Frost Advisory 7, NWS Grand Forks, ND

594 
WWUS73 KFGF 181350
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
850 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

MNZ004>006-008-009-016-017-181500-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200918T1400Z/
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-
Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, 
Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, 
Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Bagley, Clearbrook, and Bemidji
850 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures have risen above freezing across the area, therefore
the Freeze Warning will be allowed to expire.

$$

MNZ001-002-007-013>015-022>024-027-028-032-NDZ007-008-016-027-054-
181500-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200918T1400Z/
West Polk-Norman-West Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wadena-
Cavalier-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, 
Twin Valley, Halstad, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Thief River Falls,
Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Mahnomen, 
Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, 
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, 
Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Langdon, Cavalier, 
Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, 
Park River, Grand Forks, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
850 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures have warmed across the region, therefore the Frost
Advisory will be allowed to expire.

$$

Knutsvig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
923 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Clouds have now thinned a little more, so had to make some more
sky cover adjustments. So far, temperatures have been coldest in
Lake of the Woods County, where some upper 20 readings have
already occurred. Lowered temperatures into the mid 20s in this
area, but they could always get a little colder. Looks like the
most cloud cover will track from the Devils Lake region down into
west central Minnesota overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Kind of a dirty surface high over the area again this evening,
with a lot of cloud cover around its fringes. Cloud trends
continue to be handled poorly by the models. There is a steady
parade of mid level clouds across most of the FA now, with even
more extending upstream in southern Manitoba and southeast
Saskatchewan. Unless these shift southward more than it appears
they will right now, there will again be a tight temperature
gradient across northwest Minnesota. Some areas could be pretty
chilly again, while others nearby could be warmer. The area with
the coldest potential is under the freeze warning, so other than
bumping up sky cover a little more this evening, no other changes
are planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Forecast challenge tonight is cloud cover trends. One short wave
now into west central MN while another is entering far NW MN. The
northern one will move southeast and is forecast to bring clearing
skies to far NW MN this evening with sfc high pressure settling
over the Intl Falls area overnight. This should give areas from
Bemidji to Hallock a good chance for another freeze. Coord with
DLH and kept headlines going and will issue another freeze warning
for this area.

Tricky part is farther south. How far will clearing get. High not
overhead and slightly warmer temps at 925 mb tonight will argue
for temps to stay near or just above the frost point outside of
the freeze area, But it will be close esp in that area from
Langdon to Grand Forks/Thief River Falls to Park Rapids. We will
have some frost mention here as lows drop mid 30s but uncertainty
on extent will mean no headlines. This area has had frost already
this month.

The southern fcst area looks the warmest again with lows upper
30s/low 40s and thus no frost mentioned.

Considerable high clouds will spread back over the area Friday and
temperatures will be a bit warmer with near 70 west to near 60
east. Not as cold Friday night and foresee no frost issues.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

A quiet period lies ahead of us. An omega ridge is going to be
over the northern plains in the upper levels to start off the
weekend. Ensembles are suggesting that this will be short lived,
and when it moves to the east it will bring a cut-off low to our
north. After this system, we will be in zonal flow for the
remainder of the period. Impacts from this low moving to our north
will be minimal, due to lack of forcing with the associated cold
front and lack of moisture being advected into the Red River
Valley. The ensembles have backed off on precipitation Sunday into
Monday as a result. At most, we could see some drizzle to light
showers this weekend, but no more than a trace of rainfall is
expected. The heat wasn't done with us yet the ensembles say, with
temperatures heating up into the low 80s near the South Dakota
border to start the work week next week. Temperatures will remain
above normal for the remainder of this week and into next week. We
could also see a return of the upper level smoke to our area
sometime this weekend or next week but confidence is low about
this due to guidance being mostly short term, however, the overall
upper level pattern suggests this being a possibility. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Considerable high and mid level moisture over most of the area
into Friday. though clearing expected to work into NW MN (BJI-TVF)
tonight. Winds light thru the pd mainly from the east under 10
kts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Considerable high and mid level moisture over most of the area
into Friday. though clearing expected to work into NW MN (BJI-TVF)
tonight. Winds light thru the pd mainly from the east under 10
kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Friday for MNZ004>006-008-009-016-
     017.

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...AK/Riddle
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
926 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

MNZ004>006-008-009-016-017-190230-
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-
926 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Freezing temperatures are expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ001>003-007-013>015-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-190230-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-West Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
926 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.