Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
102 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1133 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020/

UPDATE...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the northern tier
of the forecast area through 10z in anticipation of a fast-moving
line of thunderstorms coming together across Middle Tennessee.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat associated with
this convective line with a likely arrival time into northwest
Georgia by 07-08z. Some weakening is expected as the convection
heads into the Atlanta metro through 12z, though a risk for strong
wind gusts will remain.

RW

&&

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Active and pretty complex fcst on tap for the rest of today through
tonight and into Thursday morning as what looks to be two rounds of
strong to severe storms. The first of which is mainly influenced by
a weak upper wave interacting with a moderately unstable airmass
(many areas across the southern half of the CWA even with dewpoints
currently in the mid to upper 60s and SBCAPE ranging from 2000-2500
J/kg). Any breaks in the stratocu could rapidly destabilize. CAMs
are in general consensus of the first area of stronger convection
initiating after 20z just south/west of the Atlanta Metro and then
advecting southward through central GA before exiting by 03z this
evening. Thermal profiles indicating some steep low/mid level lapse
rates along with decent deep layer bulk shear so main threats with
stronger storms look to be damaging wind and large hail. Cannot rule
out a brief tornado.

The second round looks to be overnight with a more amplified upper
shortwave and attendant sfc cold front bringing a ling of strong to
severe storms quickly into the northern CWA after 06z, then making
it into central GA by 10/11z as it weakens being quickly separated
from the upper forcing/moisture. Given some stronger low level
helicity along with continued strong deep layer shear, the main
threats with this round will be damaging winds and possible brief
tornadoes.

As if this isn't enough going on, the enhanced NW gradient winds
behind the front look to reach Wind Advisory criteria Thursday so
have issued one accordingly across the northern majority of the CWA
from 12z Thursday to 00z Friday.

Baker

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

No significant changes have been to the long term. Models have come
more in line overall...but still struggle some with the late weekend
short wave. The long term begins dry on Friday. If drying takes
place as forecast...relative humidity values could drop into the mid
20s Friday afternoon. Depending on fuels and timing...this could be
a potential Fire Danger Day. The next significant short wave will be
tracking across the southwest states late Saturday into
Sunday...then moving northeast over the OH Valley on Monday.  This
looks like a stronger system as we return to a moist southwest flow
ahead of it. With increasing shear...instability...and high dew
points...Severe thunderstorms are a possibility late Saturday night
into Sunday night. QPF totals for the Saturday night through Monday
period could be two to three inches over much of the area...locally
higher. GFS and ECMWF push this short wave east of us during the day
Monday. Afterward it looks like another weaker short wave will
affect us for Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pops have been continued
into Wednesday.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
A mixed bag of weather expected this morning due to a line
of showers and thunderstorms moving into n GA and weakening as
they move south. Potential for MVFR ceilings and even some
brief IFR ceilings along with brief reduced vsbys due to the
showers/storms. Any lower conditions and ceilings improving
quickly later this morning. Surface winds WSW 10 kts or less to
start, increasing to WNW 12-18 kts with gusts 22-30 kts later
this morning.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to medium confidence for ceilings, vsbys and weather.
High confidence for winds.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  48  65  41 /  30   5   5   5
Atlanta         75  48  62  42 /  30   5   0   5
Blairsville     65  38  55  35 /  10   5   0   5
Cartersville    73  44  61  38 /  20   5   0   5
Columbus        82  54  69  45 /  30  10   5   5
Gainesville     73  46  61  40 /  20   5   0   5
Macon           83  52  68  43 /  30  10   5   5
Rome            72  44  61  38 /  20   5   0   5
Peachtree City  78  48  64  41 /  30  10   5   5
Vidalia         86  56  71  46 /  30  10   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...
Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Heard...
Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Jones...Lumpkin...
Madison...Morgan...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...
South Fulton...Spalding...Taliaferro...Towns...Union...Walker...
Walton...Warren...Washington...White...Whitfield...Wilkes...
Wilkinson.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
the following zones: Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...Dawson...
Fannin...Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...Murray...Pickens...Towns...
Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
903 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
903 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across north Georgia late
tonight into early Thursday morning.

A line of storms is expected to move into northern Georgia after
3 AM and quickly move southward. This line will have the
potential to produce strong straight-line winds and a weak and
short-lived tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Early Thursday will see a decaying line of storms in northern
Georgia with a diminishing threat for strong straight-line winds
and a weak, spin-up tornado or two. The threat for any severe
weather is expected to end by mid-morning.

A stronger storm system is expected across the forecast area on
Sunday and Sunday night. Severe thunderstorms may be possible with
this system, as well as a risk of flash flooding with two to three
and a half inches of rain forecast over a thirty-six hour period,
and locally higher amounts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

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