Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
712 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Sfc low was northeast of Bismarck and a wavy warm front was
located east to near Grand Forks and into northern MN. T-storms
have been firing near the warm front since 3 pm and moving north.
Overall heavy rainers due to very moist airmass with PWATs near 2
inches. Some training in spots, esp earlier in western Benson
county where over 4 inches of rain has fallen.

Question will be storm intensity along cold front which will swing
northeast thru E ND the next several hours. Some low level shear
noted along the boundary with storms near Steele ND, but overall
thinking that line of storms will be mostly sub severe and will
continue to see t-storms feed north with heavy rain the main
threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Thunderstorm chances and strength continue to be the main
challenges for the period.

Upper trough continues to spin over the Northern Rockies, with
one vort max lifting through western ND and another rounding the
base of the trough and moving through WY. The southern shortwave
will lift northeastward into the Plains tonight as the upper
trough gets a negative tilt. This should finally push the
convective activity that has only been clipping our northwestern
counties further eastward into the CWA as the weak cold front
moves east. The big question will be how strong storms will be as
they move into our area. With dew points in the low and even mid
70s, there is plenty of moisture to work with and ML CAPE values
are near or over 3000 J/kg across most of the western and central
CWA. Deep layer bulk shear so far has not been as impressive over
our area, fairly minimal with the 35 to 40 kts staying to our
west. The best shear is expected to move eastward tonight as the
frontal boundary kicks out, although the overlap between good
instability and good shear will remain fairly narrow. Think that
this will be enough for a complex of thunderstorms to move across
eastern ND later this evening, eventually arriving in western MN
and weakening towards morning.

Most everything tomorrow, from highs to additional convection,
will depend on how tonight plays out. The main synoptic forcing
will be the shortwave moving across the region to the northeast,
along with the frontal boundary that will be stalling then washing
out throughout the day on Wednesday. Continued to keep fairly high
POPs as showers will linger into the morning, and some
redevelopment will be possible over our far eastern counties by
afternoon. At this point it seems like the best instability will
be to our east, but will continue to keep an eye on how things
evolve. Frontal boundary will be washing out and temps and dew
points will be only slightly lower than they are today. Kept highs
in the low to mid 80s with cloud cover however. We should be
between systems Wednesday night and conditions should pretty quiet
with lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Little change in the extended from previous runs. The upper ridge
remains in place and will continue a pattern of warmer temperatures
across the region. High temperatures throughout stay mainly in the
upper 80s and low 90s...with dew point readings in the 60s to around
70. This will keep heat indices in the mid 90s in portions of the
area every afternoon. Otherwise...a few embedded disturbances are
expected to propagate through the flow...which will help trigger
isolated showers and storms through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Thru 06z in E ND, GFK and DVL majority IFR and MVFR cigs/vsbys in
rain/thunderstorms. Fargo will see t-storm chances increase by
04z-06z, same as TVF. Bemidji VFR/MVFR cigs with southeast wind,
but chc of precip is lower and mainly late tonight/Wed AM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-010845-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-
Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
330 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible late tonight, but widespread severe
weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periodic thunderstorm chances continue throughout this period,
along with afternoon peaks of heat and humidity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ001>004-007-029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054-010845-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Wilkin-Towner-
Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh-
330 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly
across the Devils Lake region. Hail up to ping pong ball size, 60
mph wind gusts, and heavy rain would be the main threat from these
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periodic thunderstorm chances continue throughout this period,
along with afternoon peaks of heat and humidity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
504 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ014-015-302245-
Benson ND-Ramsey ND-
504 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BENSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
RAMSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grahams Island State Park, or 13 miles west of Devils Lake, moving
northwest at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minnewaukan, Penn, Churchs Ferry, Grahams Island State Park and
Lakewood Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4808 9891 4794 9919 4805 9934 4824 9920
      4834 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 146DEG 16KT 4806 9915

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
535 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ006-014-015-302315-
Benson ND-Towner ND-Ramsey ND-
535 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BENSON...
SOUTHWESTERN TOWNER AND WEST CENTRAL RAMSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Churchs Ferry, or 20 miles northwest of Devils Lake, moving northwest
at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leeds, Brinsmade, Churchs Ferry and Maza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9949 4842 9950 4853 9928 4821 9909
      4814 9934 4837 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 156DEG 23KT 4825 9926

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
627 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ006-007-015-010015-
Towner ND-Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
627 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER...WESTERN
CAVALIER AND NORTHWESTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Starkweather, or 26 miles north of Devils Lake, moving northeast at
40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Langdon, Munich, Starkweather, Hampden, Webster, Clyde and Alsen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4827 9887 4854 9928 4900 9872 4870 9824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 216DEG 34KT 4849 9896

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
704 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ016-027-010045-
Eastern Walsh County ND-Grand Forks ND-
704 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRAND FORKS AND
SOUTHEASTERN WALSH COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ardoch, or 19 miles northwest of Grand Forks, moving north at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minto, Gilby, Forest River, Warsaw, Ardoch, Voss and Johnstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4838 9714 4837 9714 4836 9716 4835 9713
      4834 9712 4833 9714 4832 9712 4831 9714
      4831 9713 4803 9723 4806 9749 4840 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 189DEG 25KT 4813 9735

Lynch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
709 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 S ESMOND             47.86N 99.76W
06/30/2020  E60.00 MPH       Benson             ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS WITH PEA SIZED
            HAIL AND 4.20 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

&&

CJONES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
820 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ026-028-010200-
Griggs ND-Nelson ND-
820 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NELSON AND GRIGGS
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sutton, or 42 miles northwest of Valley City, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cooperstown, McVille, Binford, Red Willow Lake, Sutton, Jessie and
Revere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4759 9850 4779 9814 4738 9799 4728 9847
      4732 9847 4733 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 236DEG 22KT 4748 9839

Lynch