Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

401 
WWUS54 KEWX 200139
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
839 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXC127-200215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-200320T0215Z/
Dimmit TX-
839 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DIMMIT COUNTY...

At 839 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Catarina, or 13
miles south of Big Wells, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Catarina, Las Vegas and Chaparral Wildlife Management Area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2841 9969 2862 9939 2836 9939 2830 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 249DEG 26KT 2837 9959 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

RUNYEN

863 
WWUS54 KEWX 200153
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
853 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXC127-200215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-200320T0215Z/
Dimmit TX-
853 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL DIMMIT COUNTY...

At 853 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Light, or 12 miles southeast of Big Wells, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Chaparral Wildlife Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2845 9959 2862 9939 2836 9939 2832 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 245DEG 30KT 2842 9946 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RUNYEN

739 
WWUS54 KEWX 200211
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
911 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXC127-200221-
/O.EXP.KEWX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-200320T0215Z/
Dimmit TX-
911 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL DIMMIT COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 2845 9959 2862 9939 2836 9939 2832 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 245DEG 30KT 2848 9932 

$$

RUNYEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
641 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.AVIATION...
All terminals are currently VFR with easterly to southeasterly winds.
A cold front is approaching the area from the north. This front will
bring showers and thunderstorms with lower ceilings and visibility.
Convection will move into DRT first later this evening and spread to
San Antonio and Austin. At DRT conditions will stay VFR initially,
but in San Antonio and Austin ceilings will drop to MVFR with showers
and thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings will develop at DRT by Friday
morning. The front will bring northerly to northwesterly winds
starting between 09Z and 12Z. Convection will move away by around 18Z
Friday. Ceiling will lift to VFR at DRT, but remain MVFR in Austin
and San Antonio.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Thick cloud cover remains across most of South-Central Texas at this
time with temperatures in the 70s for the most part. Other than
that, things have been fairly quiet since the remaining showers and
storms moved out of the area this morning. However, things will be
quickly changing this evening as the upper low still remains west of
Texas. A weak frontal boundary will move into the area around the
same time as the next impulse embedded in the southwest flow aloft.
This should allow for convection to quickly develop in our our
southwestern CWA around 00z then spread northeastward. The storm
development will be aided by the boundary as well.

Overall, coverage of activity is expected to be high, although there
are some discrepancies from the latest high-res guidance on the area
of best coverage depending on where the initial precip area
develops. Activity is expected to diminish in coverage by the mid-
afternoon hours. CAPE values will remain in the 1000-1500 J/kg range
and with enough deep level shear in place, there will remain a
threat of isolated strong to severe storms within the activity. SPC
has nearly all of the CWA in a marginal risk and this seems
appropriate based on latest trends. Low temperatures tonight will
remain in the 50s and 60s. Highs tomorrow will be not too much
warmer than the lows as the cold front moves across the area.

The break in activity in the afternoon hours Friday will be short-
lived as yet another impulse brings an increase of isentropic ascent
on top of the frontal layer. This activity will begin in the
southwest CWA after Friday night. Will show the higher PoPs in this
region. With the abundance of cloud cover continuing, lows will
remain in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Isentropic ascent above the shallow cool air mass and ample moisture will
yield scattered to widespread showers on Saturday with high
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Forcing for ascent may be
aided by a weak short wave trough moving west to east across the
Plains. There will be some elevated instability, so some
thunderstorms will also be possible. Rainfall totals up to a half
inch or so are possible on Saturday and Saturday evening. Chances for
light showers linger into Sunday for areas along and east of the
Interstate 35 corridor, but only minimal accumulated rainfall is
expected. High temperatures on Sunday rebound into the low to mid
70s.

The warming trend increases Monday and into the middle of next week
as a large 500 mb high establishes itself over north central Mexico.
High temperatures return to the mid 80s by Tuesday and near 90 by
Wednesday/Thursday (low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Plains) with
dry conditions persisting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  63  49  61  55 /  70  80  10  60  80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  60  63  48  62  54 /  70  90  10  60  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  67  49  61  55 /  70  80  20  60  70
Burnet Muni Airport            56  60  45  58  51 /  70  70  10  50  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           63  71  53  63  55 /  60  30  30  40  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  61  46  59  53 /  70  80  10  50  80
Hondo Muni Airport             65  67  51  64  54 /  70  70  40  70  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  63  49  61  54 /  70  90  20  60  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  70  51  64  58 /  70  70  20  50  80
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  67  51  61  56 /  70  80  20  70  60
Stinson Muni Airport           67  67  52  62  56 /  70  80  30  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...Runyen
Decision Support...Treadway

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
122 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-201830-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
122 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight
into Friday morning. A few strong to severe storms are possible
with hail and damaging winds the main threat.

Locally heavy rainfall is also possible from midnight tonight to
noon on Friday. There is a potential for flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
447 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     HAIL             4 SSE DOSS              30.39N 99.11W
03/19/2020  E0.25 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   COCORAHS

&&

PAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
741 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXZ217-228-200130-
Maverick TX-Dimmit TX-
741 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAVERICK AND
NORTHWESTERN DIMMIT COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 740 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Chupadera Ranch Airport, or 15 miles southeast of El
Indio, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carrizo Springs and Carrizo Hill.

LAT...LON 2828 10019 2839 10024 2860 9987 2840 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 243DEG 23KT 2836 10014

RUNYEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
819 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

TXZ228-200200-
Dimmit TX-
819 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DIMMIT COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Catarina, or 15 miles southeast of Carrizo Springs, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Wells, Gilson Groves, Catarina and Las Vegas.

LAT...LON 2837 9984 2864 9948 2864 9940 2840 9940
      2825 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 237DEG 34KT 2835 9971

RUNYEN