Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
604 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 420 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2020

The cold front is currently draped across northwest MO to Kansas
City, extending SSW from there toward southeastern Kansas. Showers
are ongoing across NW Missouri and eastern Kansas, and these
showers will continue to move the northeast over the next few
hours, and will eventually take on a more eastward progression as
the cold front currently across eastern Kansas swings west to
east through the region this morning. A few thunderstorms may be
possible later this morning as surface based instability will
increase ever so slightly toward 500 J/kg. The front should be
exiting the region to the east by around noon or shortly
thereafter, with cloud cover thinning by this afternoon and clear
skies returning by this evening. Temperatures this afternoon will
vary widely, with NW Missouri remaining quite chilly and
locations across central Missouri reaching the upper 60s to near
70 degrees before frontal passage later today. Surface high
pressure will build in rapidly behind the cold front tonight, with
clear skies and calm winds allowing for excellent radiational
cooling. Overnight lows tonight will range from the mid 20s across
northern Missouri with near 30 degrees elsewhere.

Tranquil weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday, with
highs in the 50s on Wednesday and a very subtle warm up on
Thursday with highs reaching the 60 to the low 60s for locations
south of Interstate 70.

A quick moving shortwave trough will come across the Northern
Plains and through the Upper Midwest on Thursday, and will send
another reinforcing shot of cooler air through the region on
Thursday evening, with surface high pressure building in over the
region once again. This will make for another cold night on
Thursday night into Friday morning, with lows ranging from the mid
20s to near 30 degrees. High temperatures on Friday will only
rebound to the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Another shortwave trough will approach the region from the
southwest on Friday night into Saturday, and will bring another
solid chance for showers overnight Friday into Saturday afternoon.
This should quickly exit the region to the east by Saturday
evening.

Looking ahead to Sunday and Monday of next week, high temperatures
at this time look to be in the 50s across much of the region
under mostly clear skies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2020

Showers are ongoing across the region this morning as a cold
front makes its way through. There have only been a couple of
lightning strikes so far this morning, and would expect the
primary precipitation mode to be showers, but cannot completely
rule out a lightning strike or two in the vicinity of the
terminals. Showers will continue over the next several hours
before moving east of the terminal by around 17z this morning,
with brief periods of heavier showers temporarily lowering VSBYs.
There may be just enough instability around to get some better
organized showers or even storms that could produce some gusts up
to 30 knots or so, but the odds of anything like this impacting
any of the terminals is low. Ceilings at the moment range from
LIFR to low end MVFR, with there likely being some variability
between these categories this morning before becoming higher end
MVFR by early afternoon and finally VFR for good by late
afternoon. Winds following the frontal passage will become
westerly and breezy, with sustained winds to 15 knots and gusts to
25 to even 30 knots this afternoon before relaxing by this
evening. By tonight, winds will become generally calm and skies
will clear.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BMW
Aviation...BMW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1039 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

MOZ025-101715-
Macon MO-
1039 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MACON COUNTY UNTIL 1115
AM CST...

At 1039 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Callao, or 13 miles northeast of Marceline, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Plata, Atlanta, New Cambria, Elmer and Ethel.

LAT...LON 3973 9274 3981 9285 3985 9285 4004 9264
      4004 9245 4003 9234 3995 9235 3995 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 228DEG 38KT 3982 9274

Blair

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