Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms popping across
the area as a frontal system nears the area. The main low pressure
center is developing along the MO/IL/IA border with its trailing
cold front pushing through the Mid to Lower MS river valley. Moist
southwesterly flow ahead of the front is pushing a few weak waves
across the state and with daytime heating we are seeing showers and
thunderstorms. With a moist environment and good heating,
instabilities are also increasing. Seeing MUCapes hovering around
1500 to 2500 and Low Level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5 range.
Combined with PWs in the 1.5 to 1.7in range we will see some strong
to severe showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and
continuing again Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The main hazards
continue to be being gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of
heavy rain with these storms. There is very little in the way of
shear in this atmosphere so not looking for much in the way of a
tornado threat. This pattern is expected to continue through the
middle of the week.

With precip chances increasing through the week, daytime high temps
will only get up into the 80s to near 90. This is just a bit cooler
than the past few days.

01

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

A cold front will begin moving through the area on Wednesday
increasing the coverage for showers and thunderstorms especially in
the afternoon and evening. The trough will take it's time moving
through the area causing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
linger until the weekend. Given PW values out ahead of the front
around 2 inches, storms that do form have the potential to produce
heavy rain at times. The front should help to marginalize
temperatures, keeping them in the low to mid 80s before the ridge
builds in again for the weekend.

As the front moves out, high pressure builds in the Atlantic and we
immediately roll back into southerly flow increasing both temp and
dewpoints this weekend. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
return as daytime heating initiates convection. Highs this weekend
will range from the upper 80s up north to the mid 90s down in
central Georgia.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... Showers and isolated thunderstorms
popping up across the area. Ceilings and VSBYs are still VFR but
will see some brief MVFR conditions as stronger storms develop
this afternoon and move across the TAF sites. These showers will
continue through the evening hours then diminish some overnight.
Expecting a repeat Tuesday with more afternoon and evening
SHRA/TSRA. Winds will stay mainly out of the SW at 10kt or less
but will see some variable gust to 20kt in and around convective
activity.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  70  83  69 /  70  50  70  70
Atlanta         89  69  82  69 /  70  60  70  70
Blairsville     83  65  76  63 /  70  70  70  70
Cartersville    89  68  82  68 /  70  60  70  70
Columbus        92  71  85  71 /  60  50  70  70
Gainesville     88  68  80  68 /  70  60  70  70
Macon           93  71  86  70 /  50  40  70  70
Rome            88  69  83  68 /  70  70  70  60
Peachtree City  91  69  82  69 /  70  60  70  70
Vidalia         96  74  89  72 /  30  20  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1152 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1152 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

An increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected
today into tonight. A few thunderstorms may become strong to
severe this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be gusty
winds...frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain will be possible with any storms that do develop.
A cold front is expected to move through the area on Wednesday
through Friday bringing additional chances for scattered
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
445 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

GAZ066-067-078-222115-
Harris GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
445 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HARRIS...SOUTHERN TROUP
AND SOUTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Abbottsford to near Whitesville-Pine Lake...and
moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
LaGrange, Hogansville, Pine Mountain, Saint Marks, Mountville,
Cannonville, Louise, Odessadale, Stovall, Big Springs, Durand, Jones
Crossroads, Baughs Crossroads, Harris City, Smiths Crossroad,
Whitesville-Pine Lake and Long Cane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3297 8519 3319 8485 3296 8469 3274 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 238DEG 18KT 3308 8516 3279 8496

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
452 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

GAZ069>071-080>082-222115-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Taylor GA-Bibb GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-
452 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR...SOUTHWESTERN
MONROE...NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR...NORTHWESTERN BIBB...EASTERN UPSON AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 452 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near The Rock to near Sandy Point to Reynolds...and
moving north at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Roberta, Reynolds, Yatesville, Culloden, The Rock, Redbone
Crossroads, Russellville, Musella, Potterville, Knoxville, Redbone,
Logtown, Lizella, Lee Pope, Salem, Sandy Point, Horns, Piedmont and
Fickling Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3269 8424 3286 8429 3303 8427 3304 8425
      3305 8425 3291 8381 3264 8384 3251 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 198DEG 13KT 3292 8427 3277 8390 3256 8410

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

GAZ102-103-222130-
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
456 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STEWART AND
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Richland...
moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lumpkin, Preston, Richland, Seminole, Charles and Brooklyn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3213 8483 3222 8461 3221 8460 3219 8459
      3219 8456 3217 8456 3203 8450 3199 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 252DEG 26KT 3207 8473

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
457 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

GAZ025-027-035>038-047-050-222130-
Madison GA-Jackson GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
Greene GA-Oconee GA-
457 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN WALTON...SOUTHEASTERN BARROW...
WESTERN OGLETHORPE...CLARKE...NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND OCONEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Bethlehem to Beechwood Hills to Greshamville...and
moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Watkinsville, Athens, Statham, Arcade, Nicholson, Winterville,
Bogart, Crawford, North High Shoals, Bethlehem, Colbert,
Arnoldsville, Woodville, Bishop, Maxeys, Hull, Whitehall,
Athens-Clarke County, Stephens and Westgate Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3409 8320 3366 8311 3361 8335 3369 8340
      3371 8342 3382 8348 3389 8376 3412 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 242DEG 17KT 3391 8373 3397 8341 3364 8333

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
458 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

GAZ091-222130-
Marion GA-
458 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 458 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Zellobee...
moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Buena Vista, Brantley, Tazewell, Marion Estates, Oakland and
Zellobee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3229 8466 3233 8466 3252 8459 3238 8439
      3233 8439 3225 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 218DEG 9KT 3231 8459

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
510 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

GAZ012-222145-
Gordon GA-
510 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GORDON COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM EDT...

At 509 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Redbud...
moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Calhoun, Ranger, Oakman, Sonoraville, Redbud and Audubon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3461 8472 3461 8473 3460 8473 3460 8471
      3459 8470 3459 8468 3458 8468 3458 8465
      3451 8465 3442 8479 3449 8493 3461 8480
      3462 8476 3461 8475 3462 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 228DEG 13KT 3449 8484

WIND...40MPH