Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
335 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Weak upper ridging builds in as the persistent upper low finally
loses its grip on the region. Isolated to scattered, primarily
diurnal, convection still expected. Instability remains marginal
with chances for strong to severe thunderstorm development likewise
limited. Temperatures continue their climb back to around seasonal
normals.

20

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. A pattern change for
the latter half of the weekend is expected with weak wedging in the
upper levels. This should keep much of the area, aside from portions
of northern Georgia, dry Sunday before the approach of the next
system. By Monday we begin to transition into to southwesterly flow
aloft, bringing additional moisture to the area, with the best
chances for any precip across north and western Georgia.

By late Tuesday an approaching front will be located just north of
the area, with the parent low near the Great Lakes region. Moisture
across northern Georgia is expected to increase significantly as the
front nears the forecast area, bringing decent chances for showers
and thunderstorms to northern Georgia on Tuesday. These higher
chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue on
Wednesday as the front moves into the local forecast area,
continuing on Thursday. Although, models start to show some
differences by Wednesday afternoon with the ECMWF lingering the
front somewhere across the forecast area through the rest of the
extended period leading to increased chances for precipitation. The
GFS actually clears the front by Thursday afternoon leaving the area
clear for Friday. Decided to go with a model blend for these days
bringing chance pops to the area on both Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures through the extended forecast are expected to start
slightly above average with high in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with
slightly below average temps in the 80s from mid-week on. Low
temperatures are expected to be slightly above average through the
long term period with lows in the 60s and 70s through the period.

Reaves/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the majority of
the forecast area through the period, outside of isolated to
scattered, mainly afternoon and evening, convection. Will see some
MVFR or lower visibilities in fog-prone areas, however only minimal
impacts possible at any TAF sites. Winds will remain light,
generally 6-7kt or less, and mainly from the southwest through
northwest.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to High on all elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  89  67  91 /  30  20  20  20
Atlanta         68  88  68  89 /  20  20  10  10
Blairsville     59  83  62  83 /  30  20  20  30
Cartersville    64  90  67  91 /  20  20  10  20
Columbus        70  92  70  94 /  20  20  10  10
Gainesville     65  87  67  88 /  30  20  20  20
Macon           68  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  20
Rome            65  90  67  91 /  20  20  10  20
Peachtree City  64  88  67  90 /  20  20  10  10
Vidalia         69  90  71  92 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
533 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-200945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
533 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the area this
afternoon. Brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will
be possible in any stronger storms that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

From Saturday through Tuesday, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. Gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be possible with any
storms that do develop.

A cold front is expected to move through the area on Wednesday and
Thursday bring additional chances for scattered thunderstorms.
Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be possible
in any stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
707 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

GAZ034-035-045>048-192330-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Barrow GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
707 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTON...ROCKDALE...
BARROW...SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB...SOUTHEASTERN GWINNETT AND NORTHERN
NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 706 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from County Line to Lakeview Estates...and moving southeast
at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Conyers, Winder, Snellville, Loganville, Auburn, Dacula, Grayson,
Statham, Lithonia, Walnut Grove, Bethlehem, Between, Carl, Lakeview
Estates, Georgia International Horse Park, Fort Yargo State Park,
Windsor, Harbin, Nicholasville and Big Haynes Creek Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3406 8372 3405 8371 3405 8370 3400 8355
      3355 8404 3378 8413 3407 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 319DEG 9KT 3403 8376 3372 8405

WIND...40MPH