Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Tropical Depression Delta was located over western MS this
afternoon and should track northeastward overnight...arriving
over the southern Appalachians as an open wave Sunday morning.
The surface warm front appears to have moved into north GA except
for the far northern counties where easterly winds and some patchy
fog persist. Continued southerly flow of moist unstable air
should produce periods of showers and a few thunderstorms through
much of the afternoon and overnight. The best chance for strong
storms appears to be through 01z and a portion of north and west
GA is under a Tornado Watch until then. Best pops remain over
north GA on Sunday as the remains of Delta pass across the area.
So the FFA will remain in place until Sunday evening. Storm totals
range form two to four inches in the watch area with lesser
amounts elsewhere.

41

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

By Monday, the remnants of Hurricane Delta will be pushed out of the
area with primarily dry and mostly sunny days expected through the
long term forecast. While dry air will have moved in with in the
upper-levels, ample moisture will remain near the ground with the
aftermath of the rain system. With an upper-level trough over the
upper Mississippi River Valley bringing positive differential
vorticity advection over the area by Monday morning, light lift could
produce some shallow light showers and drizzle Monday morning, but
chances of accumulating rain is low for any given area at the
moment.

As the upper-level trough passes trough the Eastern CONUS, it'll
bring with it a cold front that's expected to move through the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday morning, with lows
dropping into the 50s Tuesday night; low 50s for North Georgia, and
upper 50s for Central Georgia. The frontal passage is expected to be
mostly dry but an outside chance for some showers are possible for
far North Georgia. Behind the front a strong, continental high
pressure will move into the region. From then on, quasi-zonal
conditions will setup for several day until our next upper-level
wave moves through on Friday with another strong cold front. Again,
this front is mostly expected to be dry but the moisture with this
system is trending upwards so slight chance Pops have been added to
the forecast. Afterwards highs around 80 for the metro for most of
the week should drop to around 70 on Friday afternoon.

Thiem

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Some MVFR ceilings persisting through the afternoon mainly KATL area
taf sites. KCSG/KMCN are expected to see VFR for much of the afternoon
and evening. All TAF sites will have off and on SHRA with best timing
18-06Z. A few severe TSTMs possible until 01z. Ceilings expected to
lower back to IFR after 02z. Winds will stay E/SE through the night
with a shift to S/SW after 14z Sunday. Wind speeds will be 8-12kts
with occasional gusts possible.

//ATL Confidence...
18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  78  67  81 /  70  80  40  20
Atlanta         69  76  67  80 /  90  70  40  20
Blairsville     64  71  63  76 /  90  90  60  20
Cartersville    69  76  66  82 /  90  80  30  20
Columbus        71  81  67  85 /  70  60  10  10
Gainesville     68  75  67  79 /  90  90  50  20
Macon           70  84  67  86 /  60  60  20  20
Rome            69  76  66  84 /  90  90  30  20
Peachtree City  69  77  66  81 /  90  70  30  20
Vidalia         73  84  69  84 /  50  60  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Carroll...Chattahoochee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Meriwether...Muscogee...North Fulton...Paulding...Polk...South
Fulton...Troup.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for the following
zones: Fannin...Lumpkin...Towns...Union...White.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
221 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
221 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GEORGIA THROUGH 9 PM EDT...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THROUGH 12
AM MONDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS

A line of heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
to move through the forecast are this afternoon through this
evening in association with the remnants of Hurricane Delta. A few
weak and brief tornadoes will be possible with this line of storms in
portions of west central and northwest Georgia this afternoon into
this evening. Other hazards will include occasional strong wind
gusts and periods of consistent moderate to heavy rainfall. The
heaviest rainfall totals are expected to occur in the higher
elevations where an average of 2 to 4 inches could accumulate
with locally higher amounts possible. Therefore, and Flash Flood
Watch will also be in effect for these areas of northeast Georgia
from 5 pm through midnight on Sunday Night / Monday Morning

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated thunderstorms and periods of heavy rainfall will continue
across north and central Georgia Sunday as the remnants of
Hurricane Delta continue to move by the area. Isolated flooding
and flash flooding will be possible, especially across
northeastern Georgia, where the heaviest rainfall is currently
forecast to occur. A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect until
midnight Sunday Night for portions of far north and northeast
Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
429 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

GAZ078-089-102100-
Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
429 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS AND
NORTHWESTERN MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 429 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Bibb City, or over
Phenix City...moving north at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Columbus, Bibb City, Goat Rock Lake, Laurel Hills, Green Island
Hills, Mountain Hill, Avondale, Columbus Metropolitan Airport, Rose
Hill, Fortson, Mulberry Grove and Lake Harding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A tornado watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for further statements or
possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3273 8512 3277 8496 3272 8486 3246 8496
      3246 8500 3252 8500 3259 8508 3262 8509
      3263 8508 3264 8510 3264 8511 3266 8509
      3269 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 187DEG 28KT 3251 8501

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
458 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

GAZ025-102130-
Jackson GA-
458 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

At 458 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Arcade, or near
Jefferson...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jefferson, Commerce, Arcade, Nicholson, Pendergrass, Bear Creek
Reservoir, Peach State Speedway and Apple Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3417 8338 3416 8336 3403 8339 3399 8348
      3400 8350 3399 8350 3397 8354 3402 8356
      3404 8357 3404 8360 3405 8362 3405 8365
      3422 8368 3422 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 180DEG 11KT 3404 8352

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

GAZ034-046>048-102130-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
501 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTON...
NORTHEASTERN ROCKDALE...SOUTHEASTERN GWINNETT AND NORTHERN NEWTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Gum Creek, or 7 miles
northeast of Conyers...moving north at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Snellville, Loganville, Walnut Grove, Between, Gum Creek,
Youth, Big Haynes Creek Park and Rosebud.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3367 8385 3367 8395 3384 8400 3390 8390
      3385 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 175DEG 23KT 3371 8390

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

GAZ037-047-049-102130-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Oconee GA-
501 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...
NORTHEASTERN WALTON AND WESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 501 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Ebenezer, or 9 miles
southeast of Monroe...moving north at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
North High Shoals, Bostwick, Good Hope and Ebenezer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3367 8352 3367 8362 3384 8366 3388 8356
      3384 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 185DEG 18KT 3371 8358