789 4687 9710
      4598 9727
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 209DEG 31KT 4648 9786

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     HAIL             LITCHVILLE              46.66N 98.19W
07/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       BARNES             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
124 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 N MADDOCK             47.99N 99.53W
07/08/2020  M62.00 MPH       Benson             ND   MESONET

            NDAWN SITE 2N MADDOCK

0112 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N BAKER               48.18N 99.65W
07/08/2020  M66.00 MPH       Benson             ND   MESONET

            NDAWN SITE 1N BAKER

&&

KNUTSVIG