River Flood Warning 447, NWS Atlanta, GA

517 
WGUS82 KFFC 121031
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  North Oconee River near Commerce affecting Jackson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.


GAC157-122245-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0447.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CMRG1.1.ER.201012T0500Z.201012T0845Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
631 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Oconee River near Commerce.
* Until further notice.
* At 5:15 AM EDT Monday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
* Impact...At 15 feet, Flood Stage is reached. Minor flooding begins 
  of woodlands and fields near the river upstream and downstream 
  from the gage on the Woods Bridge Road.


&&

LAT...LON 3427 8372 3432 8367 3422 8349 3410 8343
      3407 8349 3418 8355

$$

267 
WGUS82 KFFC 121511
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1111 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  North Oconee River near Commerce affecting Jackson County.

GAC157-121615-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0447.000000T0000Z-201012T1511Z/
/CMRG1.1.ER.700119T1307Z.700119T1308Z.700119T1308Z.UU/
1111 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...The Flood Warning for the North Oconee River near Commerce has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the North Oconee River near Commerce.
* At 10:15 AM EDT Monday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.


&&

LAT...LON 3427 8372 3432 8367 3422 8349 3410 8343
      3407 8349 3418 8355

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1118 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.UPDATE...

Light showers that were previously crossing the area have pretty
much completely fizzled out. With abundant low level moisture
across the area, the main forecast issues tonight will be the
expected fog and low ceilings.

Reaves

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 745 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020/

..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

An abundance of dry air exists aloft above 700 hPa, but we will have
a hard time reaching it for the next 24 hours because in the wake of
the remnants of Delta, ample low-level moisture is in place
throughout the forecast area. In the upper-levels, a weak shortwave
that swept Delta to the northeast, is still hovering over the area
and providing some weak lift to the low-levels which is creating a
widespread swath of light showers and drizzle across the region. As
the evening goes on the forcing for these showers should wane but
with coverage as far west as the AL/MS boarder it's a bit unclear at
what time these showers should move out. Overnight areas of fog and
low-level clouds should develop. With the overnight rains the
dewpoints should be in the upper 60s, with very low dewpoint
depressions. The scale and thickness of the fog will likely depend
on when the rain showers dissipate from the area.

Tomorrow, the thicker low-level clouds should clear by the afternoon
as the moist airmass begins to move out and a small pocket of PWATS
under an inch move through. However, the more significant dry air
mass will begin to move in at the very end of the short term as a
frontal system moves through very early Tuesday morning with PWATS
near 0.25 inches behind it.

Thiem

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

The long term period begins with a weak front pushing into north GA
by Tuesday morning. Moisture looks limited so expecting mostly dry
conditions with the front. With a general west to northwest flow
aloft we can look for dry and warm weather through the end of the
week. Another front is expected Thursday night into Friday as a long
wave trough deepens from the Great Lakes into the Gulf. GFS and
ECMWF in good agreement on the overall pattern through the period.
Not much moisture with this front but there may be a slight chance
for some showers across the far north Thursday night and Friday.
Some cooler temperatures are in store for the weekend.

41

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Isolated -SHRA should diminish over the next few hours. Fog will
be possible at all sites overnight before improving around 13-15Z
Monday. Cigs should drop to IFR by 3-5Z with LIFR possible
beginning around 5-8Z at all sites. Cigs should lift to MVFR by
around 15-18Z with VFR cigs after. Winds should be mostly calm
overnight before becoming W/NW around 5-9kts on Monday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on cigs/vsbys, high confidence on all other elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  79  64  84 /  30  10   5   5
Atlanta         66  77  64  80 /  20  10   5   5
Blairsville     62  74  57  76 /  30  10  10   5
Cartersville    66  78  61  79 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus        67  82  65  85 /  20  10   5   0
Gainesville     65  77  64  81 /  20  10   5   5
Macon           67  82  63  88 /  20  10   5   5
Rome            65  80  61  80 /  20  10  10   0
Peachtree City  65  79  64  81 /  20  10   5   5
Vidalia         69  82  66  88 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Reaves

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1042 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130245-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1042 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

However, please adhere to all ongoing River Flood Warnings with
several rivers in the Atlanta metro still in flood.

Overnight some patchy dense fog will also be possible throughout
the forecast area. If traveling, please drive slow and give plenty
of space between yourself and the car in front of you.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW FELTON            33.91N  85.30W
10/10/2020                   POLK               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN NORTH OF HWY 27 AND HWY 100.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001243

TV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANTIOCH                 33.95N  85.16W
10/10/2020                   POLK               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHTOWER FALLS RD AND WOOD FALL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001244

TV