Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

154 
WWUS54 KEWX 160143
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
843 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXC137-160152-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-200516T0215Z/
Edwards TX-
843 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3012 9936 2948 9945 2963 10001 2966 10003
      2968 10002 2971 10006 2972 10002 2974 10003
      2975 10002 2978 10003 2980 10001 2982 10002
      3005 9981
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 278DEG 33KT 2986 9965 

$$

TXC019-265-385-463-160215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-200516T0215Z/
Bandera TX-Kerr TX-Uvalde TX-Real TX-
843 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN BANDERA...WEST CENTRAL KERR...NORTHEASTERN UVALDE AND
REAL COUNTIES...

At 842 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lost Maples
State Natural Area, or 9 miles northwest of Vanderpool, moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Leakey, Vanderpool, Camp Wood, Tuff, Garner State Park, Rio Frio,
Utopia, Lost Maples State Natural Area, Vance, Kerr Wildlife
Management Area, and Prade Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Austin San Antonio.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 9936 2948 9945 2963 10001 2966 10003
      2968 10002 2971 10006 2972 10002 2974 10003
      2975 10002 2978 10003 2980 10001 2982 10002
      3005 9981
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 278DEG 33KT 2986 9965 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
748 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.UPDATE...
Squall line taking shape over the Edwards Plateau to Rio Grande
Valley. Have added Bandera, Uvalde, Maverick, and Zavala to Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 188. Squall line will track eastward reaching the
I-35 corridor between 10 PM and 1 PM. The primary threat remains
strong damaging winds. Wind gusts to 55 and 61 mph were recently
observed at Del Rio Airport. Cannot rule out 1 inch hail, however.
Reasoning in the previous discussions still valid.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020/

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA will move across KDRT until 04Z and across the I-35 sites
between 03Z-09Z. Otherwise, SHRA will be in the VCNTY of the I-35
sites until 14Z. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are expected at KAUS between 03Z-
22Z, KSAT/KSSF between 03Z-09Z. Otherwise VFR flying conditions will
prevail tonight through Saturday evening. Wind gusts up to 60 KTs
are possible with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, E-SE winds 5 to 15
KTs will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Summary: Primary forecast concern has shifted over time from flash
flooding to large hail (mainly Rio Grande area) and damaging winds
as convective allowing models continue to indicate progressive storm
motions with cold-pool dominant, linear storm structures likely to
impact much of south-central TX this evening and overnight. While
flash flooding remains possible, the storms should be quick moving
for the most part, reducing the chance for excessive rainfall.
Storms will likely develop and move into the Rio Grande Plains in
the 4-7pm time frame, reaching the I-35 corridor between 11pm-3am.
Storms are expected to be mainly east and south of the forecast area
by 4-5am.

Details: Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon indicates a
gradual scattering of the low level cloud field. Temperatures are
mainly in the 80s for most with very moist dew points of 67-75. A
few spots should reach the low 90s this afternoon south and west.
Some weak early afternoon echoes have developed across the southern
Edwards Plateau this afternoon which was well forecast by the 16Z
HRRR. Some storms had also been having trouble sustaining updrafts
well out west over the Trans-Pecos region but have become more
robust as of 19Z.

A relatively stout shortwave trough axis was analyzed near El Paso
and this will provide the bulk of the large-scale ascent as PVA
continues to push to the west. The sub-tropical jet left exit region
will also provide diffluence aloft this evening and tonight.
Development of a large MCS is likely this evening and overnight. A
few convective allowing models continue to hint at the chance for
isolated showers and storms well ahead of the main show over our
eastern counties later today. Showers and storms have developed
along a remnant boundary over the Houston area, and this
activity/it's outflow will propagate westward over the next couple
of hours perhaps allowing this development to occur.

Mid-level lapse rates are very steep, already 8+ C/km out west and
growing. Very unstable air with MUCAPE north of 4000 J/kg is
available, perhaps even more than 5000 J/kg. However, deep layer
shear will be weak through the duration of the event, generally in
the 20-25 kt range. Thus, cold-pool dominant convective organization
will prevail as storms grow upscale. Early on, the threat for large
to very large hail near the Rio Grande will exist, however this will
gradually become a damaging wind event as the evening progresses.

Overall agreement between the CAMs is pretty good in regards to
hazard timing, with the slowest solution coming from the TTU-WRF and
NAMNest still indicating much of the main activity will be off to
the east by 4-5AM. However, TTU-WRF is also the most robust at
developing additional storms in an east-west orientation along and
south of the I-10/US-90 corridor during the morning hours. If this
were to verify, these areas would be more susceptible to the
isolated higher totals approaching 5" and thus an elevated flash
flood risk will exist if this occurs. Portions of Karnes, Gonzales,
Dewitt and Lavaca Counties would be especially at risk where heavy
rain fell on Tuesday and antecedent soil moisture conditions are
high. The rGEM and a couple of GEFS members are also hinting at this
possibility, so I believe it bears mentioning and keeping in mind,
however the ensemble signal for higher rainfall totals is much more
robust just to our east. Otherwise, given the progressive nature of
the MCS rainfall totals are expected to be in the 1-3" range for
most and only isolated flash flood impacts would result.

A few lingering showers and storms are possible over the east half
of the region tomorrow, but coverage is expected to be isolated at
best. Sunshine is expected west with highs in the low 90s. Sun will
eventually poke through over the east as well and with southeasterly
flow returning this will allow temperatures to top out near 80
despite the AM convection. The mid-level tough will close off but is
expected to gradually drift northeastward, keeping precipitation
chances low to nil as we head into Saturday evening.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
An upper level low will be located over northeast Texas by early
Sunday morning. Behind this low, our region will be left in fairly
weak northwest flow aloft. The models don't always handle northwest
flow aloft very well and we will continue to keep a chance for
showers and storms in the forecast for the Hill Country and areas
along/east of the I-35/I-37 corridors. If anything, we could see a
little better coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon hours
and may need to increase rain chances slightly in subsequent
forecasts. Any activity that did manage to develop should weaken
quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

As we head into the early portion of the upcoming week, an upper
level ridge will build over northern Mexico into western Texas. We
will see a drying trend across our region with temperatures remaining
close to climatological normals through Monday. The mid and upper
level ridge will expand eastward across Texas through the mid to late
portion of next week, resulting in a warm and dry forecast for south
central Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  82  68  86  66 /  90  50  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  81  67  86  65 / 100  50  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  81  67  86  66 / 100  40  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            66  81  65  84  63 /  80  40  10  20  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  92  70  93  71 /  80  10  -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  82  66  84  64 /  80  40  20  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             66  85  68  91  68 /  70  20  -   10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  81  66  86  65 / 100  40  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  80  69  85  67 /  80  50  20  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  83  69  88  68 /  90  30  -   20  -
Stinson Muni Airport           69  84  69  89  69 /  90  30  -   20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...05
Decision Support...Runyen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
116 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-161830-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
116 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

 There is an enhanced risk for severe storms this afternoon
through late tonight across much of South Central Texas. The
greatest threat for large hail will be across the Rio Grande
Plains and Western Hill Country. Damaging wind threat is in place
for all of South Central Texas. In addition to the severe risk,
there is a chance for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 1
to 3 inches of rainfall is possible with isolated amounts up to 5
inches which could lead to flash flooding impacts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
744 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             1 WSW BASTROP           30.11N 97.32W
05/15/2020  E0.25 INCH       BASTROP            TX   PUBLIC

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
756 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             4 S LAUGHLIN AFB        29.30N 100.79W
05/15/2020  E0.75 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   PUBLIC

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
801 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             5 E DEVIL'S SINKHOLE ST 30.06N 100.02W
05/15/2020  E1.00 INCH       EDWARDS            TX   COCORAHS

&&

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE ROCKSPRINGS       29.95N 100.17W
05/15/2020  M60 MPH          EDWARDS            TX   AWOS

            ECU AWOS MEASURED 60 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
805 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ173-192-193-160130-
Bastrop TX-Williamson TX-Travis TX-
805 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON...
EASTERN TRAVIS AND NORTHERN BASTROP COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 805 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elgin to near Cedar Creek. Movement was
northwest at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Pflugerville, Taylor, Elgin, Tanglewood Forest,
Austin Bergstrom Int Airport, Windemere, Hutto, Manor, West Lake
Hills, Rollingwood, Mustang Ridge, Bear Creek, Camp Swift, Coupland,
Shady Hollow, Onion Creek, Cedar Creek and Wyldwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3041 9730 3040 9733 3035 9722 3029 9715
      2997 9754 3007 9765 3004 9769 3010 9782
      3019 9794 3061 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 133DEG 14KT 3028 9734 3010 9756

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
806 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ190-191-206-160130-
Comal TX-Blanco TX-Hays TX-
806 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL HAYS...SOUTHWESTERN
BLANCO AND NORTH CENTRAL COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Smithson Valley, or 9 miles west of Canyon Lake Dam, moving north at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canyon Lake, Bulverde, Spring Branch, Smithson Valley, Twin Sisters,
Fischer and Startzville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3004 9815 2979 9826 2980 9844 2990 9846
      2994 9842 3001 9848 3008 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 185DEG 18KT 2985 9835

CP