Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
357 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
The region remains situated under near-zonal flow on the eastern
edge of a broad upper trough, and just outside the periphery of a
surface high to the east. Ample tropical moisture and daytime
heating will promote diurnal showers and thunderstorms today and
Tuesday as a few upper level disturbances traverse the flow aloft.
Short-term models continue to show more coverage in activity over
portions of north and western Georgia tomorrow with short wave,
and forecast pops continue to be in the likely category for some
of this area. Near normal temperatures are expected through the
period, though the combination of these highs and ample humidity
will push the state to near Heat Advisory criteria Tuesday.
Overnight shift will need to watch for possible issuance.

31

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
High pressure will begin to shift offshore on Wednesday and Thursday
a frontal boundary approaches from the west. The boundary looks to
move through much of the CWA through the early part of the weekend,
but may end up stalling across southern portions of the state. High
pressure will build in from the north for the latter part of the
weekend into early next week.

A mostly diurnal pattern is expected through much of the extended
forecast. However, convection may be a bit enhanced along the
frontal boundary which will provide a bit more organized convergence.
No major changes to the ongoing pop forecast needed at this time.

Heat Index Values/Apparent Temperatures will get very close to Heat
Advisory criteria from Wednesday through Friday of this week. The
heat and humidity will combine to potentially create Heat
Index/Apparent T values of 105 or greater, mainly along and south of
a line from Athens to Columbus. If Heat Advisories have to be issued
this week, it would be the first issuance(s) of this summer.

NListemaa

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1240 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020/

UPDATE...
Finally seeing the drizzle and lower ceilings clear over the area,
with the more significant breaks in the clouds over central
Georgia where better heating has taken place. This is the same
area, however, that has seen more shower development over the last
1-2 hours. Anticipate increasing precip coverage through the
afternoon with some strong storms possible.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 735 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

The forecast area will remain under the influence of a tropical air
mass. This results in a mostly diurnal pattern of showers and
thunderstorms. No definite features to base convection on but
models do hint at a couple of short waves crossing the TN/OH
Valley area later today and again Tuesday. Pops will continue in the
likely category for north and west sections...and chance elsewhere
for today. Expect some diminishing of pops overnight...but
increasing into the likely category mainly across the north for
Tuesday as we see a second short wave. Expect temperatures to be
near normal through the period.

41

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The extended forecast starts on Tuesday evening with the
potential for some lingering showers overnight across the forecast
area with some weak perturbations remaining within the SW mid
level flow.

Moving through the day Wednesday, GFS and Euro are coming into
better agreement with the beginning of the intrusion of some
drier air across parts north and central Georgia. This drier air
looks to stick around the area through Thursday ahead of an
approaching frontal system.

That reprieve of drier air is not forecast to last however as
that frontal system is expected to approach the CWA and stall
over the area through weekend. The GFS and Euro are still at ends
in regards to the available moisture in the area, with the GFS
being the wetter of the two models. The GFS is showing PWATS near
2 inches or near the 90% climatological moving average across
parts of north and central Georgia. These showers look to linger
around the area and create a potential wet start to the week.

High temperatures through the extended are forecast to be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s, around 5 to 10 degrees above average. Heat
indices are forecast to increase to Heat Advisory (greater than
105 degrees) on Wednesday through Friday, mainly across portions
of central Georgia. Those who will be spending time outdoor should
take precautions against the heat. We will continue to monitor
these temperatures over the coming days. Overnight lows are
forecast to be in the low to mid 70s, about 6 to 12 degrees above
average.

Morgan

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Expect MVFR/VFR cigs to prevail this afternoon and evening, with
precip coverage increasing over the next few hours. At this time,
have removed TEMPO TS for the Atlanta-area TAF sites due to lower
confidence of those sites being directly impacted by TS. Showers
are still expected. For all sites winds will remain on the west
side at 8kt or less, except near storms where winds could gust to
20-25 mph. Expect storms to diminish 01-03z, with degrading
conditions overnight. SCT-BKN 006-010 cigs should develop by
08-10z, with improvement after sunrise. TS possible after 18z
Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on precip/TS chances.
High on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  90  73  92 /  20  40  30  20
Atlanta         73  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  20
Blairsville     67  84  68  86 /  30  50  40  20
Cartersville    72  89  73  92 /  30  40  30  20
Columbus        75  93  75  95 /  20  50  20  20
Gainesville     72  88  73  90 /  20  40  30  20
Macon           73  92  74  94 /  20  40  20  20
Rome            72  89  73  92 /  50  50  30  20
Peachtree City  72  90  72  92 /  30  50  30  20
Vidalia         75  93  76  95 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
232 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible with
damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday through
Sunday. A few storms may be strong with strong to damaging winds,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of north and central
Georgia Tuesday through Friday. Heat Index values of 105 degrees
or higher are possible, mainly along and south of an Athens to
Columbus line. Those outdoor should make sure to take precautions
from the heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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