Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
750 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020/

..Another Significant Severe Event Anticipated Today...

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Would definitely classify the current state as the calm before the
storm across the area as high pressure remains in control over the
Carolinas with influence over the local area resulting in a
continued dry northerly flow. Dewpoints hardly of the severe variety
thus far with upper 30s and lower 40s the rule. All this points to a
scenario in which area will be on the edge of surging moisture and
energy but also means demarcation of these 2 zones later today will
be an area primed for severe storms including tornadoes and damaging
winds.

Initially, it will be just an isentropic lift scenario with S to SW
flow of 50 kts at 5k ft stream over the relatively cold dome
mentioned above. All CAPE will be of the elevated variety but still
sufficient for some thunder for Central portions. Things will change
very quickly however through the early afternoon hours with a very
sharp gradient of energy developing. Although surface based CAPE
will remain near zero all the way down to the southern metro, we
will see values in excess of 2000 J/KG approaching our far SW zones.
The STP will be increasing to around 5 during this time as well
allowing for a start to the tornado threat as well as damaging
winds.

Further north of this, up to I20, the pure dynamics of this system
may be enough to overcome the relative lack of instability. Shear
may prove to be too high the further north you go as updrafts will
simply not be able to support. However, damaging winds will remain a
likely component for the Atlanta metro and other areas along the I20
corridor.

Main event looks to be along the front later in the evening for
Central GA as instability and corresponding STP surges northward
briefly. Although overall geographic footprint of this system may be
smaller than last system, this one is not to be taken lightly by any
means as tornadoes look likely along and south of a Columbus to
Macon line. In addition, a few strong and long track tornadoes will
be possible given sigtor ramping up during this timeframe and
updraft helicities represented by most of the hi res guidance. Rapidly
improving conditions for late Sunday night into Monday although
winds will be gusty in cooler NW flow.

Deese

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Tuesday will be dry and somewhat windy favoring N GA with some areas
close to wind advisory criteria(20 mph sustained).

The next system of concern will be on Thursday as surface low pressure
and associated short wave approach the area. There looks to be
a sharp gradient of instability as the warm front gets stuck over
central GA. This system will need to be monitored for severe weather
potential as we get closer. Either way, another period of wet weather
can be expected starting Wednesday night and maximizing Thursday
into Thursdsay night with just small chances for lingering light showers
briefly on Friday.

Models are inconsistent with another system approaching on Saturday
and precip currently favoring n GA is very much a compromise.

BDL

HYDROLOGY...
The Flash Flood watch will be continued due to the potential
for heavy rainfall over central and portions of n GA. 2 to 5 inches
of rain can be expected with locally higher amounts. Some of the rain
could occur in a short period of time. Heavy rainfall will likely lead
to localized flooding. Flooding of low-lying areas, creeks and streams
can be expected with additional larger river rises anticipated as well,
well after the rain ends.

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A challenging forecast to say the least with
multiple waves of SHRA and TSRA likely across the terminals today.
Anticipate the first of these to accompany lowering cigs this
morning with MVFR developing. Will be some TSRA with this first
wave for sure and will include in TEMPO group. Will handle most
of the TSRA in Prob30 group and utilize 2 Prob30 groups for MCN
and CSG to account for severe line of storms late this evening and
potential gusts to 45kts. If anything, cigs go down even further
later Sun evening as some LIFR potential will accompany the final
wave of SHRA/TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA timing.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  55  72  49 /  90 100  70   0
Atlanta         63  56  70  50 / 100 100  60   0
Blairsville     59  49  65  44 /  80 100  70   0
Cartersville    62  53  70  47 / 100 100  60   0
Columbus        71  61  76  51 / 100 100  50   0
Gainesville     58  53  71  48 /  90 100  70   0
Macon           68  60  76  51 / 100  90  60   0
Rome            62  53  71  47 /  90 100  60   0
Peachtree City  65  57  72  48 / 100 100  60   0
Vidalia         73  65  77  56 / 100  90  70   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Monday
morning for the following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...
Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Chattahoochee...Clarke...Clayton...
Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...
Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...
Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...
Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...
Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...
Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
440 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
440 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across
central and portions of north Georgia this afternoon and tonight.
The greatest threat can be expected along and south of I-20 with
Central Georgia most favored for strong, long-track tornadoes
along with damaging winds and large hail.

A flash flood watch is in effect for central and portions
of north Georgia. Heavy rain across the area will likely lead to
localized flooding. Refer to the Flash flood watch / ATLFFAFFC /
for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Strong thunderstorms will be possible over portions of east and
central Georgia early Monday.

Another round of potentially strong thunderstorms is expected
across north and central Georgia on Thursday and Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for this afternoon and tonight
across central and portions of north Georgia, along and south of I-20.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1002 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

GAZ104>106-191430-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
1002 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRISP...SOUTHWESTERN
DOOLY AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM EDT...

At 1001 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Croxton Crossroads,
or 9 miles southwest of Americus...moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Americus, Cordele, Plains, Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, Sumter,
Lamar, Georgia Veterans Memorial St Pk, Croxton Crossroads, New Era,
Flint River Wma, Huntington, Drayton, Maddox, Methvins and Richwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3190 8437 3192 8438 3197 8444 3204 8444
      3204 8443 3206 8443 3216 8394 3202 8377
      3191 8387 3192 8434 3188 8434 3188 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1401Z 261DEG 43KT 3197 8433

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH