River Flood Warning 5, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

666 
WGUS84 KEWX 260429
FLSEWX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1129 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Antonio River Near Elmendorf affecting Bexar and Wilson 
  Counties.

For the San Antonio River near Elmendorf...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Tuesday morning at 1130 AM CDT.

&&


TXC029-493-261630-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0005.200526T1732Z-200527T1900Z/
/ELMT2.1.ER.200526T1721Z.200526T2000Z.200527T0600Z.NO/
1129 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Antonio River Near Elmendorf.
* From Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 10:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 29.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  tomorrow afternoon before cresting around 38.1 feet. The river is 
  expected to fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 39.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding damages crops and 
  floods pastureland below San Antonio to below Floresville. 
  Secondary roads and low bridges, irrigation pumps, oil field pump 
  jacks and tank batteries flood. Livestock are cut off in low areas.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 38.2 
  feet on 04/25/2015.


&&

LAT...LON 2919 9838 2926 9835 2924 9821 2918 9813
      2911 9820 2918 9826

$$

BMW

621 
WGUS84 KEWX 261426
FLSEWX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
926 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  San Antonio River Near Elmendorf affecting Bexar and Wilson 
  Counties.

TXC029-493-261530-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0005.200526T1732Z-200527T1900Z/
/ELMT2.1.ER.200526T1721Z.200526T2000Z.200527T0600Z.NO/
926 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...The Flood Warning for the San Antonio River Near Elmendorf has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the San Antonio River Near Elmendorf.
* At 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 30.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 30.3 feet 
  late this morning.


&&

LAT...LON 2919 9838 2926 9835 2924 9821 2918 9813
      2911 9820 2918 9826

$$

HAMPSHIRE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
257 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
A second strong MCV in as many days has altered the influence of the
upper low that was earlier projected to cut off from the polar
westerlies and bring several days of rain opportunities. The MCV
responsible for the heavy rains Sunday night continues to spin away
over North Central TX and has taken on a more synoptic scale of
influence, including an early cold frontal push all the way into a
HDO to VCT line. While the upstream larger trough remains potent
enough to generate another broad coverage event for storms when the
rest of the front arrives, the likelihood of strong storms over
Central TX and the Austin metro area looks much reduced. The frontal
zone should retract in the evening with winds returning to more
easterly over and south of HWY 90 and broaden the marginal severe
threat for later tonight, and a few strong cells may still cross over
the inversion to around HWY 281 and just to the west of Austin for
mainly a hail threat. Timing has been fairly consistent among most of
the finer res models in terms of seeing the storms materialize over
the Edwards Plateau and possibly Rio Grande Plains, so we should see
the next round of storms ramp up over our CWA by right around 00Z. A
possible caveat is the radar trends of deep layer shower activity
west of CRP, but perhaps this ties in with some of the model
solutions that fire activity over the Rio Grande plains also at
around 00Z. CAPE values will be lower than from last night and only
the Rio Grande and Pecos river basin areas look ripe for the Slight
Risk level of storms while areas east of Hwy 83 look more prone to a
marginal threat. Thus the largest storm concern going into tonight
would be for another round of rain over saturated soils. Expect with
any areas that get 1-2 inches that area rivers and streams could bump
up to minor flood stage. However, the expected round of rains
tonight should be mainly less than 1 inch over the counties that are
most prone to run-off.

By daybreak, the rains should be retreating into East TX, and dry
air wrap-around flow below the broad upper trough should make for a
mostly stable and cool day for late Tuesday. Blended guidance
influences and past forecast influences over areas east of I-35 may
over-advertise the rain chance. Our QPF forecast for late Tuesday
into Tuesday night might tell the story more accurately.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The center of the upper low is expected to be near the Arklatex
region with northwest flow aloft over our area. This flow should be
mostly subsident with a mostly dry forecast expected on Wednesday.
The blends kept a 20 PoP across the northern CWA and trimmed the
spatial area back a bit. If the drier trend continues for another
model run, these PoPs may be taken completely out of the forecast.
Mostly dry weather is expected to continue into Thursday with highs
in the 80s and 90s expected.

A vort max on the backside of the upper low should arrive to the area
on Thursday/Thursday night with a possible frontal boundary
accompanying it. The GFS is the most bullish with an MCS moving
through the area with the higher intensity in the west, while the
ECMWF keeps the bulk of the thunderstorm activity in Mexico. Will
keep PoPs at 20 percent for now with slightly higher PoPs into the
weekend as south flow returns to the area increasing moisture once
again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  79  63  84  65 /  70  50  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  78  63  84  64 /  70  50  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  79  61  87  64 /  80  50  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            61  77  60  82  62 /  60  40  20  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  87  63  95  68 /  70  20   0  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  77  61  83  63 /  60  50  20  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             65  82  61  91  65 /  80  30  -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  78  61  87  63 /  80  50  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  78  63  84  65 /  60  60  30  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  81  63  89  66 /  80  40  10  10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           65  82  64  89  67 /  80  40  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...Hampshire
Decision Support...YBVP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
313 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-260815-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
313 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

One more round of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
later today through tonight with all severe weather hazards
possible. A small tornado threat will exist over the southern
Edwards Plateau/northern portions of the Rio Grande, and large to
very large hail will be possible there. As the night goes on and
storms move southeast across the area, the threat will transition
to damaging wind gusts.

In addition after heavy rain just fell, localized flooding will
again be of concern with 1-3 inches of rain possible in many
locations, and isolated higher totals near or in excess of 5
inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1011 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SEGUIN                  29.57N 97.96W
05/24/2020                   GUADALUPE          TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE OF A LARGE TREE SNAPPED
            AT THE BASE.

&&

NH