Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
327 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

As the short term period begins, a surface low pressure system
continues to move northeastward along the Atlantic Coast. Direct
impacts from the low are not anticipated, although much of the
southeastern CONUS remains in a northwesterly flow pattern behind
this low. Several weak impulses will traverse the northwest flow
aloft across the forecast area. Models remain consistent showing
upper level impulses moving across western portions of the forecast
area both this afternoon and again on Friday. With deep moisture in
place, diurnally driven convection will be the rule across the area
for the remainder of the day today and Friday, with the highest PoPs
in the afternoon each day.

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across north and central
Georgia, and are expected to continue through the evening hours
before diminishing tonight. A few storms could become strong, and
capable of producing gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and frequent
lightning. With ample moisture and weak steering flow, isolated
flash flooding concerns are furthermore possible in the event of any
merging cells or back building strong storms. Scattered
thunderstorms are once again going to develop across the area on
Friday afternoon. Model guidance is becoming more consistently
showing a drier profile in far north Georgia by Friday afternoon as
the surface low continues to move away from the area and continued
northwesterly winds filter in. PoPs have been trended down on Friday
afternoon, as a result.

Temperatures are expected to run near climatological normals today
and 1-4 degrees above on Friday. Deep moisture will moreover
contribute to dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. As a result, heat
indices in the 95-100 range are ongoing in central Georgia this
afternoon, and are likely to be in the 100-105 range across the
majority of our area on Friday.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The big story for the weekend will be the heat and humidity.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly above climatological normal
as the extended period kicks off on Saturday. Temps will range from
the low to mid 90s across the CWA. Dewpoints in the low 70s will
give us the potential for 100+ degree heat indices for the rest of
the week, especially across south and central Georgia.

Strong ridging in the desert SW will continue the NW flow pattern
over the SE through the weekend. Models are suggesting that an MCS
is likely over the southern Mississippi river valley at some point on
Sunday into Monday. The question of whether or not this system
sweeps into our area still remains, but the severe parameters that
support a favorable environment for such a system continue. Mid
level lapse rates still range from 7 to 7.5 C/KM and strong daytime
heating combined with some decent bulk shear in NW Georgia have been
persistent in each of the last few model runs.

By Tuesday, the ridge in the SW begins to move East and we begin to
flatten out a little, taking on a more westerly flow. This keeps
chance for afternoon thunderstorms going and does little to relieve
the heat, but it does take us out of NW flow subsequently reducing
the risk for another MCS.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Primarily VFR conditions are ongoing across the area and are
expected to continue at all TAF sites through the period. There is a
chance of scattered convection during the mid to late afternoon
across north and central Georgia, enough to warrant a TEMPO group
for TSRA from 20-24Z. Some MVFR ceilings are also possible where
TSRA occurs. Winds will be predominantly W to NW at 5 kts or less
through the period.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  72  93 /  20  40  30  20
Atlanta         73  91  73  90 /  40  40  30  20
Blairsville     67  85  66  83 /  30  50  30  20
Cartersville    71  91  70  91 /  30  40  30  20
Columbus        74  93  75  96 /  30  40  20  20
Gainesville     71  90  71  89 /  20  50  30  20
Macon           73  93  73  94 /  30  40  30  30
Rome            72  92  71  91 /  20  40  30  20
Peachtree City  72  91  72  92 /  30  40  30  20
Vidalia         75  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1145 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1145 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
few strong storms are possible with gusty winds, locally heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning. An isolated severe thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out with damaging winds and some hail in addition to
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Friday
and Saturday with gusty winds, locally heavy rain and frequent
lightning. Thunderstorms late Saturday and Sunday could be strong to
severe with very heavy rainfall, damaging winds and frequent
lightning. Only isolated thunderstorms are expected Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
526 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

GAZ014-022-092200-
Dawson GA-Forsyth GA-
526 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAWSON AND NORTHWESTERN
FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 526 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hightower, or near
Cumming...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cumming, Matt, Drew, Silver City, Ducktown, Coal Mountain and
Hightower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3431 8400 3420 8411 3414 8426 3433 8426
      3439 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 318DEG 17KT 3429 8419

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
550 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

GAZ032-033-043-044-092215-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-South Fulton GA-
550 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN COBB AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 550 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Six Flags Over
Georgia, or 7 miles west of Atlanta...moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Smyrna, East Point, College Park, Austell, Grant Park-Zoo
Atlanta, Midtown, Lithia Springs, Sweetwater Creek State Park, West
End, Virginia Highland, Vinings, Sweet Auburn, Turner Field, Piedmont
Park, Bankhead, Six Flags Over Georgia, Cascade Heights, Bolton and
Sandtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3389 8448 3380 8435 3375 8435 3366 8444
      3365 8462 3380 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 331DEG 8KT 3378 8451

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
604 PM EDT THU JUL 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             3 N ELLIJAY             34.74N  84.49W
07/09/2020  E1.25 INCH       GILMER             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL A LITTLE LARGER THAN QUARTERS FALLING NORTH OF
            ELLIJAY, ALONG BMW DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000872

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
613 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

GAZ022-033-034-092245-
North Fulton GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
613 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...SOUTHWESTERN
FORSYTH AND NORTHWESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Brookwood, or 10
miles southwest of Cumming. Multiple strong storms are around this
area. The storms are drifting southeast at less than 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cumming, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Milton,
Duluth, Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Norcross, Berkeley Lake,
Brookwood, Mechanicsville and Drew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3422 8420 3405 8396 3390 8424 3392 8426
      3394 8427 3395 8427 3396 8428 3410 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 331DEG 4KT 3408 8423

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
620 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

GAZ032-033-043-044-092245-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-South Fulton GA-
620 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN COBB AND PARTS OF SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

At 620 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Six Flags Over
Georgia, or 8 miles west of Atlanta. This storm was nearly
stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Smyrna, East Point, Midtown, West End, Vinings, Sweet
Auburn, Turner Field, Piedmont Park, Bankhead, Six Flags Over
Georgia, Cascade Heights, Lakewood Park, Bolton, Sandtown, Atlantic
Station, Mableton and Chastain Memorial Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3381 8462 3388 8448 3388 8435 3385 8435
      3368 8439 3367 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 331DEG 4KT 3378 8453

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

GAZ033-034-092315-
North Fulton GA-Gwinnett GA-
651 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON AND NORTHWESTERN
GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Berkeley Lake, or 10
miles west of Lawrenceville...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lawrenceville, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Duluth, Suwanee,
Lilburn, Norcross, Berkeley Lake, Tucker and Mechanicsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3403 8395 3390 8402 3386 8419 3389 8422
      3399 8430 3407 8416 3406 8415 3406 8413
      3404 8412 3404 8410 3405 8411 3405 8410
      3407 8412 3408 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 325DEG 15KT 3399 8416

WIND...50MPH