Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Through the remainder of the afternoon, the highest chance for
scattered convection will continue to be across central Georgia
where better convergence and moisture are in place. Convergence will
be maximized in these areas where a lingering surface trough and
deeper moisture emanating from the flow around Tropical Storm
Cristobal combine. Instability will be somewhat limited today in
these areas as compared to yesterday given widespread dense cirrus
overspreading from Cristobal. The main threat in any thunderstorms
this afternoon will be locally heavy rainfall given PWs over 1.5"
and slow storm movement. Elsewhere, ridging building in from the
northwest will help suppress convection across north Georgia through
the remainder of the afternoon. Convective coverage will gradually
diminish after sunset.

On Sunday, Cristobal will be making its way toward the Louisiana
coastline and make landfall during the evening hours. For the local
area, upper ridging will further increase across the area through
the day. Convection will thus be further suppressed across north
Georgia as ridging increases. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
largely be focused across central Georgia where PWs will further
increase to around 2" and any influence from far outer bands from
Cristobal will be relegated. Otherwise, isolated convection may
initiate in the heating of the afternoon in the northeast Georgia
mountains. Given widespread clouds in central Georgia, Sunday
afternoon highs will be warmest in north Georgia where temperatures
will reach 90 degrees for some.

RW

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Not much change to previous fcst and main focus remains on the
increased shower and storm potential for Monday through Wed/Thu as
the CWA remains on the far eastern extent of the moisture
advection away from TS Cristobal. The system overall still looks
to make landfall near the LA coast Sunday evening and then track
NNW to north Mon/Tues before phasing with the upper trough across
the central plains and western Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The
elongation of the moisture field sagging southward away from it's
then remnants eventually pushes SEWD across the area as a cold
front Wed/Thu but the long range models have some discrepancies
still on the progression of this feature in our southeast late in
the week so held onto some low end pops accordingly. Overall QPF
should not be an issue as looks to be widespread totals near one
inch through period.

For temps, the diurnal extent looks more limited with
aforementioned moisture as should have mostly below normal highs
and above normal lows most days.

Previous discussion follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Model guidance continues to show good agreement regarding the track
and intensity of Tropical Storm Cristobal, with the forecast from
the past several days remaining on track. As the extended period
begins on Sunday night, Cristobal is forecast to be located in the
northern Gulf of Mexico and moving due north. Little variance exists
in the ensemble guidance, which brings Cristobal to onshore the
central Louisiana coast as a tropical storm late Sunday night/early
Monday morning. The expansion of the storm's wind field while over
the Yucatan suggests that rapid intensification of the storm will be
unlikely as it moves northward through the Gulf. Increasing wind
shear over the northern Gulf this weekend will further limit the
potential for significant intensification.

While direct impacts to north and central Georgia are not expected,
the expansion of the wind field will allow for the advection of deep
moisture into north and central Georgia well away from the center of
the storm. Dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, and
precipitable water values ranging from 1.5" to as high as 2.5" in
portions of central Georgia will build in as this deep moisture
spreads over the forecast area. TS Cristobal will continue to move
northward underneath a large ridge on Monday after landfall. On
Tuesday, it is expected to be absorbed by a large upper level trough
approaching from the west and begin to undergo extratropical
transition. This upper level trough will also become more negatively
tilted as moves westward into the Great Plains. Tropical moisture
surging northward behind the remnants of Cristobal will bring higher
rain chances as a frontal boundary associated with the trough pushes
through the region during middle portions of the week.

Considering the enhanced moisture and adequate surface heating
across north and central Georgia, there is a chance of thunderstorms
across the forecast area each day through the end of the extended
period, with the highest chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Convection is expected to be diurnally driven in nature, with
greater PoPs favored during the afternoon hours each day. Widespread
severe thunderstorms are not currently expected at this time, but it
is nonetheless possible that a few storms each day could become
strong to severe. Deep moisture and increased cloud cover will keep
high temperatures near normal values, mainly in the 80s, and low
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal, mainly in the mid 60s to low
70s.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will persist through this evening with generally
SCT-BKN cumulus at 4-6kft. Potential for a shra/tsra is highest
at MCN/CSG through 00z. While a rogue shra or tsra cannot be ruled
out at ATL/AHN sites, chance is too low to include in TAF.
MVFR/IFR cigs become more likely by 10-12z Sunday with gradual
improvement after 14-16z. Winds will be light at 5 kts or less
through tonight with a general SW direction trend before shifting
to the SE by 10-12z Sunday with speeds 4-8kts Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  30
Atlanta         69  87  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
Blairsville     64  86  66  82 /  10  20  10  20
Cartersville    68  90  71  87 /  10  10  10  30
Columbus        70  85  72  87 /  30  30  20  70
Gainesville     68  87  70  84 /  10  10  10  30
Macon           69  84  71  86 /  30  30  20  50
Rome            69  92  70  88 /  10   5  10  30
Peachtree City  67  86  70  86 /  20  10  10  40
Vidalia         71  84  72  89 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....King/Baker
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1135 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1135 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the forecast area
today into tonight, with the highest chances across central
Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.
Lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds will be possible with any
storms that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Thunderstorms are expected each day through Friday. Frequent
lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds are all possible with any
storms that develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
401 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

GAZ085-086-097-098-062030-
Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
401 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EMANUEL...TREUTLEN...SOUTHEASTERN
JOHNSON AND LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Union to near Rebie...and moving northeast at 5
mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain...up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Swainsboro, Soperton, East Dublin, Twin City, Adrian, Dexter,
Dudley, Stillmore, Cadwell, Oak Park, Rentz, Garfield, Nunez,
Lothair, Covena, Modoc, Canoochee, Rockledge and Norristown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3248 8218
      3243 8219 3242 8220 3230 8271 3231 8272
      3230 8274 3223 8303 3263 8314 3270 8210
      3266 8208 3260 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 216DEG 6KT 3251 8205 3248 8312

WIND...40MPH

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