Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Closed upper low continues to push through the Missouri Valley and
into the Tennessee Valley at this hour. Although diffluence ahead
of this system has created the lift for some light shower,
instability has been the limiting factor thus far for more robust
activity. CAPE has been largely on the order of 500 J/KG to 1000
J/KG thus far but RAP indicates within the next 6 hours a marked
increase with in excess of 2000 J/KG by late this afternoon into
the evening hours for far North GA. Will therefore not jump on any
big changes to the forecast as activity should fill in nicely for
aforementioned areas along with the threat for severe storms.
Hail still the primary threat given cold mid levels but
microbursts and to a lesser extent, tornadoes remain a
possibility with this activity through this evening.

Upper low to actually move north of the area tonight but appendage
of vort max will bring additional lift to far north GA. Although
instability will have subsided by then, still enough moisture and
lift to warrant isolated to low end chance shower chances. Cooler
behind this system and despite the cloud cover, still some lower
to mid 40s expected for far NW GA.

Clearing conditions for Sunday bu the drier and much windier
conditions will pose their own issues. Likely that we will need a
wind advisory and a Fire Danger Statement for conditions that
develop by tomorrow afternoon. Will allow mid shift to refine and
issue both of these.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

The long term period picks up on Monday morning with surface high
pressure building across the local forecast area. With high pressure
in place, expecting to have calm and dry weather on Monday with an
increase in cloud cover for Tuesday ahead of the next low pressure
system.

By early Wednesday a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the
area bringing southwesterly flow aloft and moisture to the area. The
associated surface low is expected to be centered north of Georgia
near the lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday before the low lifts
to the northeast. Models have come into better agreement with this
system although there are still some small discrepancies in low
placement and strength. Regardless, a front is expected to move
through the area on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Rainfall totals for this system around around a quarter inch to an
inch with the highest totals across northern Georgia and the higher
elevations in the northeast. By late Wednesday, the GFS is showing
the front clearing the area in the evening bringing some wrap around
precipitation to far north Georgia. On the other hand, the ECMWF
progresses more slowly, clearing the front on Thursday afternoon
with wrap around precip across far north Georgia late Thursday into
early Friday. Decided to go with a blend for pops in this period
clearing the precipitation by Thursday afternoon. After this system
passes, upper level and surface level ridge is expected to build
into the area, keeping forecast relatively quiet through the end of
the long term.

Temperatures through the extended will generally be around average
with highs generally in the 60s and 70s to lower 80s across the
area, with low temps in the 40s and 50s.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE...

VFR forecast to continue for all sites with just some mid and high
level BKN cigs to be concerned with. Anticipate most if not all of
the TSRA to remain north of the terminals today with RYY seeing
the best chance. Winds swinging to both sides of south at ATL
currently but should settle on the SW side and increase in gusts
for through the afternoon and much of the evening.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  67  44  74 /  20   5   5   5
Atlanta         53  66  46  71 /  20  10  10   5
Blairsville     47  55  39  66 /  50  40  40   5
Cartersville    50  62  41  71 /  30  20  10   5
Columbus        54  74  48  76 /   5   0   5   5
Gainesville     53  61  45  71 /  40  10  10   5
Macon           54  74  46  76 /   5   0   5   5
Rome            50  62  42  71 /  30  20  10   5
Peachtree City  51  68  43  73 /  10   5   5   5
Vidalia         58  77  51  76 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
229 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
229 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in north
Georgia this afternoon and evening. While widespread severe
thunderstorms are not expected, a few storms could produce large
hail and strong, gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Thunderstorms will be again possible on Wednesday as a cold front
traverses the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
405 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

GAZ001>003-252030-
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
405 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CATOOSA...
NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND NORTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

At 405 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Morganville, or near
Trenton...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville, Lookout Mountain, Fairview,
Lakeview, Chattanooga  Valley, New England, Morganville, Hooker and
Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3484 8550 3493 8556 3498 8553 3499 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 237DEG 40KT 3493 8545

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH