Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
702 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

.AVIATION...
Showers moving up the I-35 corridor at the moment, approaching the
AUS terminal. A relatively brief period of showers should be the
only impact. Otherwise southeasterly winds are slowly weakening to
10-15 kts. Morning MVFR for all sites before lifting late morning.
Gusty winds return again tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Satellite and radar data shows convection developing across north
Texas indicating the stronger area of lift is moving north of our
region. However, we do see a subtle uptick in convection east of I-
35 this afternoon. Based on radar trends, we will continue to
mention low end chance pops for areas along and east of I-35 through
this afternoon. With the loss of daytime heating, we should see a
decrease in convection and we will lower rain chances to 20 percent
for the early evening hours. For the overnight hours, we will keep
the forecast dry as low clouds develop. A warm night is in store
with lows in the 70s.

We will keep the forecast dry across south central Texas on Monday
as an lift embedded in the southwest flow aloft looks to remain well
north of the region. Temperatures should warm to near normal for
this time of the year, with highs ranging from near 90 in the Hill
Country to near 100 along the Rio Grande. The dry forecast continues
Monday night with lows in the 70s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The 500 mb center of high pressure slides westward from the Gulf of
Mexico to just south of the region by Tuesday afternoon. High
temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will be in the mid 90s for most
locations with near 100 degrees along the Rio Grande. Elevated
humidity will send max heat index values ranging from 103 to 108
degrees. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
off the dryline Tuesday evening across the Hill Country and Rio
Grande Plains. Wednesday will bring much of the same in regards to
temperatures, heat index values, as well as another slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

By Thursday the mid level high strengthens and heads north toward the
Southern Plains (eventually sliding a bit southwest toward the Desert
Southwest by the weekend). With greater subsidence from the mid
level ridge, precip chances decrease and the region should remain dry
Thursday through the weekend. High temperatures will increase into
the upper 90s for most locations during this period, but a decrease
in humidity will actually lower heat index values a few degrees over
this period compared to Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  94  78  95  77 /  20  10  -   -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  93  78  95  77 /  20  10  -   -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  93  77  95  76 /  20  10  -   -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  92  76  95  75 /  10  -   -   10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  99  79 100  79 /   0  -   10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  93  77  96  76 /  20  -   -   10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             76  95  77  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  93  77  95  76 /  20  10  -   -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  92  79  94  78 /  20  10  -   -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  94  78  95  78 /  20  10  -   -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  94  78  95  78 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...YBVP
Long-Term...Treadway

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
720 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

TXZ191>193-208-290100-
Caldwell TX-Bastrop TX-Hays TX-Travis TX-
720 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...EAST
CENTRAL HAYS...SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVIS AND WEST CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Uhland, or near Lockhart, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Lockhart, Austin Bergstrom Int
Airport, Uhland, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Cedar Creek, Onion Creek,
Creedmoor, Maha, Del Valle, Pilot Knob, McKinney Falls State Park,
Lytton Springs, St John Colony and Mendoza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 9776 2996 9793 3025 9767 3003 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 225DEG 14KT 2995 9775

AAT

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
759 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

TXZ192-193-208-290145-
Caldwell TX-Bastrop TX-Travis TX-
759 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CALDWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS AND WEST CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM
CDT...

At 758 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mustang Ridge, or 9 miles north of Lockhart, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bastrop, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Cedar Creek, Wyldwood, Hornsby
Bend, Webberville, Creedmoor, Garfield, Maha and Mendoza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3008 9733 2994 9770 2999 9775 3003 9771
      3006 9776 3027 9755
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 229DEG 10KT 3001 9767

AAT

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