Red Flag Warning 15, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
204 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Another couple days of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially east. Starting Sunday, drier
air will move into the region and last through through Thursday.
High temperatures will be dropping to near normal for most of the
period, but breezy west winds will be common Sunday through
Tuesday. Some moisture is expected to move in from the east
Friday with isolated storms again in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday...
Upper low now over southern California and continues to very slowly
move east-southeast, forcing southward the persistent upper high
which has been over New Mexico and northwest Mexico for several
days. This will change our upper flow from northwest to southwest by
Saturday. For tonight, decent moisture and instability in the east
will allow isolated thunderstorms to develop into late evening. SPC
mesoanalysis shows high DCAPE values over the Rio Grande Valley, so
can't rule out the potential for severe winds being generated.

For Saturday, the upper low reaches central Arizona and opens up
into a weakening wave. The increased southwest flow will bring some
additional moisture to the west, while maintaining the moisture in
the east. Thus put POPs back in for all zones, though POPs not very
high. MUCAPE/DCAPE both a bit lower than today so don't expect much
in the way of severe storms. Temperatures should back off a bit,
about 3-5 degrees from today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Upper trough will be weakening and moving across the area
during the evening hours. There will already be some moisture
drawn up from the south with it, so went with 20-30 pops south and
10 pops north. As trough basically washes out, westerly flow sets
up over the area with a surface low over SE CO and lee trough
extending down into the Big Bend area allowing breezy conditions
to get setup. Upper flow turns more southwest ahead of another
trough by Tuesday and a deepening surface low near OK Panhandle.
Winds will be in the 15-25 mph range for Sunday through Tuesday.
Generally dry and seasonable temperatures in the 90s are expected
during this period.

Going into the end of the period, upper high starts to strengthen
over the area as upper low over the west lifts north. This will
bring increasing temperatures with some 100+ degree temperatures
possible Thursday if EC pans out while GFS would fall just a
little short. Both models do bring a little surge of low level
moisture in from the east to southeast Friday and cool temps a few
degrees. GFS more bullish as usual with precipitation with this
moisture push, and with the flow and even some weak instability
showing up on EC, did include some pops to about the Rio Grande
during the day Fri and to about the Divide overnight. Should at
least see some storms over the Sacs with outflows triggering more
over the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected through the period. Developing aft 20Z,
mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley...isolated -TSRA BKN080CB
vsby 5-7SM. These thunderstorms should diminish after 03Z. Wind
gusts near storms 35-50KTS. No significant non-thunderstorm winds
expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Not much change for tonight and Saturday, as isolated thunderstorms
will continue. Some potential for very gusty winds with these
storms, mainly tonight. Change comes Sunday and Monday as dry west
flow develops. Thunderstorm chances are all but eliminated (perhaps
a stray mountain storm still possible), and surface winds increase.
Right now it looks as though Red Flag criteria will not quite be
met, as both winds and RH near the limits. Will have to watch this
for any model changes. A slight chance of thunderstorms return to
the zones Thursday and Friday as upper high moves back over the
area.

Min RHs lowlands for Saturday are 12-16% through Monday, then
lowering slightly mid week. Min RHs for the mountains 15-25%
Saturday through Monday, then down into the teens after. Vent rates
very good-excellent through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75  98  76  97 /  10  10  20   0
Sierra Blanca           68  94  69  92 /  10  10  20   0
Las Cruces              69  96  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
Alamogordo              70  97  69  96 /  10  20  10   0
Cloudcroft              50  76  52  72 /  10  20  20  10
Truth or Consequences   69  94  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
Silver City             65  89  63  85 /   0  20  10   0
Deming                  67  95  63  94 /  10  10  10   0
Lordsburg               66  94  62  93 /   0  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro      76  98  75  97 /  10  10  20   0
Dell City               68  99  69  98 /  10  10  20   0
Fort Hancock            73 101  70  96 /  10  10  20   0
Loma Linda              70  94  70  89 /  10  10  20   0
Fabens                  75  99  73  96 /  10  10  20   0
Santa Teresa            70  97  70  95 /  10  10  20   0
White Sands HQ          76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10   0
Jornada Range           62  95  61  95 /  10  10  10   0
Hatch                   65  97  67  97 /  10  10  10   0
Columbus                71  96  68  94 /  10  10  20   0
Orogrande               71  97  70  94 /  10  10  10   0
Mayhill                 56  82  60  84 /  10  30  20  10
Mescalero               53  86  55  85 /  10  30  10  10
Timberon                52  84  55  81 /  10  20  10  10
Winston                 53  91  56  89 /  10  20  10  10
Hillsboro               62  95  63  92 /  10  20  10   0
Spaceport               64  94  63  95 /  10  10  10   0
Lake Roberts            55  91  50  86 /   0  20  10   0
Hurley                  61  92  60  87 /   0  20  10   0
Cliff                   53  95  53  90 /   0  20   0   0
Mule Creek              54  92  53  88 /   0  10   0   0
Faywood                 63  92  61  89 /  10  20  10   0
Animas                  66  96  64  93 /   0  20  20   0
Hachita                 64  94  61  92 /   0  20  20   0
Antelope Wells          67  94  63  91 /   0  20  30  10
Cloverdale              62  90  61  86 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

17/26/17