River Flood Warning 8, NWS Grand Forks, ND

590 
WGUS83 KFGF 280106
FLSFGF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Minnesota...

  South Branch Buffalo River at Sabin affecting Clay County.

  Buffalo River near Dilworth affecting Clay County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Minnesota...North Dakota...

  Sheyenne River at Harwood affecting Cass County.

  Maple River near Mapleton affecting Cass County.

  Red River at Fargo affecting Cass and Clay Counties.

  Red River at Wahpeton affecting Wilkin and Richland Counties.

  Buffalo River near Hawley affecting Clay County.

  Wild Rice River (MN) at Hendrum affecting Norman County.

  Wild Rice River (ND) near Abercrombie affecting Richland County.

  Sheyenne River near Kindred affecting Richland and Cass Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message - Turn around, don't drown. Don't travel through 
flooded areas. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

People living in the Red River basin should monitor river levels 
while the river is in, or near, flood.

This forecast does not account for ice jams that can quickly raise 
local river levels with little or no notice.

River forecasts use 24 hours of forecast precipitation between April 
1st and October 1st, and 48 hours otherwise. However, depending on 
the situation, forecasts may include precipitation expected through 
the next 72 hours.
 
For more information go to the AHPS/River tab on our web page at 
www.weather.gov/grandforks.


NDC017-290715-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0004.200329T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/MPLN8.2.SM.200329T0600Z.200402T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Maple River near Mapleton.
* From late Saturday night until further notice.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 16.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast. This approaches the flood of record.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Sunday morning and continue rising to a crest of 22.0 feet early 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, MODERATE FLOOD.


&&

LAT...LON 4700 9698 4690 9691 4670 9722 4679 9732
      4694 9710

$$

MNC027-290715-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0005.200329T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/SABM5.1.SM.200329T0900Z.200401T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Branch Buffalo River at Sabin.
* From late Saturday night until further notice.
* At 6:45 PM CDT Friday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Crest based on potential future precipitation. 
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Sunday morning and continue rising to a crest of 14.0 feet Tuesday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Agricultural flooding begins.


&&

LAT...LON 4689 9670 4686 9657 4663 9650 4663 9666

$$

MNC027-290715-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0003.200329T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/DILM5.1.SM.200329T1500Z.200404T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Buffalo River near Dilworth.
* From Sunday morning until further notice.
* At 6:45 PM CDT Friday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Crest modeled near 20-21 feet 4/3-4/4, and id based on future 
  precipitation.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  Sunday morning and continue rising to 19.9 feet Friday evening. 
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, MODERATE FLOOD.


&&

LAT...LON 4692 9650 4684 9652 4689 9669 4704 9681
      4715 9682

$$

NDC017-290715-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0007.200331T2200Z-000000T0000Z/
/HWDN8.2.SM.200331T2200Z.200404T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Sheyenne River at Harwood.
* From Tuesday afternoon until further notice.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 77.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 84.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Simulated crest near 90 ft. on 4/3-4, based on future 
  precipitation.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage Tuesday 
  afternoon and continue rising to 89.9 feet Friday evening. 
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 91.0 feet, MAJOR FLOOD. BNSF railroad line may need to 
  be closed.


&&

LAT...LON 4709 9683 4697 9683 4693 9686 4692 9699
      4701 9698

$$

MNC027-NDC017-290715-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.3.SM.200325T0630Z.200403T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Red River at Fargo.
* Until further notice.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 20.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Crest expected 30-32 ft. between 4/1 and 4/4, based on future 
  precipitation.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 31.0 feet early Friday 
  morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, 1st Avenue N underpass is closed (Moorhead).


&&

LAT...LON 4677 9671 4676 9689 4724 9694 4724 9683
      4715 9673

$$

NDC077-290715-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ABRN8.3.SM.000000T0000Z.200402T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Wild Rice River (ND) near Abercrombie.
* Until further notice.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Crest 19-21 ft projected for 4/1 through 4/4, based on forecast 
  precipitation.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.0 feet 
  early Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, County Road 3 bridge (downstream of gage) 
  starts to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 4663 9696 4663 9679 4612 9664 4611 9712

$$

MNC167-NDC077-290715-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0008.200329T1600Z-200401T1500Z/
/WHNN8.1.SM.200329T1600Z.200330T0600Z.200331T0900Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Red River at Wahpeton.
* From Sunday morning to Wednesday morning.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 8.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Based on forecast precipitation over the weekend. 
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  Sunday morning to a crest of 11.5 feet early Monday morning. It 
  will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 11.6 feet, Otter Tail River water starts to flow into 
  the Breckenridge Diversion.  Water on Main Street (Breckenridge).


&&

LAT...LON 4650 9684 4650 9663 4603 9641 4602 9672

$$

NDC017-077-290715-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0010.200401T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/KNDN8.1.SM.200401T0900Z.200404T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Sheyenne River near Kindred.
* From late Tuesday night until further notice.
* At 7:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning and continue rising to 16.9 feet Friday evening. 
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Rural flooding near gage begins.


&&

LAT...LON 4672 9701 4663 9688 4645 9731 4659 9729

$$

MNC027-290715-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0009.200401T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/HWYM5.1.SM.200401T0900Z.200402T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Buffalo River near Hawley.
* From late Tuesday night until further notice.
* At 6:45 PM CDT Friday the stage was 4.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Crest based on forecast precipitation. 
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning and continue rising to a crest of 8.5 feet 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet, Minor Flood Stage. Parts of Hawley City Park 
  begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 4690 9601 4680 9633 4684 9652 4692 9650
      4701 9603

$$

MNC107-290715-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0011.200402T0215Z-000000T0000Z/
/HNDM5.1.SM.200402T0215Z.200404T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Wild Rice River (MN) at Hendrum.
* From Wednesday evening until further notice.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 10.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Backwater crest first week of April between 25 and 27 ft. , based 
  on forecast precipitation.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  Wednesday evening and continue rising to 25.1 feet Friday evening. 
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.


&&

LAT...LON 4732 9656 4722 9653 4715 9673 4724 9684
      4734 9683

$$

WJB

925 
WGUS83 KFGF 281524
FLSFGF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1024 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Minnesota...North Dakota...

  Red River at Wahpeton affecting Wilkin and Richland Counties.

.The Red River at Wahpeton will rise to near 10.5 feet Monday 
morning before slowly receding thereafter.

MNC167-NDC077-281630-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.W.0008.200329T1600Z-200401T1500Z/
/WHNN8.1.SM.200329T1600Z.200330T0600Z.200331T0900Z.NO/
1024 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Red River at Wahpeton.
* At 9:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 9.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.5 feet 
  Monday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 4650 9684 4650 9663 4603 9641 4602 9672

$$

Lynch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1030 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Low stratus has followed early trends and is now prevailing
across much of our area. Pockets of dense fog (1/4sm or less)
still being reported at a few locations (Gwinner, Langdon)
otherwise most locations are reporting lighter fog/less impacts.
Expectation is that fog should improve over the next few hours,
but cloud cover is harder to anticipated. Even with cloud cover
many locations are already above freezing due to WAA, and
guidance still shows this generally decreasing in coverage
through the afternoon. Besides adjusting sky trends and expanding
patchy fog mention I held off on adjusting temps.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Low clouds are moving north much faster than anticipated and some
fog is developing (Valley City and Fargo both reported 1/4 SM at
one point) but is only lasting one to two hours. SW winds are
increasing so not too concerned with areas of dense fog, but
patchy fog and some area of lower vsbys is probable. Adjusted sky
grids and wx grids to reflect this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

The short term period will be relatively quiet with no travel-
related impacts, although warmer temperatures and some light rain
across the southern valley will impact the spring melt.

Today...Northern half of the area will see some early sunlight
before increasing clouds mid-day. All but the far south will see
decreasing clouds this afternoon. With the southwest winds and
fair amount of mid-afternoon solar, temperatures should climb
well into the 40s...with areas such as
Leeds...Bemidji...Lidgerwood and Herman, MN possibly breaking into
the 50s. This will continue to feed the spring melt.

An upper low deepens over WY/CO and ejects out into the central
plains this afternoon.  The H700 low will track across Nebraska
tonight, then deepen Saturday as it lifts into southern Minnesota,
setting up a deformation zones over our far southeastern zones
Friday night/Saturday and continuing into the early long term period
(see discussion below).

Tonight...A very light amount of rain, or sprinkles, will move
into the extreme southern valley and portions of west central
Minnesota tonight. Late in the night, the far northern edge of
this precip may see a wintry mix but will most likely see warm
surface temperatures where any precip falls, with minimal impacts
expected. However, some areas of slipperiness cannot be ruled out
in west central Minnesota Saturday morning.

Tomorrow...Heavier rain moves into the southern half of the valley
and most of west central Minnesota Saturday as the upper low lifts
northwest and the deformation zone sets up over western MN. One-
quarter of an inch or so is possible along and east of a
Hankinson, ND to Bemidji, MN line Saturday, although the
transition to dry weather along that line will be very dependent
on the exact track of the system. Afternoon highs will be in the
40s, with areas west of Devils Lake possibly seeing the low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Saturday night will see the deformation band of rain and snow from
eastern SD thru central into northeastern MN.  High resolution
ensembles are a tad farther south with sfc low track and similar to
00z ECMWF with low from NW Iowa into SE MN 00z-12z Sun period.  NW
edge of heaviest precipitation skirts Elbow Lake to Wadena region
with 0.50 to 0.75 inch qpf.  1-2 inch qpf likely just southeast of
our immediate area. In the heavy precipitation area a likely
change over to snow due to dynamic cooling with a pocket of sub
zero 925 mb temps Willmar up thru near or west St Cloud into NE
MN. In this zone a few inches of snow is possible. Less confident
in snow amounts in our far southeastern fcst area as precipitation
will be a bit less and dynamic cooling a tad less as well. Going
with WPC and HREF/NBM it would indicate potential for up to 1 inch
Wadena and SE Ottertail county.

The good news is that the precipitation shield will by and large
miss the Red River valley, with only light rain amounts in the
Wahpeton area...less than 0.20 inch. This will have no impact on
river flooding.

Early next week will see the advertised warm up with warmest day
probably Monday due to better chc of sun.  But northern and central
RRV will be the coolest with the south-southeast wind and lingering
snow cover.  This area to stay in the mid-upr 40s with widespread
50s elsewhere.  Cold front to move through Tuesday night with rain
showers expected, then model spread increases greatly for Wed-Fri
period in regards to temps and precip chances as an upper trough
develops in western Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Morning IFR stratus is spreading rapidly northeast out of s cntrl
ND and expecting it to reach DVL by 06Z. Models want to sweep this
out of area from west to east by late morning to early aftn. Do
think at some point this afternoon we will see some sunshine and
cigs will b/c VFR, but expecting another round of IFR stratus late
tonight (midnight and beyond). Models also indicating some dense
fog development, and with a slight eastward wind component tonight
with saturated low levels due to snowmelt, tend to agree with this
thought process for GFK. Will keep vsby at 3/4 SM but something to
be aware for flight planning for Sat morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

River rises will continue along most rivers in the southern Red
River basin, with Red at Fargo and Wild Rice at Abercrombie forecast
to reach major stage mid to end next week. QPF thru the next 7 day
period will be light and at this time not enough to change river
levels.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Speicher
HYDROLOGY...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
414 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

MNZ009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040-280915-
North Beltrami-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
414 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An increase in river levels will continue today. The greatest
flooding risks are expected along the southern mainstem of the Red
River and along the Wild Rice River near Abercrombie. Refer to
the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information
on specific locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An increase in river levels will continue this weekend into next
week. The greatest flooding risks are expected along the southern
mainstem of the Red River and along the Wild Rice River near
Abercrombie. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
detailed information on specific locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ001>008-013>015-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054-280915-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Towner-
Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh-
414 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An increase in river levels will continue today. The greatest
flooding risks are expected along the southern mainstem of the Red
River and along the Wild Rice River near Abercrombie. Refer to
the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information
on specific locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Light rain may change to snow Saturday night, with some
accumulation possible. If this occurs, some slippery conditions
across portions of west central Minnesota are possible.

An increase in river levels will continue this weekend into next
week. The greatest flooding risks are expected along the southern
mainstem of the Red River and along the Wild Rice River near
Abercrombie. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
detailed information on specific locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Speicher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
746 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

NDZ049-052-053-271600-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor,
Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton
746 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...

Areas of fog occasionally reducing visibility to around one-
quarter mile have developed across the Forman, Lisbon and Wyndmere
areas of southeastern North Dakota. Travelers are encouraged to
be prepared for the possibility of rapidly deteriorating
visibility, and to use extra caution at intersections, railroad
crossings, and school bus stops. The fog is expected to improve by
late morning.