Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Northwesterly flow persists across the region as an upper level
trough shifts east over the Mid Atlantic region and Tropical
Storm Fay continues to push northward along the mid-Atlantic coast
and into New England. Weak impulses continue to traverse the
northwest upper flow across the forecast area. With ample moisture
remaining in place over the area, scattered diurnally driven
convection is ongoing across north and central Georgia, with the
greatest thunderstorm chances expected in the mid to late
afternoon today before diminishing in the evening hours. However,
rain chances are a little lower than the previous several days,
with the highest PoPs in the 30-40 percent range. While widespread
severe weather is not expected, a few storms could become strong,
and capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and
frequent lightning.

Model guidance continues to indicate a drier airmass setting up over
the area beginning this evening and through the remainder of the
period. This drier air will keep rain chances to a minimum on
Saturday and keep mostly clear to clear skies during the overnight
hours, allowing for cooler than normal low temperatures over north
Georgia. In contrast, High temperatures of 1-4 degrees above normal,
in the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia, are
expected this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Dewpoints today are
furthermore in the mid to upper 70s as a result of deep moisture
over the area. As a result, heat indices are climbing into the 100-
105 range across the majority of our area this afternoon. In spite
of above average temperatures again on Saturday, drier conditions
will serve to mitigate heat index concerns.

King

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

At this point, models are suggesting that an MCS is likely over the
SE at some point on Sunday into Monday. Both the SPC and local model
guidance suggest that the severe parameters that support a favorable
environment for such a system have remained in place. Mid level
lapse rates still range from 7 to 7.5 C/KM and strong daytime
heating combined with some decent bulk shear in NW Georgia are
enough to place us in a Marginal Risk for Sunday.

By Tuesday, the ridge in the SW begins to move East and we begin to
flatten out, taking on a more westerly flow. Some strong ridging
brings in abundant dry air aloft which will shut down afternoon
thunderstorms for most of Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. By
Friday though, high pressure settles over us and the flow becomes
zonal. With the moisture return and no steering pulse convection
should start up again and continue into next weekend.

The heat will continue through the rest of the forecast period.
Temperatures in the low to mid 90s climbing into the mid 90s across
the entire CWA by late next week. Widespread heat indices in the low
100s will be likely

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A SCT-BKN cu field at 030-040 is in place across north and central
Georgia and is expected to persist through the afternoon hours
today. Scattered convection has begun to develop and is expected to
increase in coverage in the mid to late afternoon. A TEMPO for TSRA
has been introduced at the metro ATL sites from 19-23Z. Some MVFR
ceilings are also possible where thunderstorms occur. W to NW winds
through the period will start out at 5-8 kts before increasing to 9-
13 kts across the area on Saturday afternoon after 16Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on the timing and coverage of TSRA
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  94  69  95 /  20   0   0  30
Atlanta         71  92  71  92 /  20   0   5  40
Blairsville     65  85  64  85 /  30   0   5  50
Cartersville    69  92  68  92 /  20   0   5  40
Columbus        75  95  72  98 /  10   0   5  40
Gainesville     70  90  69  91 /  20   0   5  40
Macon           74  95  70  96 /  20   0   0  30
Rome            69  92  69  92 /  10   0  10  50
Peachtree City  71  92  69  95 /  20   0   5  40
Vidalia         76  96  73  98 /  30  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1149 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1149 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over north and central Georgia
this afternoon and evening. A few storms will be strong with
gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of central
Georgia, east and south of Macon, Saturday afternoon and early
evening.

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected
Sunday. A few storms will be strong to severe with strong to
damaging winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday through
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
346 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

GAZ020-021-102015-
Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-
346 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE AND EASTERN BARTOW
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lake Arrowhead, or
near Canton...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Canton, Woodstock, Holly Springs, Waleska, Buffington, Hickory Flat,
Union Hill, Lake Arrowhead, Kellogg Creek, Oak Grove, Little River
Landing, George Washington Carver St Pk, Lebanon, Sutallee, Hobgood
Park and Bridgemill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3425 8473 3438 8458 3429 8431 3412 8442
      3408 8463
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 314DEG 14KT 3427 8459

WIND...40MPH

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