Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1048 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020/

UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast for now. Showers have begun to
develop.

BDL

&&

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is positioned over
central Arkansas. The storm will continue moving northwestward into
the Midwest today, where it will be absorbed by a large upper level
trough approaching from the Great Plains and begin to undergo
extratropical transition. A plume of deep tropical moisture will
spread over the area behind the remnants of Cristobal as it gets
picked up by the trough, leading to an increase in dewpoints and
precipitable water. Another humid and sticky couple of days are
expected through the short term period, with dewpoints reaching as
high as the mid 70s and PWATS ranging from the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Only a couple of isolated showers are ongoing across northeast
Georgia as the short term period begins this morning. As more
tropical moisture spreads northward across the area today,
convection is expected to redevelop across the forecast area during
the daytime today. Numerous thunderstorms are expected across the
area during the afternoon today as diurnally driven convection is
maximized, with likely PoPs forecast across north and central
Georgia during that time. With SBCAPE values ranging from 1000-1500
J/kg this afternoon, but very limited shear, widespread severe
weather is not anticipated at this time. However, a couple of storms
may become strong, capable of producing gusty winds along with
frequent lightning and locally heavy rain. While our average QPF for
this and more so Tues afternoon/evening are only 0.25-0.5" where
rain occurs, due to the high precipitable water values, isolated
locations could see 1-2" of rain where stronger storms occur.
Flooding is not anticipated with these totals, but there could
nonetheless be drainage issues in urban areas.

The upper level trough will lift northeastward towards the Great
Lakes region and a cold front associated with this trough will then
swing through the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday. The incoming cold
front will enhance convective coverage, especially in the afternoon
as instability increases with diurnal heating. Afternoon SBCAPE
values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and modest low-level and deep
layer shear in the vicinity of the front will lead to some potential
for more robust thunderstorm development. As a result, a Marginal
Risk for severe thunderstorm encompasses much of the area on
Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat
with any severe thunderstorms that occur. Deep moisture over the
area will keep the diurnal range of temperatures fairly limited
today and Wednesday, with high temperatures near climatological
normals, mainly in the mid 80s to low 90s, and low temperatures 6-12
degrees above normal, mainly in the low 70s.

King

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to central Georgia
Wednesday night and continue into southeastern Georgia on Thursday.
With some lingering CAPE values in in the 1000 to 2000 J/KG range,
there is the chance of a few strong thunderstorms to form thursday
afternoon as the front stalls. A stationary front will linger along
the coast, maintaining a chance for showers and thunderstorms into
the weekend mostly during the afternoon. After the front moves out,
afternoon storms should be switched off by the dry air in place over
north and central Georgia this weekend and into early next week.

Dewpoints drop significantly behind the front from the 70s into the
50s and low 60s across the CWA on Thursday. Temperatures will be
moderated to near normal by the time the weekend rolls around.
Another front toward the end of the weekend will reinforce the dry
air. Given high pressure in place and northwest flow, precip with
this front is pretty unlikely.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
MVFR-VFR ceilings becoming all VFR but with showers and
thunderstorms increasing and diminishing this evening. Increasing
potential for MVFR then IFR ceilings late tonight and early
Wednesday, eventually improving to VFR with another round of
showers and storms. Surface winds SSW 10 kts or less becoming
light overnight then near 10 kts during the day Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence for winds.
Low to Medium confidence on all other elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  71  86  69 /  70  60  70  30
Atlanta         86  72  86  68 /  70  50  70  30
Blairsville     81  68  80  62 /  70  60  80  50
Cartersville    86  71  88  64 /  70  50  70  30
Columbus        87  72  89  70 /  80  50  70  30
Gainesville     84  71  83  67 /  70  60  80  40
Macon           88  72  88  71 /  70  50  60  30
Rome            87  72  88  64 /  70  50  70  20
Peachtree City  86  71  87  66 /  70  50  70  30
Vidalia         88  73  92  73 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1117 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1117 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into the
evening. Some of these storms could contain heavy rain, gusty
winds and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday as
a cold front moves through. The primary threat will be damaging
winds, but frequent lightning, heavy rain and hail are possible as
well.

Thunderstorms focused in central and southeastern Georgia will be
possible Thursday through Saturday. Frequent lightning, heavy
rain, and gusty winds will be the primary hazards with any storms
that develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
229 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

GAZ085-086-097-098-111>113-091915-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-Montgomery GA-
Laurens GA-
229 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TOOMBS...NORTHEASTERN WHEELER...
SOUTHWESTERN EMANUEL...TREUTLEN...SOUTHERN JOHNSON...MONTGOMERY AND
EASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 229 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Rentz to near Lowery to Ailey to McNatt Falls, moving northeast at
25 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and frequent lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
           leading killers. If you can hear thunder, you are close
           enough to be struck by lightning.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Lyons, Soperton, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, East Dublin,
Glenwood, Adrian, Uvalda, Oak Park, Ailey, Higgston, Rentz, Santa
Claus, Alston, Nunez, Tarrytown, Spann, Ohoopee and New Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

LAT...LON 3214 8220 3193 8222 3192 8225 3194 8228
      3194 8238 3196 8238 3195 8239 3197 8244
      3196 8250 3195 8248 3195 8249 3196 8253
      3241 8307 3244 8297 3248 8300 3268 8274
      3251 8237 3239 8222 3235 8225 3216 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 235DEG 22KT 3243 8297 3233 8275 3217 8256 3197
8246

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

GAZ067-069-079-091915-
Upson GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-
232 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN UPSON...SOUTHEASTERN
MERIWETHER AND TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Olive Branch, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, pea sized hail and frequent lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
           leading killers. If you can hear thunder, you are close
           enough to be struck by lightning.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Talbotton, Manchester, Woodland, Geneva, Sunset Village, Sprewell
Bluff State Park, Pleasant Hill, Big Lazer Creek WMA, Olive Branch
and Po Biddy Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

LAT...LON 3257 8456 3262 8466 3290 8462 3289 8443
      3276 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 204DEG 22KT 3265 8458

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH