Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 358 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

A complex forecast is in store for the region today with multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected, some likely to be
severe at times. Currently, a shortwave trough has supported
cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado. Elevated storms have been
ongoing along the CO/NE border throughout the night along the leading
edge of a LLJ and mid level frontogenetic boundary. This complex of
storms will become a major player in the evolution of our severe
weather today as CAM guidance continues to trend towards a MCS
developing from this region. Synoptically, this set up looks likely
as a elevated warm front currently over central OK quickly advects
northward with frontogenesis strengthening this morning. This will
allow the current MUCAPE field of 1000-2000 J/kg over western and
southern KS to move northward providing a favorable path for any MCS
that develops. Corfidi vectors of 40-50kts favor a E then ESE
movement which would take any MCS near the KS/NE border right into
our CWA and possibly the KC Metro.

To complicate this possible scenario, elevated convection is
expected to develop quickly along the elevated frontogenetic
boundary between 850-700mb forming over south central Kansas. With
plenty of MUCAPE and effective shear(50+kts)to work with, these
storms will quickly develop strong updrafts which may become
supercellular in a NW-SE orientation along the boundary. Storm motion
and effective shear vectors will be oriented off the boundary which
may allow these storms to stay discrete longer. This may inhibit a
strong cold pool from developing which would limit the main severe
threat to large hail. The factor that may alter this assessment is
if that MCS can get going and ride along that boundary then winds
may be realized to the surface. If that were to occur the forward
propagation vectors according to soundings would be around 70kts. So
this forecast will very much depend on which of the two features
develops and becomes predominant first. We are leaning towards the
MCS not developing quick enough and the discrete elevated storms
becoming the main mode as the warm front lifts into our area. This
would put possible severe storms near the KS/MO border around 9-10am
with large hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. The MCS may
then become the second round of possible severe weather as it moves
into the area roughly around 1-2pm, according to the CAM solutions.
As the low pressure system passed to the south of the KC Metro in
the late afternoon another possible round of severe weather could
occur along the cold front in our southern CWA near Clinton and
Sedalia with wind becoming a bigger player. The main threat with
this third feature looks to be more of an issue for Springfield, but
would be worth monitoring if things shifted slightly north.
Stratiform precipitation may lag behind through most of the late
afternoon and evening depending on how big this complex gets today,
which will keep us rather cool with highs only in the low to mid
60s.

Low clouds and an inverted surface trough over northern Missouri
will keep a good portion of our area cooler going into Tuesday. A 10
degree temperatures gradient will set up from KC to Kirksville with
67 to 57F forecasted as KC clears out later in the afternoon. A fall
like synoptic pattern will then set up with straight northerly flow
and high pressure in place through Thursday. This will keep our
temperatures mild with highs in the low to mid 60s through the work
week. Some isolated showers may form up over central Missouri
Wednesday, but not all guidance is on board with the shortwave that
will cause that, so PoPs remain on the lower end. Models continue to
show a quick moving shortwave in the NW flow aloft pushing through
Friday, brining rain chances back to the region. Low temperatures
Saturday are worth monitoring as we could see frost-like
temperatures over northern Missouri Saturday morning as a very
unseasonably cold air mass overtakes the eastern portion of the
country, with us being on the western edge.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

This forecast period will be very active with impacts to aviation
with multiple rounds of thunderstorms early in the period and
IFR/MVFR ceilings in the evening through the overnight hours.
Scattered thunderstorms are forming over central and western
Kansas currently. These storms are expected to build into the
KS/MO state line region by 15-16Z with the greatest chance of on-
station thunderstorms being after 17-18Z. These storms will likely
cause impacts and could become severe with damaging wind gusts and
large hail possible, especially along and south of the Missouri
River. As the thunderstorms start to move to the east of the
terminals a IFR ceilings will quickly overtake the area. The rain
will likely stop around midnight, but the IFR ceilings will
persist overnight until just before sunrise tomorrow when they
rise to MVFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
518 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
518 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will move into the area later this morning and persist
through the afternoon hours. A few of these storms may be severe,
especially south of Interstate 70. Heavy rainfall leading to
localized flooding will also be possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected for the remainder of the week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo