River Flood Warning 81, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 213 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

Southerly flow through pretty much the entire column has resulted in
a very humid air mass with precipitable water values pushing max
values or at least above the 95th percentile. Breaks in the
clouds earlier in the day resulted in temperatures nearing or
exceeding convective temperatures with CU and showers and storms
quickly developing as a result. With around 1000 to as much as
2000 J/kg of CAPE, in this environment, showers and storms will
become more widespread through the afternoon across mainly eastern
KS and western MO. While each cell will be relatively short-lived
in any given location, each cell will be very efficient in its
rainfall and any area that sees multiple cells could quickly pile
up the rainfall with pockets of 1 to 3 inch rainfalls likely. Will
keep the flash flood watch going in its current configuration as
a result. The threat of severe weather looks low but really can't
be ruled out at this time. The wave to our west is enhancing the
shear in the area which would lead better storm organization.
Also, with no real surface focus and cells developing
simultaneously, there's a number of mergers going on and this
should limit storm organization. With low LCLs in the relatively
stronger shear can't rule out a brief tornado but overall, hail
and gusty winds look like the main threat, in addition to the
heavy rain threat.

There will be drop off in activity tonight as this initial wave
moves away. But another wave will move northward, likely after
midnight, and spread more widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms to eastern KS and western MO through the tomorrow
morning. With a similar moisture profile, storms could again
produce locally heavy rainfall across eastern KS and western MO.
Instability will be weaker so not expecting severe weather.

The upper wave responsible for this mess will cutoff to our
southwest. As a result we'll see continued chances for precipitation
through at least Thursday/ Thursday night. Near to below normal
temperatures are also expected in this pattern. The weather should
begin to quiet down for the weekend as the low moves away from the
area and an upper ridge builds eastward into the middle of the
country.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

Storms moving north along the Kansas-Missouri border have shifted
just north and east of the terminals, but stormy activity is
expected to move back in early in the morning as another complex
of storms tracks north along the border. This should allow VFR
conditions to prevail for the most part this evening. However,
once the early morning storm complex lifts up through here all
bets are off as CIGs and storms may bubble up through the morning
and afternoon hours. Confidence is low beyond the early morning
convection.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MOZ001>008-011>016-
     020>024-028>031-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
500 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
500 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected today into tonight. A
couple strong storms are possible this afternoon along with the
potential for heavy rainfall.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

On and off storm chances continue through Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
752 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOONVILLE               38.96N 92.74W
05/25/2020                   COOPER             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED 2.22 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS
            THAN AN HOUR. GULLY BEHIND HOUSE FLOODED AND
            OVERFLOWING WITH DAMAGE TO GULLY. PONDING IN
            BACKYARD.

&&

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
807 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

MOZ008-017-025-260145-
Schuyler MO-Macon MO-Adair MO-
807 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLER AND
NORTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Atlanta, or near La Plata, moving north at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kirksville, La Plata, Queen City, Greentop, Brashear, Gibbs, Millard,
Elmer and Kirksville Regional.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 9267 4036 9268 4045 9251 4037 9234
      3995 9235 3995 9229 3989 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 181DEG 40KT 3995 9252

Leighton

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
859 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TORNADO          1 NE MENDON             39.60N 93.12W
05/25/2020                   CHARITON           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED REPORT. BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF A TORNADO
            AT THE CORNER OF MIKE ROAD AND VERNON
            KENNEDY AVENUE NEAR MENDON. SOME MINOR
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS NOTED AT THAT
            LOCATION. TIME WAS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
902 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONCORDIA               38.98N 93.57W
05/25/2020                   LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REORT. SEVERAL TREE BRANCHES WERE
            DOWN IN CONCORDIA, ALONG WITH SOME MINOR
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
            60 TO 65 MPH. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
940 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E SPICKARD            40.24N 93.48W
05/25/2020                   GRUNDY             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT. LARGE TREE LIMB SPLIT NEAR
            SPICKARD. PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED TO THE
            OFFICE VIA BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&