Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1130 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.AVIATION...
A complicated forecast period as multiple features affecting flying
conditions. A slow moving cold front draped across the area is
causing ongoing showers and isolated thunder. Rain and fog are
affecting visibility categories and little, if any, improvement for
ceilings is expected through both the 24 hour and 30 hour period. As
the slow front continues to the southeast, it is expecting to stall
near the coast continuing unsettled weather. North northeast winds
behind the front should stay relatively light.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
An upper level low is moving southward along the west coast and has
the flow over Texas from the southwest this morning. This low will
begin to move to the east today across northern Mexico. At the
surface, a cold front is stretched from Dallas to Ozona to
Alamogordo, NM. Winds across our CWA are from the southeast and
warm, moist air covers the area. There are streamer showers moving
through the Coastal Plains east of I-37. Patchy fog has developed
and will continue to spread across the area until around noon. Rain
chances will increase early in the day as the front moves into our
area. There will also be a slight chance for thunderstorms,
especially along the front this afternoon. There is chance that some
storms could be strong to severe as the front moves through. SPC has
included most of our area in the marginal risk for today. Forecast
soundings show a short window with favorable conditions, but once
the front moves through the low levels become stable. Then the
chance for stronger storms will be from elevated convection. So, the
threat is low. The main threat will be large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

The front will bring cooler air and temperatures will be steady or
fall through the afternoon expect in the southern part of the area
where the front won't arrive until late afternoon or early evening.
The front will stall near the coast and this will keep the weather
unsettled across the region. Rain chances will be lowest tonight and
then increase again Tuesday as the upper low moves into West Texas.
Showers are likely across the entire area Tuesday with a slight
chance for thunderstorms. With rain and cloud cover Tuesday
temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s over most of the CWA.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The upper level low will move across the area on Wednesday. Ahead of
it, a lower level boundary above the shallow cool airmass provides
upward forcing of a convergence zone of ample moisture. Numerous to
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. GFS has PWs of up to 1.8 inches along
the I-35 corridor which are record levels for this time of year,
while the other models are a little lower, though well above normal.
Locally heavy rains are possible from the eastern Hill Country to
along and east of the I-35 corridor where WPC has a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall. Pockets of 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts are
possible and may cause some minor flooding of the usual streams where
runoff is more rapid and in low lying areas with poor drainage. The
showers and thunderstorms end from west to east on Wednesday after
the passage of the lower level boundary, although there is slight
chance of showers over the Hill Country with passage of the upper
level low.

Fair skies and temperatures averaging below normal are expected on
Thursday and Friday. Southerly lower level flow returns with
increasing moisture leading to slight chances of showers as weak mid
level disturbances and a possible front move across the area next
weekend. However, there is some disagreement among the models on if
these features move across our area. Temperatures warm to near normal
Saturday and above normal Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  45  49  46  59 / 100  50  90 100  80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  46  50  44  61 / 100  50  90 100  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  48  51  46  62 /  90  50  80 100  70
Burnet Muni Airport            55  41  46  41  55 /  90  60  90 100  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  54  55  45  66 /  90  40  60  90  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  42  47  43  57 /  90  40  90 100  80
Hondo Muni Airport             73  51  53  46  65 /  80  50  70  90  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  47  50  45  62 / 100  50  80 100  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  50  54  48  62 /  90  60  90 100  90
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  50  52  48  63 /  90  50  80  90  70
Stinson Muni Airport           73  50  52  48  64 /  90  50  70  90  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...YB
Long-Term...Hampshire
Decision Support...Oaks

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
951 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

TXZ183-101630-
Val Verde TX-
951 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 AM CST...

At 951 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Juno, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Juno.

LAT...LON 3029 10120 3029 10083 3001 10122 3013 10136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 225DEG 29KT 3013 10123

HAMPSHIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
122 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

TXZ185>187-102000-
Kerr TX-Real TX-Bandera TX-
122 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BANDERA...SOUTHERN
KERR AND EAST CENTRAL REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CST...

At 121 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Tuff, or 9 miles northeast of Leakey, moving east
at 45 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Kerrville, Center Point, Camp Verde, Kerrville-Schreiner Park
and Lost Maples State Natural Area.

LAT...LON 2975 9976 2993 9978 3011 9904 2980 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 261DEG 38KT 2985 9969

MO