Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2020

Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

March 21, 2020Gillespie County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this special weather statement at Mar 21, 2020, 4:03 PM CDT for Gillespie County, Texas. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 21, 2020, 4:03 PM CDT (21:03 UTC)
Expired
Mar 21, 2020, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
27 min
Issued by
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

County Gillespie County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 334 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 12:00Z on 2020-03-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 12:00Z on 2020-03-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 344 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
465 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
344 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
425 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
5.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 21, 2:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 21, 2:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
246 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Area radars are showing light to moderate showers across most areas
with the exception of the Hill Country and a MCS pushing to the east
and away from the far southeast counties. HiRes models suggest for
the light to moderate activity to expand to the north and east later
on this afternoon to then affect the Hill Country and areas along
the I-35 corridor including both Austin and San Antonio metro areas.
There is enough upper level support for elevated thunderstorms to
produce small hail and enough low level moisture to converge for
heavy rain and ultimately producing localized flash flooding. The
converge zone which looks to be over the Hill Country late this
afternoon or early evening may see a few strong storms and numerous
heavy showers before things begin to calm down close to midnight
tonight.

A cool and saturated low level layer calls for the formation of
patchy to areas of fog across most of South Central Texas tonight
through Sunday morning. Can't rule out dense fog for areas over the
Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor overnight. Overnight lows
are expected to range from the lower 50s over the Hill Country to
mid and upper 50s elsewhere.

Rain chances decrease significantly on Sunday with a slight chance
for showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the far east. Highs
will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. The return of southerly
flow across the area on Sunday evening brings lows back the mild
upper 50s and mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

A calm and seasonally hot forecast is in store for the week ahead.
Zonal flow is expected, with a system passing to our north across
the central Plains Monday night into Tuesday. As ridging takes gold
over the western Gulf of Mexico, continued southerly sfc flow and
mostly clear skies will send temperatures skyrocketing. Highs will
be in the upper 70s and 80s Monday, warming to the upper 80s and 90s
by Wednesday and Thursday. A 100 degree reading over our
southwestern zones wouldn't be completely unexpected, though at this
time is not explicitly forecast. A cold front will finally provide
some relief sometime Friday or Friday night, but even on Saturday
highs will likely still be in the 70s and 80s. At this time, only
expecting a slight chance of precip behind this front but will
continue to monitor for forecast changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 107 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to spread across the area
from the southwest and south into the I-35 terminals and KDRT. This
trend is forecast to persist through the evening hours as upper level
disturbances in combination with increased low level moisture to
generate new rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Most thunderstorms
will be elevated with stronger storms possibly of producing small
sized hail and heavy rain. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys are expected for
the rest of the afternoon period with IFR and LIFR anticipated later
tonight with great chances for dropping down to VLIFR along the I-35
sites due to dense fog overnight. Showers and storms move out of the
area sites overnight/Sunday morning with some lingering activity
over the far east of South Central Texas. Expect the return of MVFR
conditions for the I-35 airports by 18Z Sunday and a few hours later
for KDRT. Northeast winds of 8 to 12 knots expected through this
evening across the area with the exception of a passing thunderstorm
over any terminal. Winds become light and variable overnight and
then shift to the south for most areas on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  73  63  80  65 /  80  -   -   -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  53  74  63  81  64 /  80  10  -   -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     53  73  63  82  63 /  80  10  -   -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            51  69  60  78  63 /  80  -   -   -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  76  59  84  63 /  40   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        53  71  62  79  63 /  80  -   -   -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             52  71  60  84  62 /  80  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        53  74  63  82  63 /  80  10  -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  77  66  83  66 /  80  20  10  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       54  73  63  82  64 /  80  10  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           54  74  64  83  65 /  70  10  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...17
Long-Term...KCW
Decision Support...33
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 21, 3:09 PM CDT, 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
309 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-222015-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
309 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through late this evening.
Some storms may produce heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts will be
highest generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. Some minor
flooding is possible in low-lying and normally flood-prone areas.

Areas of fog are expected later tonight over most locations.
Cant't rule our areas developing dense fog conditions overnight
mainly across the Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 21, 10:53 AM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1053 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

TXZ221-222-211630-
Karnes TX-Wilson TX-
1053 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL KARNES AND CENTRAL
WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

At 1052 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Poth, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Floresville, Poth, Stockdale, Kosciusko, Falls City, Pandora,
Sutherland Springs, Hobson and Paweleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2890 9803 2900 9823 2932 9814 2925 9779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 203DEG 18KT 2904 9810

KCW
Special weather statement, Mar 21, 2:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
230 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

TXZ186-212000-
Kerr TX-
230 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KERR COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

At 230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Kerr Wildlife Management Area, or 26 miles
southeast of Junction, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kerr Wildlife Management Area, I-10 Near The Kimble-Kerr County Line
and The Intersection Of I-10 And Us 290.

LAT...LON 3003 9953 3010 9972 3029 9964 3029 9938
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 204DEG 38KT 3014 9960

KCW
Special weather statement, Mar 21, 3:29 PM CDT, 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
329 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

TXZ188-212100-
Gillespie TX-
329 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harper, or 13 miles northwest of Kerrville, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harper, Tivydale and Doss.

LAT...LON 3033 9887 3014 9925 3021 9930 3027 9930
      3050 9911 3050 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 227DEG 26KT 3022 9925

RUNYEN
Special weather statement, Mar 21, 4:03 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
403 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

TXZ171-188-212130-
Gillespie TX-Llano TX-
403 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GILLESPIE AND
SOUTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Tivydale, or 10 miles northwest of Fredericksburg,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eckert, Prairie Mountain, Crabapple, Willow City and Enchanted Rock
State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 9904 3036 9911 3062 9884 3040 9866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 234DEG 23KT 3035 9902

RUNYEN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 21, 9:17 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXKarnes43 min
Mar 21, 9:57 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXKarnes63 min
Mar 21, 10:08 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXAtascosa, Karnes, Wilson37 min
Mar 21, 10:53 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXWilson37 min
Mar 21, 12:53 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXDeWitt, Karnes112 min
Mar 21, 1:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXDeWitt, Lavaca14 min
Mar 21, 2:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXLavaca21 min
Mar 21, 2:25 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXDeWitt, Karnes4 hr
Mar 21, 2:30 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXKerr30 min
Mar 21, 3:19 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXLavaca3 hr
Mar 21, 3:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXGillespie31 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2020Every special weather statement in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.