Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
140 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

.Update...
Have tweaked pops across the far north based on radar. Otherwise
no changes.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Current radar loop shows showers beginning to increase across the
region as a weak shortwave begins to pushes into the state from the
west. The wedge is still in place across North and Central GA but it
is weakening and will continue to erode as the stalled frontal
boundary over central GA lifts slowly north as a warm front today.
This front lifting will act as a catalyst for additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the area today. By this afternoon, the
main area to monitor will be northern Georgia as the aforementioned
shortwave and daytime heating will allow for increased precip
chances through the evening hours. With increasing instability,
shear, steepening lapse rates, ample moisture, and increased lift
from the shortwave, some strong to severe storms will be possible.
This also goes very well with SPCs placement of the Marginal risk
area across north and eastern/central portions of the state today.
The main threats will be gusty winds and hail, although a brief
tornado can't be ruled out. Once the wave moves NE of the area
tonight, things calm down some for Saturdays forecast. Still keeping
in a slight chance of afternoon Showers and Thunderstorms but
without the deep layer moisture, instability, and a lifting
mechanism, only expecting isolated general storms through Sat
evening.

Temps will also be on the rise with highs today expected into the
upper 70s to lower 90s and highs Sat mainly in the 80s and 90s. Low
temps tonight will dip into the 60s across the state.

01

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Pattern in the long term period somewhat static through Thurs as
eastern CONUS upper ridge builds north. Some consensus that upper
low will cutoff over the western Atlantic and swing west
underneath upper ridge again after Tuesday. Was hoping we were
done with that stupid high-over-low weathermans-woe pattern we are
just getting out of. Difference this time around is another deep
cutoff low progged by most medium range models starting Tuesday
over the southern plains amplifying/narrowing upper ridging over
the eastern CONUS. It is actually common to get blocked patterns
like this in May before westerlies retreat further north.

Only thing to keep weather interesting is weak CAD developing
Sunday then building in from the east stronger thru the week. As
CAD front moves in late Sunday and Monday, should see decent
chances for convection with deeper moisture in spite of upper
ridging and weak flow aloft. Small chances for isolated diurnal
convection after Monday as boundary washes out and a little
subsidence develops ahead periphery of upper low over the
southern plains and mid-south. Slightly above normal temps thru
the period.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR expected through the afternoon. This afternoon/evening chances
for SHRA/TSRA increase again after about 20Z through the early
overnight hours, although confidence is low on best timing/coverage.
Southwest winds this afternoon with occasional gusts...diminishing
after 00z. Some scattered mvfr possible 10z to 14z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium on SHRA/TSRA coverage.
Confidence medium to high on all other elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  64  88  67 /  50  30  30  10
Atlanta         84  66  87  68 /  50  20  30  10
Blairsville     73  60  82  62 /  60  40  40  10
Cartersville    83  64  87  65 /  50  20  30  10
Columbus        89  68  92  69 /  40  30  20  10
Gainesville     78  64  85  67 /  50  30  30  10
Macon           90  66  91  69 /  30  30  20  10
Rome            82  64  87  65 /  60  30  30  10
Peachtree City  86  65  88  66 /  40  20  30  10
Vidalia         93  69  92  71 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1145 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1145 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms, some strong, are likely though this
evening, mainly over north Georgia. Lightning, small hail, brief
heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Thunderstorms are possible again Saturday through Thursday with the
highest chances on Sunday and Monday. Some storms could be strong on
Sunday and Monday with lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             1 N CUMMING             34.22N  84.14W
05/22/2020  E1.75 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
            1 MILE NORTH OF CUMMING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000675

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             2 S DREW                34.19N  84.21W
05/22/2020  E1.25 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   PUBLIC

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL THE SIZE OF QUATERS TO
            HALF-DOLLARS NEAR THE POLO GOLF AND COUNTRY CLUB.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000676

20

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

GAZ027-038-221915-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-
300 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN OGLETHORPE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Watson Mill Bridge
State Park, or 10 miles southeast of Danielsville...moving east at 30
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Comer, Carlton, Watson Mill Bridge State Park, Point Peter and Paoli.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3395 8310 3411 8317 3414 8306 3412 8305
      3411 8303 3410 8304 3408 8300 3405 8299
      3403 8293 3401 8294 3401 8291 3398 8286
      3399 8284 3398 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 258DEG 27KT 3405 8307

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH