Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion for Friday, June 5th...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Scattered convection has erupted across much of the area today,
with the highest coverage generally along and south of I-20. This
area of higher coverage is courtesy of a weak surface trough
situated across the area while an associated shortwave is also
helping to enhance coverage. Meanwhile, CAPE values have increased
as high as 2000-3000 J/kg which has provided fuel for showers and
thunderstorms. This activity will propagate along outflow
boundaries with additional convection developing along these
boundaries through this evening. There will be a risk for
localized strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall, though widespread
severe concerns are not expected. Coverage and intensity will
gradually diminish after sunset as instability wanes.

On Saturday, the trough axis will settle farther southward,
focusing the better chance for scattered convection across central
Georgia during the afternoon and evening as instability
increases. Saturday afternoon will be on the hot side across north
Georgia where temperatures will likely reach the lower 90s for
some. While the better convective coverage will be across central
Georgia, isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
in north Georgia during the afternoon and evening before
diminishing after sunset. Overnight lows will remain several
degrees above normal, largely in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

RW

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Forecast over the past several days for TS Cristobal remains on
track. Models continue to show very little variance in the overall
track and timing of the storm up to landfall, bringing the storm
onto the LA coastline late Sunday night/early Monday morning as a
tropical storm. The wind field has broadened significantly over
the past 24 hours as the storm has been on land, which should help
limit the overall ability of the storm to undergo any kind of
rapid intensification, especially given increasing shear that will
be impacting it as it moves north. Given the current forecast
track, not expecting much in the way of direct impacts over the
CWA from this storm. However, indirect impacts in the form of
increased moisture and rainfall are likely to occur through next
week.

TS Cristobal slides underneath a large ridge on Sunday and Monday
before and after landfall and then begins to merge and undergo
extratropical transition on Tuesday as it merges with a large
trough out west that begins to become more negatively tilted as
moves out of the four corners into the great plains. Euro and GFS
differ on strength of an embedded shortwave within this that
merges with the transitioning system. Euro is much stronger, which
drives a stronger front and more moisture into the area through
the end of the forecast period when compared with the GFS. No
matter what, expecting to see a lot of moisture over our area next
week, with daily opportunities for thunderstorms given decent
instability. Sticking with the model blends once again given
uncertainty around when and where storms may form.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible at TAF
sites through 00z before coverage begins to diminish. Outside of
shra/tsra, generally VFR cigs are expected with reductions in
cigs/vsbys in and near convection. While VFR cigs are generally
expected to prevail overnight, patchy fog and some potential for
patchy low clouds cannot be ruled out. Winds will remain W at
5-10kts through the evening. Winds will become light and vrb by
Saturday morning and into the day Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  90  69  88 /  50  30  10  10
Atlanta         70  88  69  87 /  40  30  20  10
Blairsville     63  87  64  86 /  40  30  20  20
Cartersville    67  92  69  90 /  30  20  20   5
Columbus        71  89  70  86 /  40  40  20  30
Gainesville     68  89  69  88 /  40  30  20  10
Macon           71  87  69  86 /  40  40  20  20
Rome            68  92  69  92 /  30  20  10   5
Peachtree City  68  88  68  87 /  40  30  20  10
Vidalia         73  88  71  87 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
113 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061715-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
113 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the
forecast area today into tonight. An isolated strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out. Lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds
will be possible with any storms which do form.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Thunderstorms are expected each day through Thursday.

Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds will be the
primary hazards with any storms which do form.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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