Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
An area of more organized convection associated with a weak upper
wave will be pushing across north GA this afternoon into evening.
While the higher SBCAPE axis is more confined to the west of the
CWA, there is enough marginal instability currently around 2500 J/kg
that could allow for some strong storms and cannot rule out severe,
but overall shear params are not impressive.

Enhanced moisture and possible weak impulses in the mostly broad
upper flow will allow for some lingering pops in the northeast
through tonight. Sunday has some amplified upper ridging into the
west and south portions of the CWA but enough diurnal heating will
still allow for at least slight pops by the afternoon and continued
higher chance pops in the far north with other possible upper wave
influence.

Temps should stay within a few degrees of climo norms through
period.

Baker

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
An overall wet week still looks in the cards, especially after
Monday.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As we transition into next week, models are initially drier than
previous runs in response to a developing mid level ridge across
the area. In addition, instability is not all that high as
relatively warm temps aloft look to curb significant convective
development. All this points to low end chance pops for the area
for Monday afternoon and temps ranging from the upper 80s to mid
90s.

Ridge will get flattened very quickly though on Tuesday as a
shortwave moves into the Tennessee Valley. In addition, moisture
will be increasing from the south with PWATs approaching 2 inches
across Central GA. Will go with likely pops for the entire area
even though instability may struggle a bit given abundant cloud
cover across the area.

Big differences in the evolution of the developing cutoff low over
the Tennessee Valley per the latest long term guidance. The GFS
keeps the energy bottled up north of the area while the ECMWF
sends energy southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Regardless of the exact unfolding of this event, enough moisture
and lift should be present to warrant likely pops through Thu.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions thru period, unless TSRA this afternoon/evening
drops VSBYs. Greatest chance for northern sites with an upper
disturbance after about 20/21z until 00z. Some FEW/SCT cu 3-5 kft
otherwise with alto/cirrus. Winds WSW 7-10 kts decreasing to 3-5
kts overnight then west winds back up for Sunday with some low end
gusts possible near KATL. Chances for precip Sunday afternoon too
low to mention in TAFs for now.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on storm coverage this afternoon/evening.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  91  72  92 /  30  20  10  40
Atlanta         71  89  72  89 /  30  20  10  40
Blairsville     65  81  66  83 /  30  40  40  50
Cartersville    69  89  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
Columbus        73  93  73  93 /  30  20  10  30
Gainesville     70  87  71  89 /  30  20  20  40
Macon           72  93  73  93 /  20  20   5  30
Rome            69  89  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
Peachtree City  70  89  71  90 /  30  20  10  30
Vidalia         74  95  75  96 /  20  20   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
527 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-280930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
527 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon, mainly impacting north Georgia and portions of west
Georgia. Some isolated strong storms will be possible with gusty
winds, small hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall as the
primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy rain will be possible with any storms that do develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
236 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

GAZ011-012-019-271900-
Chattooga GA-Gordon GA-Floyd GA-
236 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...WESTERN GORDON AND
FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Subligna to near New Moon...and moving east at 35
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Rome, Calhoun, Summerville, Resaca, Plainville, Shannon, Lyerly,
Pinson, Oostanaula, Subligna, Tidings, Armuchee, Lake Marvin,
Audubon, Berryton, Sugar Valley, Chattoogaville, Everett Springs,
James H. Floyd State Park and Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3457 8517 3459 8479 3423 8519 3431 8547
      3444 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 268DEG 32KT 3450 8521 3440 8547

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

GAZ011-012-019-020-030-031-271945-
Chattooga GA-Polk GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-Floyd GA-
314 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHATTOOGA...NORTHERN
POLK...GORDON...BARTOW...NORTHEASTERN PAULDING AND FLOYD COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 311 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Calhoun to near Cave Spring...and moving east at 45
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Rome, Cartersville, Calhoun, Cedartown, Adairsville, Rockmart,
Euharlee, Emerson, Aragon, Cave Spring, White, Kingston, Braswell,
Plainville, Taylorsville, Shannon, Cassville, Fairmount, Ranger and
Pinson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3456 8513 3455 8465 3436 8465 3435 8464
      3435 8465 3421 8466 3408 8472 3408 8474
      3403 8474 3396 8477 3402 8541 3409 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 269DEG 47KT 3449 8494 3413 8526

WIND...40MPH