Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms popping across
the area as an upper level shortwave moves east through the flow.
The main hazards continue to be being gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and periods of heavy rain with these storms. The storms
are expected to continue through the evening hours then diminish
tonight as we loose daytime heating. As this wave continues to push
NE tonight the better dynamics and instabilities associated with it
move further north as well.  There is still a slight chance these
showers will continue overnight through Monday morning, but any
storms that survive will be isolated in nature and mainly over N GA.
The overall southwesterly flow is expected to continue Monday and
Monday night and should advect additional moisture across the
southeastern states through the middle of the week. This will bring
additional perturbations across the area keeping precip chances
elevated through Wednesday.

With precip chances increasing through the week, Temperatures will
slowly fall from the Mid 80s to Mid 90s down into mainly the 80s to
near 90 by Wednesday. Overnight temperatures are forecast to stay
mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

First portion of the long term looks to be the most active
convectively as models are in good agreement with broad upper trough
NW of the region allowing for persistent SW mean fetch off the Gulf
and resultant ample moisture advection. GFS has high PWATs in 1.5-2
inch range Tues/Wed so will need to watch for isolated flash
flooding threat with any stronger storms. Main moisture axis should
shift southward across the area with a frontal passage later Wed
into Thurs, then models have discrepancies on how far south the
boundary/moisture field advects and how much weak ridging sets up
into the end of the week. While kept higher chance pops to mainly
central GA for Thurs, there's enough diurnal forcing and available
energy to have continued chance pops returning to other portions
of the area by Friday into the weekend despite any ridging.

Temps look to be below normal Tues thru Thurs then rebound back to
near normal Friday into the weekend.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR ceilings and VSBYs with showers and thunderstorms popping up
across the area. When the storms move across the TAF sites we
will see some brief MVFR conditions with periods of heavy rain and
MVFR VSBYs. These storms should diminish shortly after sunset with
VFR conditions returning overnight. Will see another round of
SHRA/TSRA Monday afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Winds
will stay out of the SW at 10kt or less with some variable winds
and gust 10-20kt in and around any stronger convective storms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  90  70  86 /  30  50  30  70
Atlanta         70  88  70  83 /  30  60  40  70
Blairsville     63  80  65  76 /  50  60  50  80
Cartersville    67  87  69  83 /  40  60  50  80
Columbus        71  92  71  89 /  20  40  30  70
Gainesville     68  86  68  81 /  40  60  40  70
Macon           71  92  71  89 /  20  40  20  60
Rome            67  88  69  83 /  40  60  50  80
Peachtree City  68  89  69  84 /  20  50  30  70
Vidalia         73  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1224 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221630-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1224 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

An increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
today. Isolated thunderstorms may become strong to severe this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be gusty
winds...frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain will be possible with any storms that do develop.
A cold front is expected to move through the area on Wednesday
through Friday bringing additional chances for scattered
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

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