Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

High pressure continues across the CWA this afternoon. Early morning
showers and thunderstorms plus thicker cloud cover have looks to
have hindered early convective development across portions of north
GA. Starting to see some convection pop up outside of the cloud
cover. Do think along and south of Columbus to Macon will see the
best coverage of storms this evening. As usual, few strong to severe
storms will be possible. Strong gusty winds and frequent lightning
strikes will be likely with the stronger storms, with damaging wind
gusts the primary severe weather hazard. Also, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible tomorrow afternoon/evening. Do expect a bit more coverage
than today.

Heat index values should remain below critical thresholds.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Only minor adjustments have been made to the extended forecast,
which will be characterized by an upper level longwave trough. As
the period begins, the trough axis is anticipated to be positioned
over the Mississippi River Valley, and will steadily push eastward
towards the Appalachians late in the week and over the weekend.
Moisture advection will continue across the area ahead of the
trough, allowing for humid conditions to continue during this time
as well. The abundant deep moisture and daytime instability will
lead to high precip chances each day, especially in the afternoon
and evening, through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Shortwave disturbances embedded in the upper level flow will aid
shower and thunderstorm activity, as well. The potential will remain
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms each day continuing through
the weekend.

Model discrepancies are still present with respect to when the
trough axis clears the area, with the latest GFS still producing a
faster solution than the ECMWF -- on Sunday night for the former as
opposed to Monday night for the latter. When this occurs, some drier
mid-level air is possible on the back side of the trough, which
would serve to inhibit rain chances. As a result, afternoon PoPs
have been limited to high-end chance to low-end likely during the
early parts of next week to account for this uncertainty. Ample
humidity across north and central Georgia, combined with high
temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s, will lead to heat
indices in the 100 to 105 range and just outside of advisory
criteria through the weekend.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Early morning convection has mostly dissipated. Do expect
convection to fire up again, mainly for the southern terminal
sites this afternoon. Have added a prob group for tomorrow
afternoon. Winds will remain on the west side, but may go light
and vrb overnight. Light fog is possible, mainly across areas
surrounding ATL.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  94  72  91 /  20  40  40  70
Atlanta         74  94  73  92 /  20  50  50  70
Blairsville     66  88  67  84 /  20  60  50  80
Cartersville    72  94  72  92 /  20  40  40  70
Columbus        74  96  74  93 /  30  50  50  70
Gainesville     71  92  71  89 /  20  40  40  70
Macon           72  96  73  92 /  30  40  40  70
Rome            72  95  72  93 /  20  30  30  70
Peachtree City  72  94  72  91 /  20  40  40  70
Vidalia         74  94  74  91 /  30  60  50  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1036 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected over north and
central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few storms will be
strong to severe with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected across central and
portions of north Georgia this afternoon. Those outside for
prolonged periods should make sure to take precautions from the
heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to occasional thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
through Monday. A few storms will be strong to severe with strong
to damaging winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over portions of north
and central Georgia through Monday. Wednesday will be the hottest
day with spotty heat indices of 105 to 107. Those outside for
prolonged periods should make sure to take precautions from the
heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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