River Flood Warning 66, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
655 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 158 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

Primary forecast focus is on this morning into Saturday.

Convection across western and central Missouri will continue through
3 to 4 AM. 0-3 km shear remains relatively oriented perpendicular to
the line of convection. Compared to forward propagation Corfidi
vectors and confirmed by radar trends, this line has maintained a
decent shear-cold pool balance. With a stout low level jet feeding
into the region, enhanced mesovortices continue to crop up along the
line, indicating strong pockets of strong to severe pockets of wind.
This line will continue to build east and southeast across the
Ozarks early this morning.

For the remainder of the morning, lingering showers across portions
of northwestern Missouri should dissipate through 4 to 5 AM CDT.
Through midday, the surface front is expected to push well into the
Ozark Mountains. The region will remain under weak 500mb ridging,
with lingering chances for light precipitation across southwestern
Missouri through the day.

After sunset, thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east
in response to the western trough digging eastward off the front
range. The stalled frontal boundary over the Ozarks will lift back
north, remaining the focus for storms through the late evening and
overnight. The severe storm risk hinges on just how far this
monring's boundary sags southward, with current indications
suggesting it will reach near the Ouachita's across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas. A very unstable airmass will develop north of
this boundary before it begins to lift back north, with over 3000 to
4000 J/Kg of SBCAPE. The window for severe storms will likely exist
over the Ozarks through the afternoon into the evening, with severe
potential dropping off farther north toward northeast Kansas and
west and northwest Missouri through the morning.

With the 500mb trough wrapping up and continuing east across the
northern Plains into Sunday, expect a pleasant end to the weekend,
with rain ending in the early morning and temperatures climbing into
the lower 70s. Fairly quiet and warmer weather will usher in the new
work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

Drizzle and MVFR/IFR ceilings will improve later this morning,
becoming VFR by 15-16Z as overnight convection and outflow
boundary pushes into northeast Oklahoma and northern Arkansas.
Later this evening, this boundary will start to lift back to the
north with storms working north during the overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...PietrychaP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
454 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
454 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight
 generally south of Highway 50. Hail and strong winds will be the
 primary threats.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are expected to continue
 into Saturday morning as storms push northward through the
 area. Hail, strong winds, and brief heavy downpours will be the
 primary threats

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo