Wind Advisory 17, NWS Kansas City, MO

305 
WWUS73 KEAX 181943
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
143 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

MOZ053-182300-
/O.EXB.KEAX.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201218T2300Z/
Bates-
Including the cities of Butler, Adrian, and Rich Hill
143 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Bates County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ028-029-037-043-182300-
/O.EXT.KEAX.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201218T2300Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Platte-Clay-
Jackson-Cass-
Including the cities of Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Pleasanton,
La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing, 
Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee, 
Lenexa, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, 
Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Kansas City, 
Independence, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, and Pleasant Hill
143 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Kansas, Miami, Linn KS, Leavenworth, Wyandotte and 
  Johnson KS Counties. In Missouri, Platte, Clay, Jackson and 
  Cass Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1029 PM CST Thu Dec 17 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 230 PM CST THU DEC 17 2020

Message of the Day: Gusty winds expected Friday starting late
morning and lasting through the day. Southerly winds at 15-20mph
sustained with gusts around 35mph

Another calm cool day for our area as we find ourselves on the
backside of the trough that came through yesterday. Northwest flow
keeps temperatures cool Thursday with highs only reaching into the
upper 30s and mid 40s.

Mild ridging over the next couple of days keeps the weather somewhat
quiet during the day Friday. Mid-level winds turn out of the
southwest funneling in warm air enabling highs temperatures to reach
near 50F. Diurnal mixing promotes swift upper level winds which make
their way to the surface. This results in sustained winds of 15-
20mph with gusts up to 35mph Friday afternoon.

These winds precede another large wave that moves through our area
overnight Friday to Saturday. In a setup that looks very similar to
what we have seen over the past couple of months, strong SW winds
ahead of a trough transition to NW flow behind the front with cooler
temperatures. Usually, this brings a good chance for isolated
precipitation; however, midlevel moisture is significantly lacking.
Course deterministic models (GFS, NAM, etc.) are optimistic with
precip chances albeit those chances are isolated at best. These is
still a lot of disagreement on where it might rain. Coverage will be
dependent on the magnitude of the boundaries accompanying the trough
axis as it moves through. Finer scale, short range models as well as
ensembles do not suggest far less chances for rain. As mentioned
earlier, much of the uncertainty is midlevel moisture availability,
but another is the formation of the trough as it traverses the area.
Most models point at the trough being quite elongated which prevents
moisture from wrapping around the north side which would increase
precip chances. General consensus with neighbors is that
precipitation chances are primarily concentrated to areas east and
south (southern and southeastern MO). Isolated precipitation is
possible east of I-35 with greater chances closer to the eastern
and southeastern sides of our coverage area (Columbia, Sedalia,
Butler, etc.)

Once the front moves through Saturday AM, winds again shift around to
the southwest promoting warm temperatures for the start of next
week. Unfortunately, warm temperatures do not look to stick around
for the holidays as long range guidance suggests a polar plunge late
next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1026 PM CST THU DEC 17 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the bulk of the
period. Low level wind shear will develop early in the morning,
with 2000 ft winds reaching 40 to 50 kts out of the south
southwest. South southwest surface winds will increase through
late morning, with gusts in the afternoon up to 30 to 35 kts.
VFR ceilings will begin to drop late in the period, approaching
MVFR. Will leave mention out at this time and re-address with next
TAF issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
511 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181115-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
511 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo