Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Current Radar loop shows the line of showers and thunderstorms
moving across Alabama and should begin pushing into NW GA by 3-4pm.
Just ahead of this line of storms is strong Southwesterly warm air
advection and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s across GA. The
models are also showing Perceptible waters in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch
range. A strong low-level jet at 850 mb is contributing to very
strong low-level shear (40-50 kts) and 0-1 km helicity values of 200-
400 m2/s2. Southerly 0-6 km Bulk shear of 60-70 kts is also occurring
and is oriented nearly parallel to the system. I said all this to
say these values are abnormally high for this time of year and the
atmosphere is primed for some severe storms to move in this
afternoon/evening.

The main surface low is centered right along the AR/TN/MS border and
is still expected to move rapidly NE into the eastern Great Lake
states by 12z Sun. The cold front moves into NW GA this evening with
the line of severe storms just ahead of it. Showers have already
developed across the state but the severe storms will make their way
into NW GA by 3-4pm. This line is expected to continue pushing SE
through tonight. It should sweep through the Metro ATL area between 5-
9pm and through MCN and CSG between 6-10pm. Damaging wind gusts and
brief tornadoes embedded within the line will be the primary severe
weather hazards. The highest likelihood of severe weather is
expected in the western portion of the forecast area in the closest
vicinity to the low-level jet, where shear values will be the
greatest.

A brief period of cool, rain-free conditions can be expected on
Sunday morning across north Georgia after the passage of the cold
front to the south and east. However, this respite will be short-
lived as the front will stall across south Georgia as it orients
itself parallel to the southwesterly flow aloft and begin to retreat
back to the north as a warm front during the daytime Sunday.
Isentropic lift to the north of the frontal boundary will lead to
scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms gradually
developing northward through the area during the afternoon hours on
Sunday and continuing through Monday.

01

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Unsettled weather will persist for much of the long term portion of
the forecast. No major changes were needed.

Old frontal boundary remains stalled across portions of the CWA into
the middle of next week. This boundary will serve to focus rounds of
rainfall, some heavy at times. Currently, the axis if heaviest
rainfall is mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor and
this has some run to run consistency. On average, one to three
inches of rainfall is progged, but some locally higher amounts are
possible in the higher elevations of NE GA.

A cold front is on track to move through later on Wednesday, with
high pressure briefly building back in for Thursday into early
Friday.

The other story (besides the additional rains) will be the
temperatures. Values around 20 degrees above normal are likely for
the first half of the week.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Line of strong to severe SHRA/TSRA currently moving across the
area. Will impact AHN/MCN over the next couple of hours. Reduced
vsbys will be possible in the line down to a mile or less. Gusty
winds in the 25-30kt range will continue behind the line with
gusts 30-45kts possible with the line. Wind gusts should diminish
overnight outside of the line of storms. IFR/MVFR cigs should
improve to MVFR/VFR later in the overnight hours although a sct
IFR/MVFR deck may linger through the overnight. Behind the line,
winds have shifted WSW/SW but will shift W overnight before
shifting NW around daybreak. Winds should shift back S/SE during
the day on Sunday. Wind speeds should be around 3-8kts Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on all elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  67  56  70 / 100  40  70  60
Atlanta         50  66  57  70 / 100  30  70  60
Blairsville     45  65  48  64 / 100  10  60  70
Cartersville    47  65  52  68 / 100  10  60  60
Columbus        52  69  60  75 / 100  40  70  60
Gainesville     49  66  53  67 / 100  20  70  60
Macon           56  67  59  76 /  90  50  60  50
Rome            46  64  50  67 /  90   5  50  60
Peachtree City  49  67  56  72 / 100  40  70  60
Vidalia         64  74  63  79 /  80  60  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until midnight EST tonight for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bleckley...Clarke...Dodge...Emanuel...
Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Jefferson...Johnson...Laurens...
Madison...Montgomery...Morgan...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Pulaski...
Putnam...Taliaferro...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Warren...Washington...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...
Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...
Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North
Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Tornado Watch until 9 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Banks...Barrow...Bibb...Butts...Chattahoochee...Clayton...
Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dawson...DeKalb...Dooly...Fayette...
Forsyth...Gwinnett...Hall...Harris...Henry...Houston...Jackson...
Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Peach...Pike...
Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walton...
Webster...White.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...Dawson...Fannin...Floyd...
Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...Murray...Pickens...Towns...Union...
Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Reaves

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
731 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130045-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
731 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
portions of central Georgia through the rest of this evening. Some
storms may be strong to severe across portions of eastern and
central Georgia. The primary storm threats continue to be damaging
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along with the potential for a few
tornadoes.

In addition, the wind advisory remains in effect through 10 PM
this evening as strong winds are expected to continue. Strong wind
gusts especially in the higher elevations of north Georgia could
bring down trees and powerlines. The High Wind Warning is still
in effect for parts of north Georgia, generally north of a Rome to
Jasper line until 10 PM this evening.

As the storms move through later today and tonight, periods of heavy
rain could result in localized flooding. The severe threat should
end west to east this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will persist over central Georgia on
Sunday, developing again across the entire area by Monday. Heavy
rainfall could again lead to flooding concerns as soils will be
saturated from previous rains. Showers and thunderstorms will
persist into Friday with possibly a brief break on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should continue to submit reports of severe weather through
the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

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