Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020/

..Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion for Sunday, June 28...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

While some initial isolated convection has triggered in parts of
north GA, the main focus continues to be on potential for more
organized quasi-linear convective cluster this afternoon into
evening given ridge rider setup. Current wave of storms
propagating across TN has some CAM solution support to make it's
way into portions of north GA. The instability axis is in a
favorable orientation to this wave for a continued track into the
northern CWA as well. The Day 1 SPC Outlook update did also expand
the Marginal Risk into the far north and east accordingly to this
potential. Made some increased pop adjustments to go a bit later
in the north and east.

Some enhanced moisture and possible weak upper impulse influence
keeps some lingering pops across far north GA overnight and then
the upper ridge is progged to dampen some for Monday afternoon so
again have some chance pops in the northern majority and slight
farther south for mostly diurnally driven showers and storms.

Temps look to increase to above climo for Monday with most areas
above 90 and with eastern central GA progged to get into the mid
90s, resultant heat indices could make it in the low 100s. For now
look a few degrees below heat advisory criteria so not planning
on issuing but will need to monitor if future updates trend
warmer.

Baker

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

A cut off low will be spinning to the northeast of the area on
Tuesday as part of a larger Omega block over the CONUS. Viewing
the dynamic tropopause within the models reveals several smaller
cyclonic features that are trapped under the larger ridge within
the Omega block which are providing some lift due to CVA as they
move about. Moving forward, the cut-off low should absorb into the
flow but may leave behind a separate cut-off which may merge with
one of the cyclonic features along the dynamic tropopause just to
the west of our region. The net result of all this will be a very
wet forecast through the long term. PWAT values are forecast to
remain above 1.5 through the entirety of the long term, and with
an impulse to the west of the area, plenty of lift and moisture
should continue to overspread the CWA and provide plenty of
chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Generally went
with the blend, as exact details of how these afternoons and
evenings play out will be best left to mesoscale models.

One benefit of the cut-off and consistent cloud cover and
associated precipitation will be to reduce afternoon high
temperatures somewhat. While highs will be in the upper 80s all
the way to upper 90s in central GA on Tuesday, afternoon high are
expected to come down a few degrees across the state moving
forward. The humidity will not be leaving any time soon, however,
as dewpoints are expected to remain in the 70s throughout the
forecast period.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions are largely expected to prevail through the
forecast period, though brief MVFR is possible at CSG after 11-13z
Monday. While shra/tsra coverage this evening is limited, highest
potential for impacts through 02z is at CSG before coverage is
expected to diminish further. Additional scattered shra/tsra is
possible Monday afternoon, primarily at ATL/AHN area sites. Winds
will remain westerly 3-6kts overnight increasing to around 10 kts
Monday with gusts 15-18kts possible.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on evening convective coverage and morning MVFR potential
at CSG.
High on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  93  73  92 /  30  30  20  60
Atlanta         73  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  60
Blairsville     67  84  67  83 /  40  40  30  60
Cartersville    71  91  71  89 /  30  40  20  60
Columbus        74  93  75  91 /  20  20  10  60
Gainesville     73  89  72  88 /  30  30  20  60
Macon           74  95  74  92 /  20  20  10  50
Rome            72  91  72  89 /  30  40  30  60
Peachtree City  72  91  72  89 /  20  30  20  60
Vidalia         76  96  76  96 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1149 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1149 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon, mainly impacting north Georgia. Strong storms will be
possible with gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning and
heavy rainfall as the primary concerns. Some severe storms could
impact northeast Georgia with damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rain will be possible with any storms that do develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
825 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

GAZ001>005-290100-
Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-Murray GA-
825 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WHITFIELD...CATOOSA...
NORTHERN WALKER...DADE AND NORTHERN MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
EDT...

At 825 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near McDonald to near Red Bank to Jasper...and moving
southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dalton, Chatsworth, Ringgold, Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville,
Chickamauga, Varnell, Lookout Mountain, Eton, Tunnel Hill, Cohutta,
Crandall, Sumac, Blue Spring, Fairview, Beaverdale, Chattanooga
Valley, Hooker and Cloudland Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8484 3481 8467 3474 8556 3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 302DEG 20KT 3506 8497 3506 8534 3504 8561

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
839 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

GAZ078-079-089>091-102-290115-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Stewart GA-Marion GA-Talbot GA-
Muscogee GA-
839 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE...SOUTHEASTERN
HARRIS...NORTHEASTERN STEWART...MARION...SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT AND
MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 838 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Flat Rock to Jamestown/south Fort Benning...and moving
northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Buena Vista, Cusseta, Junction City, Geneva, North Fort Benning,
Upatoi, Putnam, Brantley, Juniper, Vista Terrace, Columbus
Metropolitan Airport, Jamestown/south Fort Benning, Renfroe, Oakland,
Manta, Zellobee, Tazewell, Doyle, Eelbeck/West Fort Benning and
Benning Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3224 8491 3225 8492 3226 8489 3230 8495
      3261 8498 3263 8446 3223 8441 3223 8443
      3222 8443 3222 8461 3223 8462 3223 8465
      3222 8464 3221 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 235DEG 41KT 3255 8488 3226 8487

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

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