Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

497 
WGUS74 KEWX 041450
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
950 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

TXC209-453-041630-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200904T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hays TX-Travis TX-
950 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HAYS AND SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTIES...

At 950 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Austin, Kyle, Buda, Tanglewood Forest, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, 
  Bear Creek, Onion Creek, Shady Hollow, Manchaca, San Leanna, Hays, 
  Creedmoor and McKinney Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3019 9791 3020 9778 3016 9770 3009 9769
      2998 9781 3019 9795

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1 INCH IN 1 HOUR AND 30 MINUTES

$$

KCW

427 
WGUS74 KEWX 041632
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1132 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

TXC209-453-041642-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200904T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hays TX-Travis TX-
1132 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST CENTRAL HAYS AND SOUTH 
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3019 9791 3020 9778 3016 9770 3009 9769
      2998 9781 3019 9795

$$

PLATT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

.AVIATION...
SHRA will move across KAUS this morning with TS in the VCNTY with
VCSH at the other sites. SHRA/TSRA will be more numerous by this
afternoon and continue into at least this evening and have gone VCTS
with the expectation that one or more sites will need updating to
prevailing SHRA/TSRA. The SHRA/TSRA should wane late evening into the
overnight hours. MVFR CIGs will lift to VFR late this morning. MVFR
CIGs are possible again overnight at KSAT/KSSF.  Variable mainly
easterly winds less than 10 KTs will prevail. However wind gusts up
to 40 KTs are possible with the stronger TSRA Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
An upper level trough remains over South Central Texas early this
morning. Two MCVs formed from yesterday's afternoon into evening
showers and thunderstorms, one south of San Antonio and the other
northeast of Austin. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase this morning due to a moist airmass and weak upward forcing
from the trough and MCVs. Models have various locations of the
redevelopment and none capture the locations of the ongoing
redevelopment. With that in mind, as well as, additional surface
boundaries to provide upward forcing will use the blended POPs for
today into this evening with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. PWs near 2 inches and slow or repeat storm motions
indicate a potential for locally heavy rains and possible minor
flooding. Moderate DCAPE suggests a potential for strong winds gusts
with the strongest storms. Expect showers and thunderstorms to wane
tonight with loss of heating while the upper level trough gradually
weakens and drifts to the southwest. Isolated to scattered showers
will redevelop on Saturday due to heating and weak upward forcing
from the trough of a moist airmass. Locally heavy rains and gusty
winds, although possible, will be more isolated. Below normal high
temperatures are expected due to the clouds and rain.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
With the upper trough weakening, Sunday should continue the drying
trend with lower chances for showers and storms. Temperatures are
also on the upward trend with less rain and less clouds in the area.
Highs though should remain near normal for Sunday and Monday. Monday
will be mostly dry with only some stray showers from the coast.

All eyes are on the potentially strong cold front progged for
Tuesday/Wednesday. While both the GFS and Euro show a deep trough dig
into the central US before cutting off a low over the Rockies. The
GFS offers a more progressive run with the low and associated cold
front with a much cooler airmass down into south central Texas. The
Euro is still showing the low hanging out over the Rockies through
Thursday before it lifts to the northeast, keeping the colder air
north of the area. What the models do agree on are the increased rain
chances for mid-week next week. Chance PoP starts on Tuesday
afternoon, then becoming likely throughout the day Wednesday for most
of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  73  89  73  91 /  80  30  50  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  71  88  71  90 /  70  30  50  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  72  88  72  91 /  80  30  50  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            83  71  86  69  89 /  80  30  50  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  74  91  74  92 /  60  20  60  40  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  72  88  71  91 /  80  30  50  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             89  73  91  72  92 /  70  30  50  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  71  88  71  91 /  80  30  50  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  74  92  74  94 /  70  30  50  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  74  90  74  92 /  80  30  50  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           88  74  90  74  91 /  70  30  50  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...YB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
414 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-050915-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
414 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today
into this evening. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday. Locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible with the strongest
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.